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Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Leisure

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.22: Risk below floor (2.1 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 9.48; Below long-term trend.

Peloton is a connected fitness company offering Bike, Tread, Row, and app-based workouts to approximately 6 million Members in the U.S., UK, Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria. Revenue comes from Connected Fitness Product hardware sales and recurring All-Access and App... Read more

$5.22+38.2% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#6 of 12 Leisure
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield17.57%
Stop $4.86Target $7.23(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$8.03+53.9%16 analysts
$7.23our TP
$5.22price
$8.03mean
$20

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.22: Risk below floor (2.1 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 9.48; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Peloton Interactive, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Risk below floor (2.1 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)87.2
P/E (Fwd)22.5
Mkt Cap$2.3B
EV/EBITDA12.7
Profit Mgn0.9%
ROE
Rev Growth1.1%
Beta2.50
DividendNone
Rating analysts28

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C9.48bearish
IV79%elevated
Max Pain$1-90.4% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Volatile — 5.7% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static

Volatility
0.0
Put Call
0.0
Implied Vol
0.2
Beta
1.7
Max Pain Risk
3.0
Short Interest
3.4
Days To Cover
6.7
Elevated put/call: 9.48High IV: 79%Above max pain $0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.7
Value Rank
3.3
Quality Rank
3.3
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
41 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $4.90Resistance $6.04

Price Targets

$5
$7
A.Upside+38.5%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Risk below floor (2.1 < 3.0)
! Momentum score 4.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PTON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $5.22: Risk below floor (2.1 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.5/10 and A.R:R 3.3:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 9.48; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: RSI 41 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $4.86. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PTON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $7.23 (+38.2% upside). Prior stop was $4.86. Stop-loss: $4.86.

What are the risks of investing in PTON?

Risk below floor (2.1 < 3.0).

Is PTON overvalued or undervalued?

Peloton Interactive, Inc. trades at a P/E of 87.2 (forward 22.5). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PTON?

28 analysts cover PTON with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $8.

What does Peloton Interactive, Inc. do?Peloton is a connected fitness company offering Bike, Tread, Row, and app-based workouts to approximately 6 million...

Peloton is a connected fitness company offering Bike, Tread, Row, and app-based workouts to approximately 6 million Members in the U.S., UK, Canada, Germany, Australia, and Austria. Revenue comes from Connected Fitness Product hardware sales and recurring All-Access and App Membership subscription fees; the company is restructuring after peak-pandemic demand with ongoing cost reduction initiatives.

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