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DNOW Inc. (DNOW) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-06). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.33: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend.

DNOW Inc. distributes pipe, valves, fittings, pumps, and fabricated process and production equipment to energy and industrial markets from approximately 300 locations with ~5,300 employees; it acquired MRC Global in November 2025. Revenue comes from sales to upstream, midstream,... Read more

$13.33+2.1% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#1 of 17 Industrial Distribution
Stop $12.57Target $13.60(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$16.00+20.0%2 analysts
Range unavailable (2 analysts)

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.33: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (2.1% upside)
Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$2.4B
EV/EBITDA16.9
Profit Mgn-3.2%
ROE-5.2%
Rev Growth68.0%
Beta0.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.14bullish
IV80%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerenergy industry customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'The concentration of our customers in the energy industry may impact our overall exposure to credit risk as customers may be similarly affected by prolonged changes in economic and industry conditions'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-27Item 5.02LOW
    Board member Rodney Eads notified DNOW on February 25, 2026 of his intention not to stand for reelection at the 2026 annual meeting. No disagreement cited. No successor named; seat expires at end of term.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Unprofitable operations — net margin -3.2%. Quality floor flags this regardless of sector context.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
0.3
Operating Margin
0.5
Roa
1.8
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
8.0
Piotroski F
8.9
Cash-burning: FCF -25% of revenueNo competitive moatStrong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9Quality concerns

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
52w Position
5.2
Gap
6.0
GatesA.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
75 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $11.51Resistance $13.40

Price Targets

$13
$14
A.Upside+2.0%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.1% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0)
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-06 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DNOW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.33: Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality; Below long-term trend. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Prior stop was $12.57. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DNOW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $13.60 (+2.1% upside). Prior stop was $12.57. Stop-loss: $12.57.

What are the risks of investing in DNOW?

Target reached (2.1% upside); Quality below floor (2.7 < 4.0).

Is DNOW overvalued or undervalued?

DNOW Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DNOW?

9 analysts cover DNOW with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $16.

What does DNOW Inc. do?DNOW Inc. distributes pipe, valves, fittings, pumps, and fabricated process and production equipment to energy and...

DNOW Inc. distributes pipe, valves, fittings, pumps, and fabricated process and production equipment to energy and industrial markets from approximately 300 locations with ~5,300 employees; it acquired MRC Global in November 2025. Revenue comes from sales to upstream, midstream, downstream, gas utility, and industrial customers across the U.S., Canada, and internationally.

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