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Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Leisure

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.43: Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.63; Below-average business quality.

Peloton Interactive is a connected fitness company with approximately 6 million Members as of June 30, 2025, offering Bike, Tread, and Row hardware plus subscription content in the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria. Revenue comes from Connected Fitness Product... Read more

$5.43+30.6% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#10 of 13 Leisure
Stop $5.05Target $7.09(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$7.88+45.0%16 analysts
$7.09our TP
$5.43price
$7.88mean
$20

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.43: Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.63; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: limited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners
Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)24.0
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA18.1
Profit Mgn-2.1%
ROE
Rev Growth-2.6%
Beta2.38
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.63bearish
IV105%elevated
Max Pain$1-90.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierlimited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners
    10-K Item 1A: 'We rely on a limited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners for our Connected Fitness Products.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-17Item 5.02LOW
    Jen Cotter (Chief Content Officer) to transition to non-executive advisory role effective March 31, 2026. No disagreement with company cited. No permanent CCO successor named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-11Item 5.02MEDIUM
    Liz Coddington stepping down as CFO effective March 27, 2026, to pursue external opportunity. Saqib Baig (Chief Accounting Officer) appointed Interim CFO effective March 27, 2026. Permanent CFO successor not yet named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Volatile — 5.2% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Beta
2.1
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Short Interest
3.3
Days To Cover
7.0
Elevated put/call: 2.63High IV: 105%Above max pain $0Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.0
Support Resistance
1.3
52w Position
1.8
Gap
6.0
GatesEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 5.3<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.3>=4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
74 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.21Resistance $5.62

Price Targets

$5
$7
A.Upside+30.6%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0)
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PTON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.43: Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 2.0:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.63; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $5.05. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PTON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.09 (+30.6% upside). Prior stop was $5.05. Stop-loss: $5.05.

What are the risks of investing in PTON?

Concentration risk — Supplier: limited number of suppliers, contract manufacturers, and logistics partners; Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0).

Is PTON overvalued or undervalued?

Peloton Interactive, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 24.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PTON?

28 analysts cover PTON with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $8.

What does Peloton Interactive, Inc. do?Peloton Interactive is a connected fitness company with approximately 6 million Members as of June 30, 2025, offering...

Peloton Interactive is a connected fitness company with approximately 6 million Members as of June 30, 2025, offering Bike, Tread, and Row hardware plus subscription content in the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria. Revenue comes from Connected Fitness Product hardware sales and recurring monthly/annual subscription fees from paid Members.

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