Fastenal is a genuinely high-quality compounding franchise — wide economic moat, 34% return on equity, best-in-class margins of approximately 15%, and a perfect financial health score — but at 33.6 times forward earnings with a PEG of 3.32, the stock is priced for excellence at a level where the analyst consensus target has already been reached; uninspiring recent earnings delivery and elevated options defensiveness compound the case for patience over new exposure.
Thesis pillars
- Premium Quality Franchise→Stable
- Rich Valuation Limits Upside→Stable
- Soft Earnings Delivery↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 5, 2026· older than 90 days
Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Industrials · Industrial Distribution
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.33 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.8% away).
Fastenal sells fasteners and industrial/construction supplies through 1,595 branch locations in 25 countries, supported by 15 North American distribution centers, with 24,489 employees at year-end 2025. Revenue is business-to-business, with manufacturing customers generating... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.33 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Fastenal Company
Latest news
- NEWS $1000 Invested In Fastenal 10 Years Ago Would Be Worth This Much Today — benzinga Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Fastenal (FAST) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool Oct 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Why Fastenal (FAST) Shares Are Plunging Today - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 14, 2026 negative
- NEWS Maintenance and Repair Distributors Stocks Q2 Results: Benchmarking Fastenal (NASDAQ:FAST) - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 14, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Why Fastenal (FAST) Shares Are Plunging Today - StockStory — StockStory Oct 14, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:54:38Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWProductfastener product line31%10-K Item 1: 'Our fastener product line, which is primarily sold under the Fastenal product name, represented 30.5% of our consolidated sales in 2025.'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-04-29Item 5.02LOWAt 2026 Annual Meeting on April 23, 2026, shareholders approved the Fastenal Company Employee Restricted Stock Unit Plan and the Non-Employee Director Stock and Restricted Stock Unit Plan. Routine compensatory plan approval; no officer departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $52.33 — A.R:R is negative (-1.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (1.8% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 53, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $49.81. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $44.43 reached (−15.1% from $52.33); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $49.81. Stop-loss: $49.81.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (1.8% away); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Fastenal Company trades at a P/E of 42.5 (forward 37.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
26 analysts rate FAST, with a consensus score of 3.4/5. 13 analysts publish price targets averaging $51.
What does Fastenal Company do?Fastenal sells fasteners and industrial/construction supplies through 1,595 branch locations in 25 countries, supported...
Fastenal sells fasteners and industrial/construction supplies through 1,595 branch locations in 25 countries, supported by 15 North American distribution centers, with 24,489 employees at year-end 2025. Revenue is business-to-business, with manufacturing customers generating $6.2 billion of 2025 sales and non-manufacturing customers generating $2.0 billion. The Fastenal Managed Inventory platform (FASTVend, FASTBin, FASTStock) accounted for 44.7% of sales in 2025.