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Pool Corporation (POOL) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $214.96, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas, Arizona (53.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.5%.

Pool Corporation is the largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and irrigation/landscape products, operating 456 sales centers in North America, Europe, and Australia and serving ~125,000 customers. No single customer represents 10% or more of 2025... Read more

$214.96+6.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#8 of 17 Industrial Distribution
Stop $199.67Target $228.57(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.7:1
Analyst target$262.73+22.2%11 analysts
$228.57our TP
$214.96price
$262.73mean
$300

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $214.96, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas, Arizona (53.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.5%. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 83d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.83)
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas, Arizona (53.0%)
Thin upside margin: 6.5%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.3
P/E (Fwd)17.4
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA14.4
Profit Mgn7.6%
ROE34.2%
Rev Growth6.2%
Beta1.26
Dividend2.39%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.72neutral
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$150-30.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicCalifornia, Florida, Texas, Arizona53%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our primary markets with the highest concentration of swimming pools are California, Florida, Texas and Arizona, collectively representing approximately 53% of our 2025 net sales'
  • MEDIUMSupplierPentair plc20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Our largest suppliers are Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-13Item 5.02LOW
    Director Carlos A. Sabater notified Board on February 12, 2026 that he will not stand for re-election at the 2026 annual meeting. Not due to any disagreements with the Company on any matter.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.4
Revenue Growth
4.0
GatesMomentum 1.7<4.5A.R:R 0.7 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 83d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $195.49Resistance $249.04

Price Targets

$200
$229
A.Upside+6.3%
A.R:R0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING
! Momentum score 1.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.7:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-23 (83d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
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Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is POOL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $214.96, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas, Arizona (53.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.5%. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $228.57 (+6.3%), stop $199.67 (−7.7%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the POOL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $228.57 (+6.5% upside). Target $228.57 (+6.3%), stop $199.67 (−7.7%), A.R:R 0.7:1. Stop-loss: $199.67.

What are the risks of investing in POOL?

Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas, Arizona (53.0%); Thin upside margin: 6.5%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.4): -0.5.

Is POOL overvalued or undervalued?

Pool Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.3 (forward 17.4). TrendMatrix value score: 5.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about POOL?

23 analysts cover POOL with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $263.

What does Pool Corporation do?Pool Corporation is the largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and irrigation/landscape...

Pool Corporation is the largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and irrigation/landscape products, operating 456 sales centers in North America, Europe, and Australia and serving ~125,000 customers. No single customer represents 10% or more of 2025 net sales; California, Florida, Texas, and Arizona collectively represented ~53% of 2025 net sales. The three largest suppliers (Pentair 20%, Zodiac 12%, Hayward 11%) collectively accounted for ~43% of product costs.

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