Pool Corporation (POOL) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $178.54 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Pentair plc (20.0%).
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and leisure products, plus a leading irrigation and landscape maintenance product distributor, operating 456 sales centers in North America, Europe, and Australia. Revenue comes... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $178.54 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Pentair plc (20.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Recent Developments — Pool Corporation
Material events (past 30 days)
- May 4, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: Peter D. Arvan (President & CEO) and Company mutually agreed to end his service effective May 4, 2026; no disagreement cited. John B. Watwood appointed President & CEO effective May 4, 2026. Arvan also resigned from Board.
Latest news
- A Look at Pool Corp (POOL) After 4.0% Gain -- GF Value $339.77 v - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- Pool Corp. stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day - MarketWatch — MarketWatch positive
- Stifel reiterates Hold on Pool Corp stock ahead of earnings - Investing.com — Investing.com neutral
- Pool Corporation to Host Investor Day on May 12, 2026, in Phoenix, Arizona - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- Pool Corporation Announces 2026 Investor Day - marketscreener.com — marketscreener.com neutral
Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia, Florida, Texas and Arizona53%10-K Item 1: 'California, Florida, Texas and Arizona, collectively representing approximately 53% of our 2025 net sales'
- HIGHSupplierPentair plc20%10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest suppliers are Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
- MEDIUMSupplierZodiac Pool Systems12%10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
- MEDIUMSupplierHayward Holdings11%10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUMPeter D. Arvan (President & CEO) and Company mutually agreed to end his service effective May 4, 2026; no disagreement cited. John B. Watwood appointed President & CEO effective May 4, 2026. Arvan also resigned from Board.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWAmendment providing Arvan severance terms: base salary for 54 weeks, health insurance reimbursement 12 months, continued vesting of up to 55,156 performance shares and 21,870 restricted shares subject to non-competition compliance.SEC filing →
- 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOWCarlos A. Sabater informed Board he will not stand for re-election as director at 2026 annual meeting; departure not due to any disagreement with Company.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $178.54 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Pentair plc (20.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 25, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $167.50. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $226.63 (+26.9% upside). Prior stop was $167.50. Stop-loss: $167.50.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Pentair plc (20.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.3).
Pool Corporation trades at a P/E of 16.4 (forward 14.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts cover POOL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $261.
What does Pool Corporation do?Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and leisure...
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and leisure products, plus a leading irrigation and landscape maintenance product distributor, operating 456 sales centers in North America, Europe, and Australia. Revenue comes from selling to approximately 125,000 customers (pool builders, service companies, contractors, retailers) with no single customer exceeding 10% of 2025 sales.