Pool Corporation carries an excellent 34% return on equity and beats earnings in 3 of 4 quarters, but a death cross in place, a put-to-call ratio of 4.53, and heavy geographic concentration in four states combine with flat top-line growth to make this a hold-only situation with meaningful near-term downside risk.
Thesis pillars
- High Roe Peer Quality→Stable
- Death Cross And Weak Momentum↑Improving
- Geographic Concentration Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pool Corporation (POOL) Stock Analysis
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. At $184.62, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%).
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products, operating 456 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia as of December 31, 2025. Approximately 95% of 2025 sales came from North... Read more
Sell if holding. At $184.62, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 47d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Pool Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Stock Could Be 22.6% Undervalued as Recurring Demand Supports Fair Value - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS Pool Corp. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Pool Stocks Sink as Consumers Cautious Despite Scorching Summer - Bloomberg.com — Bloomberg.com negative
Generated 2026-09-04T15:02:10Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia, Florida, Texas and Arizona53%10-K Item 1: 'Our primary markets with the highest concentration of swimming pools are California, Florida, Texas and Arizona, collectively representing approximately 53% of our 2025 net sales'
- LOWSupplierPentair plc10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
- LOWSupplierZodiac Pool Systems10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
- LOWSupplierHayward Holdings10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUMPeter D. Arvan and Pool Corporation mutually agreed he would cease as President and CEO effective May 4, 2026. John B. Watwood (joined Jan 2026 as EVP) appointed President and CEO. Arvan also resigned from the Board. No disagreement with company operations cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWAmendment No. 1 to May 4, 2026 8-K providing separation agreement details for Peter Arvan's departure: 54 weeks base salary, 12 months health insurance reimbursement, potential vesting of up to 55,156 performance RSAs and 21,870 RSAs subject to non-competition compliance.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $184.62, A.R:R 0.7:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $175.31. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $190.97 (+3.6% upside). Prior stop was $175.31. Stop-loss: $175.31.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.6%; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Pool Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.9 (forward 15.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover POOL with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $220.
What does Pool Corporation do?Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure...
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products, operating 456 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia as of December 31, 2025. Approximately 95% of 2025 sales came from North America through five distribution networks serving roughly 125,000 customers, primarily pool service businesses, builders, and specialty retailers.