Pool Corporation carries an excellent 34% return on equity and beats earnings in 3 of 4 quarters, but a death cross in place, a put-to-call ratio of 4.53, and heavy geographic concentration in four states combine with flat top-line growth to make this a hold-only situation with meaningful near-term downside risk.
Thesis pillars
- High Roe Peer Quality→Stable
- Death Cross And Weak Momentum↓Deteriorating
- Geographic Concentration Risk↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pool Corporation (POOL) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $164.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products, operating 456 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia as of December 31, 2025. Approximately 95% of 2025 sales came from North... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $164.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 18, MACD bearish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 26d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-26Recent Developments — Pool Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView neutral
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Stock Could Be 22.6% Undervalued as Recurring Demand Supports Fair Value - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS Pool Corp. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch negative
- NEWS Pool Stocks Sink as Consumers Cautious Despite Scorching Summer - Bloomberg.com — Bloomberg.com negative
Generated 2026-09-26T07:07:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia, Florida, Texas and Arizona53%10-K Item 1: 'Our primary markets with the highest concentration of swimming pools are California, Florida, Texas and Arizona, collectively representing approximately 53% of our 2025 net sales'
- LOWSupplierPentair plc10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
- LOWSupplierZodiac Pool Systems10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
- LOWSupplierHayward Holdings10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUMPeter D. Arvan and Pool Corporation mutually agreed he would cease as President and CEO effective May 4, 2026. John B. Watwood (joined Jan 2026 as EVP) appointed President and CEO. Arvan also resigned from the Board. No disagreement with company operations cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWAmendment No. 1 to May 4, 2026 8-K providing separation agreement details for Peter Arvan's departure: 54 weeks base salary, 12 months health insurance reimbursement, potential vesting of up to 55,156 performance RSAs and 21,870 RSAs subject to non-competition compliance.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $164.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 18, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $155.57. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $188.79 (+14.5% upside). Prior stop was $155.57. Stop-loss: $155.57.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.3): -0.5.
Pool Corporation trades at a P/E of 15.3 (forward 13.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
24 analysts cover POOL with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $217.
What does Pool Corporation do?Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure...
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products, operating 456 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia as of December 31, 2025. Approximately 95% of 2025 sales came from North America through five distribution networks serving roughly 125,000 customers, primarily pool service businesses, builders, and specialty retailers.