Value
7.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.4 |
| P/S | 9.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.0 |
| PEG | 6.2 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 12.0x
- ▸PEG: 1.21
- ▸Attractively valued
PHM · Why this verdict
Why PulteGroup (PHM) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
VerdictHOLD
Overall score4.6/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
At a forward P/E of 11.0x and PEG ratio of 1.11, PulteGroup is attractively priced given its sector, and the value score of 7.3 suggests significant margin of safety relative to intrinsic value. Valuation breakdown | Price re-rates toward fair value as the technical picture improves, with potential upside of more than 15% from current levels as housing volumes recover. | →Stable |
| CounterHomebuilder valuations are typically compressed during downturns; the current low P/E may reflect forward earnings risk rather than undervaluation if the revenue decline accelerates. | ||
PulteGroup's revenue is declining at -12% annually with both the revenue and earnings growth scores at 0.0 out of 10, indicating that top-line contraction is a primary near-term risk for the homebuilder. Growth breakdown | Revenue stabilizes and returns to flat or positive growth within 2 quarters as housing market conditions improve. | →Stable |
| CounterHomebuilder revenues are highly cyclical; declines during rising rate environments often reverse sharply when mortgage rates stabilize or decline, and the analyst community rates PulteGroup 7.2 out of 10. | ||
PulteGroup has triggered a death cross hard block — a confirmed crossover of the 50-day below the 200-day moving average — which has historically preceded prolonged weakness in cyclical stocks and prevents new position entry. Warnings | Death cross resolves with price rising above the 200-day moving average and momentum score exceeding 5.5 within 6 months. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD is improving with RSI at 62, suggesting buying pressure is building even while the longer-term moving average pattern remains bearish — this divergence can precede a recovery. | ||
PulteGroup beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with the most recent miss being only -1.0%, and the quarterly EPS beats ranged from 2.5% to 3.4% in the most recent consecutive beats. Earnings | Next earnings report in 36 days shows a positive surprise of at least 2%, continuing the pattern of beating modest consensus expectations. | →Stable |
| CounterThe one miss came most recently in April 2026, breaking the prior streak and suggesting the business may be at an inflection point where beats become harder to sustain. | ||
At a forward P/E of 11.0x and PEG ratio of 1.11, PulteGroup is attractively priced given its sector, and the value score of 7.3 suggests significant margin of safety relative to intrinsic value.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price re-rates toward fair value as the technical picture improves, with potential upside of more than 15% from current levels as housing volumes recover.
CounterHomebuilder valuations are typically compressed during downturns; the current low P/E may reflect forward earnings risk rather than undervaluation if the revenue decline accelerates.
PulteGroup's revenue is declining at -12% annually with both the revenue and earnings growth scores at 0.0 out of 10, indicating that top-line contraction is a primary near-term risk for the homebuilder.
→StableGrowth breakdown
- Expectation
- Revenue stabilizes and returns to flat or positive growth within 2 quarters as housing market conditions improve.
CounterHomebuilder revenues are highly cyclical; declines during rising rate environments often reverse sharply when mortgage rates stabilize or decline, and the analyst community rates PulteGroup 7.2 out of 10.
PulteGroup has triggered a death cross hard block — a confirmed crossover of the 50-day below the 200-day moving average — which has historically preceded prolonged weakness in cyclical stocks and prevents new position entry.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- Death cross resolves with price rising above the 200-day moving average and momentum score exceeding 5.5 within 6 months.
CounterMACD is improving with RSI at 62, suggesting buying pressure is building even while the longer-term moving average pattern remains bearish — this divergence can precede a recovery.
PulteGroup beat earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with the most recent miss being only -1.0%, and the quarterly EPS beats ranged from 2.5% to 3.4% in the most recent consecutive beats.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Next earnings report in 36 days shows a positive surprise of at least 2%, continuing the pattern of beating modest consensus expectations.
CounterThe one miss came most recently in April 2026, breaking the prior streak and suggesting the business may be at an inflection point where beats become harder to sustain.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
PulteGroup trades at an attractive forward P/E of 11.0x with 3 of 4 recent earnings beats, but is trapped in a death cross technical pattern with revenue declining 12% and a weak overall score of 4.6, making new entry unattractive at current levels.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 5.4 |
| ROA | 6.6 |
| Gross margin | 1.2 |
| Op margin | 5.3 |
| Net margin | 6.1 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 5.5 |
| Moat | 5.1 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Earnings quality warning: 73% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
0.0/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 0.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -12%
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 1.1 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.9 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 5.8 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $1,286,104 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.9 |
| quality rank | 7.6 |
| growth rank | 2.6 |
Technical
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.7 |
| support resistance | 3.6 |
| 52w position | 8.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 4.7 |
| volatility | 3.8 |
| put call | 1.9 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| beta | 6.3 |
| debt equity | 9.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.72
Catalyst
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 78.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELL|L3:NEWS_MOD=+2Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.80
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
-0.73
Upside
-8.6%
Downside
11.7%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 17d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.6 below the 5.4 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 7.1) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-0.7=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -0.73 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 7.1, Sentiment at 6.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 5.5; the weakest are Growth at 0.0, Peer rank at 3.8, and Insider at 5.0. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.73 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Revenue Decline Growth Concern
Trip ifRevenue declines more than 15% year-over-year for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling a housing downturn deeper than currently priced.
- P2Death Cross Hard Block
Trip ifPrice drops below $110 or momentum score falls below 4.0, indicating the death cross weakness is intensifying rather than recovering.
- P3Attractive Valuation Floor
Trip ifForward P/E contracts below 8x on analyst downward revisions, indicating the market is pricing in sustained earnings decline.
- P4Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 5% in the next 2 consecutive quarterly reports, breaking the beat pattern.