Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.1 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 7.6 |
| PEG | 1.0 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 16.2x
- ▸PEG: 7.71
POOL · Why this verdict
Why Pool (POOL) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.3 |
| Gross margin | 1.9 |
| Op margin | 2.9 |
| Net margin | 3.8 |
| Current ratio | 6.6 |
| FCF quality | 4.3 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 34%
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 55% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
3.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.0 |
| EPS growth | 2.4 |
Momentum
5.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 0.5 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 3.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.0 |
| Price target | 8.7 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.35 (n=8)
- ▸Analyst upside: 32%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.0/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
1.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.7 |
| support resistance | 2.0 |
| 52w position | 1.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.0 |
| days to cover | 6.6 |
| volatility | 3.9 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.7 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 6.6 |
| debt equity | 4.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.93
- ▸High IV: 70%
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 HIGH, 2 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 1.6 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 267.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:5.6>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:37d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot
Warning (2)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.6>=5.0 recovering
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
1.42
Upside
+15.2%
Downside
10.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.5 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 6.3) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:1.4<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 1.42 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 6.3, Peer rank at 6.0, and Value at 5.9; the weakest are Technical at 1.4, Growth at 3.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.42 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.