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PHMPulteGroup, Inc.Sell4.7·$124.76+1.56%
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PulteGroup, Inc. (PHM) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Residential Construction

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $124.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).

PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."),... Read more

$124.76-0.5% A.UpsideScore 4.7/10#10 of 16 Residential Construction
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield6.34%
IncomeYield0.85%(5y avg 0.91%)Payout9.28%sustainable
Stop $117.94Target $124.14(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$137.50+10.2%14 analysts
$124.14our TP
$124.76price
$137.50mean
$100
$162

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $124.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 22, 202636d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Weak overall score: 4.7/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.9
P/E (Fwd)11.0
Mkt Cap$23.4B
EV/EBITDA8.2
Profit Mgn12.1%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth-12.4%
Beta1.22
Dividend0.85%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV48%normal
Max Pain$50-59.9% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -12.4% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -12%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.3
Support Resistance
1.0
52w Position
7.3

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
3.1
Value Rank
4.4
Quality Rank
7.5
Best-in-class margins
GatesA.R:R -0.3=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.1>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $108.26Resistance $126.67

Price Targets

$118
$124
A.Upside-0.5%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.1% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-22 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PHM stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $124.76 — A.R:R is negative (-0.3) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $117.94. Score 4.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PHM stock price target?

Take-profit target: $124.14 (-0.5% upside). Prior stop was $117.94. Stop-loss: $117.94.

What are the risks of investing in PHM?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Weak overall score: 4.7/10.

Is PHM overvalued or undervalued?

PulteGroup, Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.9 (forward 11.0). TrendMatrix value score: 7.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PHM?

23 analysts cover PHM with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $138.

What does PulteGroup, Inc. do?PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder,...

PulteGroup, Inc. is a Michigan corporation organized in 1956, though we date our founding to 1950, when our founder, Bill Pulte, built our first home. Over our history, we have delivered over 875,000 homes. We are one of the largest homebuilders in the United States ("U.S."), and our common shares are included in the S&P 500 Index and trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol "PHM".

Related stocks: CVCO (Cavco Industries, Inc.) · IBP (Installed Building Products, In) · MHO (M/I Homes, Inc.) · TOL (Toll Brothers, Inc.) · SKY (Champion Homes, Inc.)
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