Value
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.3 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.5 |
| PEG | 5.3 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.5x
- ▸PEG: 1.41
PHM · Why this verdict
Why PulteGroup (PHM) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.8/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PulteGroup trades at an attractive forward P/E of 11.0x with 3 of 4 recent earnings beats, but is trapped in a death cross technical pattern with revenue declining 12% and a weak overall score of 4.6, making new entry unattractive at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 11.0x and PEG ratio of 1.11, PulteGroup is attractively priced given its sector, and the value score of 7.3 suggests significant margin of safety relative to intrinsic value. Valuation breakdown | Price re-rates toward fair value as the technical picture improves, with potential upside of more than 15% from current levels as housing volumes recover. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterHomebuilder valuations are typically compressed during downturns; the current low P/E may reflect forward earnings risk rather than undervaluation if the revenue decline accelerates. | ||
PulteGroup's revenue is declining at -12% annually with both the revenue and earnings growth scores at 0.0 out of 10, indicating that top-line contraction is a primary near-term risk for the homebuilder. Growth breakdown | Revenue stabilizes and returns to flat or positive growth within 2 quarters as housing market conditions improve. | →Stable |
| CounterHomebuilder revenues are highly cyclical; declines during rising rate environments often reverse sharply when mortgage rates stabilize or decline, and the analyst community rates PulteGroup 7.2 out of 10. | ||
PulteGroup has triggered a death cross hard block — a confirmed crossover of the 50-day below the 200-day moving average — which has historically preceded prolonged weakness in cyclical stocks and prevents new position entry. Warnings | Death cross resolves with price rising above the 200-day moving average and momentum score exceeding 5.5 within 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD is improving with RSI at 62, suggesting buying pressure is building even while the longer-term moving average pattern remains bearish — this divergence can precede a recovery. | ||
PulteGroup beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with the most recent miss being only -1.0%, and the quarterly EPS beats ranged from 2.5% to 3.4% in the most recent consecutive beats. Earnings | Next earnings report in 36 days shows a positive surprise of at least 2%, continuing the pattern of beating modest consensus expectations. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss came most recently in April 2026, breaking the prior streak and suggesting the business may be at an inflection point where beats become harder to sustain. | ||
At a forward P/E of 11.0x and PEG ratio of 1.11, PulteGroup is attractively priced given its sector, and the value score of 7.3 suggests significant margin of safety relative to intrinsic value.
↓DeterioratingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price re-rates toward fair value as the technical picture improves, with potential upside of more than 15% from current levels as housing volumes recover.
CounterHomebuilder valuations are typically compressed during downturns; the current low P/E may reflect forward earnings risk rather than undervaluation if the revenue decline accelerates.
PulteGroup's revenue is declining at -12% annually with both the revenue and earnings growth scores at 0.0 out of 10, indicating that top-line contraction is a primary near-term risk for the homebuilder.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue stabilizes and returns to flat or positive growth within 2 quarters as housing market conditions improve.
CounterHomebuilder revenues are highly cyclical; declines during rising rate environments often reverse sharply when mortgage rates stabilize or decline, and the analyst community rates PulteGroup 7.2 out of 10.
PulteGroup has triggered a death cross hard block — a confirmed crossover of the 50-day below the 200-day moving average — which has historically preceded prolonged weakness in cyclical stocks and prevents new position entry.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- Death cross resolves with price rising above the 200-day moving average and momentum score exceeding 5.5 within 6 months.
CounterMACD is improving with RSI at 62, suggesting buying pressure is building even while the longer-term moving average pattern remains bearish — this divergence can precede a recovery.
PulteGroup beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with the most recent miss being only -1.0%, and the quarterly EPS beats ranged from 2.5% to 3.4% in the most recent consecutive beats.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Next earnings report in 36 days shows a positive surprise of at least 2%, continuing the pattern of beating modest consensus expectations.
CounterThe one miss came most recently in April 2026, breaking the prior streak and suggesting the business may be at an inflection point where beats become harder to sustain.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.6 |
| ROA | 5.7 |
| Gross margin | 1.1 |
| Op margin | 6.4 |
| Net margin | 5.6 |
| Current ratio | 6.0 |
| FCF quality | 3.8 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 47% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.1/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.1 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -10%
Momentum
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.2 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.5 |
| Volume | 5.8 |
- ▸Overbought (RSI 76)
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat/negative + RSI 76 (late-cycle distribution risk)
Sentiment
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.3 |
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 4.6 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 1.6 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
3.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.6 |
| 52w position | 8.9 |
| gap | 4.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.2 |
| days to cover | 6.3 |
| volatility | 3.4 |
| put call | 8.1 |
| implied vol | 4.5 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
| news risk | 5.5 |
- ▸Above max pain $70
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 6.8 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.5>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=7.5>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.82
Upside
-12.4%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 76
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 2.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.8=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.82 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.5, Value at 6.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 0.1, Technical at 3.4, and Quality at 4.7. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Decline Growth Concern
Trip ifRevenue declines more than 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a housing downturn deeper than currently priced.
- P2Death Cross Hard Block
Trip ifPrice drops below $110 or momentum score falls below 4.0, indicating the death cross weakness is intensifying rather than recovering.
- P3Attractive Valuation Floor
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 8x on analyst downward revisions, indicating the market is pricing in sustained earnings decline.
- P4Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 5% in the next 2 consecutive quarterly reports, breaking the beat pattern.