Life Time operates a fitness membership business delivering three of its last four quarters above consensus with a positive technical backdrop, but free cash flow is deeply negative relative to net income, revenue is heavily concentrated in dues and enrollment fees, and with only 5.1% headroom to the analyst target and a reward-to-risk ratio below 1, the current entry point offers insufficient upside relative to the potential drawdown.
Thesis pillars
- Earnings Beat Streak Delivery↓Deteriorating
- Negative Free Cash Flow Quality→Stable
- Membership Revenue Concentration Risk→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 24, 2026· older than 90 days
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. (LTH) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Leisure
Sell if holding. At $47.39, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%).
Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million individual members across approximately 873,000 memberships. Subscription membership dues and enrollment fees represent over 72% of Center revenue, with average... Read more
Sell if holding. At $47.39, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (positive momentum, earnings proximity 110d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and clean insider activity. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — Life Time Group Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Concerned Shareholders of Emerita Resources Requisition Meeting Regarding Falcon Project Dispute — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Life Time Group Holdings Falls 2% Ahead of Earnings - StocksToTrade — StocksToTrade Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Life Time's valuation presents 'compelling opportunity' before Q3 results -- Mizuho (LTH:NYSE) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS LTH Maintained by Morgan Stanley -- Price Target Raised to $54 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Life Time Group Holdings Inc. Common Stock (LTH) Financial Statements - Pluang — Pluang Oct 27, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductmembership dues and enrollment fees72%10-K Item 1: 'our membership dues and enrollment fees now representing over 72% of our total Center revenue for the year ended December 31, 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-20Item 5.02LOWDirector Andres Small resigned effective May 20, 2026; replaced by Rachael Wagner appointed as independent Class III director with term expiring at 2027 annual meeting. Board remains at 12 members, 10 independent.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-11Item 5.02LOWDirector Alejandro Santo Domingo gave notice of intention to resign from Board effective March 31, 2026. No successor named. No reason cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $47.39, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $44.07. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $51.84 (+9.4% upside). Prior stop was $44.07. Stop-loss: $44.07.
Concentration risk — Product: membership dues and enrollment fees (72.0%); Thin upside margin: 9.4%; Near 52-week high (1.2% away).
Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 25.6 (forward 23.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
20 analysts rate LTH, with a consensus score of 4.3/5. 15 analysts publish price targets averaging $58.
What does Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. do?Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million...
Life Time operates 189 resort-like athletic country clubs across 31 U.S. states and Canada, serving nearly 1.6 million individual members across approximately 873,000 memberships. Subscription membership dues and enrollment fees represent over 72% of Center revenue, with average annual revenue per center membership of $3,531 in 2025. The company employs over 44,000 team members and targets affluent suburban and urban markets.