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W.W. Grainger, Inc. (GWW) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Industrial Distribution

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1244.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.2% away).

The Grainger Edge Grainger's strategic framework, the Grainger Edge®, uniquely defines the Company by asserting why it exists, how it serves customers and how team members work together to achieve its objectives. Grainger's purpose is We Keep The World Working®, which in turn... Read more

$1244.45+1.1% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#5 of 17 Industrial Distribution
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield1.96%
IncomeYield0.74%(5y avg 1.01%)Payout24.31%sustainable
Stop $1180.78Target $1259.65(resistance)A.R:R -1.3:1
Analyst target$1261.50+1.4%14 analysts
$1259.65our TP
$1244.45price
$1261.50mean
$930
$1365

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1244.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — W.W. Grainger, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.4 in RISK_OFF)
High-quality business
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.2% away)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)33.4
P/E (Fwd)24.7
Mkt Cap$58.8B
EV/EBITDA19.9
Profit Mgn9.7%
ROE46.1%
Rev Growth10.1%
Beta1.04
Dividend0.74%
Rating analysts24

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C1.02bearish
IV28%low
Max Pain$920-26.1% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -1.3=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.0>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 75d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
69 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $1132.47Resistance $1285.36

Price Targets

$1181
$1260
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R-1.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (75d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is GWW stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1244.45 — A.R:R is negative (-1.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.2% away). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $1180.78. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the GWW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1259.65 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $1180.78. Stop-loss: $1180.78.

What are the risks of investing in GWW?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.2% away); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is GWW overvalued or undervalued?

W.W. Grainger, Inc. trades at a P/E of 33.4 (forward 24.7). TrendMatrix value score: 4.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about GWW?

24 analysts cover GWW with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $1262.

What does W.W. Grainger, Inc. do?The Grainger Edge Grainger's strategic framework, the Grainger Edge®, uniquely defines the Company by asserting why it...

The Grainger Edge Grainger's strategic framework, the Grainger Edge®, uniquely defines the Company by asserting why it exists, how it serves customers and how team members work together to achieve its objectives. Grainger's purpose is We Keep The World Working®, which in turn allows customers to focus on the core of their businesses and do what they do best.

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