Pool Corporation carries an excellent 34% return on equity and beats earnings in 3 of 4 quarters, but a death cross in place, a put-to-call ratio of 4.53, and heavy geographic concentration in four states combine with flat top-line growth to make this a hold-only situation with meaningful near-term downside risk.
Thesis pillars
- High Roe Peer Quality→Stable
- Death Cross And Weak Momentum↑Improving
- Geographic Concentration Risk↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
Pool Corporation (POOL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $219.26 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%).
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products, operating 456 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia as of December 31, 2025. Approximately 95% of 2025 sales came from North... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $219.26 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 104d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
No fresh coverage since Oct 21, 2026
Recent Developments — Pool Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Pool Corp earnings up next as margin pressure tests distributor By Investing.com - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - StockStory — StockStory Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Reports Earnings Tomorrow: What To Expect - TradingView — TradingView Oct 21, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Pool (POOL) Stock Could Trade At a Discount On a 64% Slide - Simply Wall Street — Simply Wall Street Oct 20, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 21, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:59:11Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicCalifornia, Florida, Texas and Arizona53%10-K Item 1: 'Our primary markets with the highest concentration of swimming pools are California, Florida, Texas and Arizona, collectively representing approximately 53% of our 2025 net sales'
- LOWSupplierPentair plc10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
- LOWSupplierZodiac Pool Systems10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
- LOWSupplierHayward Holdings10-K Item 1A: 'Pentair plc, Zodiac Pool Systems, Inc. and Hayward Holdings, Inc., which accounted for 20%, 12% and 11%, respectively, of the costs of products we sold in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-04Item 5.02MEDIUMPeter D. Arvan and Pool Corporation mutually agreed he would cease as President and CEO effective May 4, 2026. John B. Watwood (joined Jan 2026 as EVP) appointed President and CEO. Arvan also resigned from the Board. No disagreement with company operations cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-08Item 5.02LOWAmendment No. 1 to May 4, 2026 8-K providing separation agreement details for Peter Arvan's departure: 54 weeks base salary, 12 months health insurance reimbursement, potential vesting of up to 55,156 performance RSAs and 21,870 RSAs subject to non-competition compliance.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $219.26 — A.R:R is negative (-1.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 80. Prior stop was $203.91. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $182.12 reached (−16.9% from $219.26); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $203.91. Stop-loss: $203.91.
Concentration risk — Geographic: California, Florida, Texas and Arizona (53.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Pool Corporation trades at a P/E of 20.1 (forward 19.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
23 analysts rate POOL, with a consensus score of 3.6/5. 12 analysts publish price targets averaging $209.
What does Pool Corporation do?Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure...
Pool Corporation is the world's largest wholesale distributor of swimming pool supplies, equipment, and related leisure products, operating 456 sales centers across North America, Europe, and Australia as of December 31, 2025. Approximately 95% of 2025 sales came from North America through five distribution networks serving roughly 125,000 customers, primarily pool service businesses, builders, and specialty retailers.