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Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation.

Fastenal distributes industrial and construction supplies through 1,595 locations in 25 countries, primarily serving manufacturing and construction customers via Fastenal Managed Inventory (FMI), branch, and eBusiness channels. Revenue is B2B-focused with 2025 manufacturing... Read more

$44.53+8.7% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#6 of 17 Industrial Distribution
Stop $42.16Target $48.42(resistance)A.R:R -1.7:1
Analyst target$46.49+4.4%12 analysts
$48.42our TP
$44.53price
$46.49mean
$40
$55

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 73d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
High-quality business
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Expensive valuation
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)38.7
P/E (Fwd)32.0
Mkt Cap$50.2B
EV/EBITDA26.6
Profit Mgn15.4%
ROE33.8%
Rev Growth12.4%
Beta0.84
Dividend2.10%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9

Options Flow

P/C1.88bearish
IV52%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Macd
0.9
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.4
Uptrend pullback (RSI 31) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Ev Ebitda
0.0
Pe
3.2
Forward Pe
3.6
Peg Ratio
3.6
Analyst Target
4.0
Ps
6.2
Forward P/E: 32.0xPEG: 3.15
GatesMomentum 2.9<4.5A.R:R -1.7=NEGATIVEInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 73d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
31 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $43.29Resistance $49.41

Price Targets

$42
$48
A.Upside+8.7%
A.R:R-1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.2% upside)
! Momentum score 2.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-13 (73d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is FAST stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $44.53 — A.R:R is negative (-1.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Expensive valuation. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $42.16. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the FAST stock price target?

Take-profit target: $48.42 (+8.7% upside). Prior stop was $42.16. Stop-loss: $42.16.

What are the risks of investing in FAST?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Expensive valuation; Negative momentum.

Is FAST overvalued or undervalued?

Fastenal Company trades at a P/E of 38.7 (forward 32.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.5/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about FAST?

23 analysts cover FAST with a consensus score of 2.9/5. Average price target: $46.

What does Fastenal Company do?Fastenal distributes industrial and construction supplies through 1,595 locations in 25 countries, primarily serving...

Fastenal distributes industrial and construction supplies through 1,595 locations in 25 countries, primarily serving manufacturing and construction customers via Fastenal Managed Inventory (FMI), branch, and eBusiness channels. Revenue is B2B-focused with 2025 manufacturing segment sales of approximately $6.2 billion; it employs 24,489 people.

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