Palantir Technologies is an elite software business with a Rule of 40 score of 118, 85% revenue growth, a perfect 4-for-4 earnings beat streak, and superior peer-group quality ranking — but the stock trades at a forward P/E of 64.8x with negative price momentum and a confirmed technical downtrend that must resolve before the fundamental case can be expressed.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Growth Trajectory→Stable
- Elite Software Quality→Stable
- Perfect Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $129.00: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (74.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: government segment (54.0%).
Palantir Technologies builds enterprise software platforms — Gotham for defense and intelligence, Foundry for commercial data operations, Apollo for continuous delivery, and AIP for generative AI — serving 954 customers in 2025. The company generated $4.5 billion in revenue in... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $129.00: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (74.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: government segment (54.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 9/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 29d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About Palantir Technologies Inc.
About Palantir Technologies Inc.
Palantir Technologies generated $4.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with the government segment contributing 54% and the commercial segment 46%; 74% of total revenue came from U.S. customers and 26% from customers abroad. The company held 954 customers as of December 31, 2025, served by four core platforms: Gotham for defense and intelligence operations, Foundry for commercial data management and workflow development, Apollo for continuous software delivery across cloud and on-premises environments, and AIP for generative AI agent deployment. Palantir employed 4,429 full-time employees globally as of December 31, 2025.
Palantir earns revenue through multi-year software contracts — typically one to five years — with government and commercial institutions that expand platform usage over time. The top twenty customers averaged $93.9 million in trailing-twelve-month revenue as of December 31, 2025, up from $64.6 million a year earlier. Total remaining deal value stood at $11.2 billion as of December 31, 2025, split between $6.8 billion in commercial and $4.4 billion in government contracts. Customer acquisition relies on a direct sales force reinforced by AIP bootcamps — short programs that deliver working workflows on actual customer data within days — as well as cloud partnerships with major providers. Revenue is seasonally weighted toward the third and fourth quarters, influenced by U.S. government customers' September 30 fiscal year-end and commercial customers' December 31 budget cycles. The company competes primarily against customers' internal software development efforts, as well as large enterprise software companies, government contractors, and system integrators.
Show full overview
U.S. federal government contracts — representing a portion of the $4.4 billion in government remaining deal value — carry termination-for-convenience provisions, and by law the government may not exercise contract options more than one year in advance. The top three customers accounted for 16% of 2025 revenue, and the 10-K warns that losing or delaying one large government contract could adversely affect results for the affected quarter and future periods. The company's 74% U.S. revenue concentration also subjects the business to federal budget cycles, continuing-resolution risk, and export-control regulations that may restrict certain international deployments.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Palantir Technologies Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Palantir Technologies Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Why Palantir Stock Is Sinking Today - The Motley Fool — The Motley Fool negative
- NEWS Should Palantir Stock Be in Your Portfolio Before Q1 Earnings? - Zacks Investment Research — Zacks Investment Research neutral
- NEWS Palantir Technologies Stock (PLTR) Opinions on FAA AI Contract Competition - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS Palantir Has Become A Buy Ahead Of Earnings (Preview, Upgrade) (NASDAQ:PLTR) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Palantir Technologies Inc Stock (PLTR) Moved Down by 3.74% on Jun 24: Drivers Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
Generated 2026-07-06T08:21:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicUnited States74%10-K Item 1: 'In 2025, we earned 74% of our revenue from customers in the United States, and 26% from those abroad.'
- HIGHCustomergovernment segment54%10-K Item 1: '54% came from customers in the government segment, and 46% came from customers in the commercial segment'
- LOWCustomertop three customers16%10-K Item 1A: 'Our top three customers together accounted for 16% and 17% of our revenue for the years ended December 31, 2025 and 2024, respectively.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $129.00: Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (74.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: government segment (54.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 48. Prior stop was $120.25. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $164.81 (+27.5% upside). Prior stop was $120.25. Stop-loss: $120.25.
Concentration risk — Geographic: United States (74.0%); Concentration risk — Customer: government segment (54.0%); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.5): -1.5.
Palantir Technologies Inc. trades at a P/E of 145.3 (forward 61.7). TrendMatrix value score: 3.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
38 analysts cover PLTR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $183.
What does Palantir Technologies Inc. do?Palantir Technologies builds enterprise software platforms — Gotham for defense and intelligence, Foundry for...
Palantir Technologies builds enterprise software platforms — Gotham for defense and intelligence, Foundry for commercial data operations, Apollo for continuous delivery, and AIP for generative AI — serving 954 customers in 2025. The company generated $4.5 billion in revenue in 2025, with 54% from the government segment and 74% from U.S. customers.