Progressive Corporation combines an exceptional ROE of 38% and strong free cash flow conversion of 134% with attractive valuation, but near-term upside is constrained by a confirmed price downtrend and the stock trading below its 200-day moving average.
Thesis pillars
- Personal Lines Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Exceptional Roe Quality→Stable
- Downtrend Momentum Weakness↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Wait for pullback to $208.97. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $213.83. Engine's entry $208.97 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Progressive writes personal auto (ranked #2 in U.S. market share by 2024 premiums), commercial auto (ranked #1 since 2015), and residential property insurance in all U.S. states, with Personal Lines generating 87% of net premiums written in 2025. Premiums flow through direct... Read more
Wait for pullback to $208.97. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $213.83. Engine's entry $208.97 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, news boost analyst 0.60, news boost analyst cluster(6), earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
About Progressive Corporation (The)
About Progressive Corporation (The)
Progressive holds the #2 position in U.S. private passenger auto insurance by 2024 market share and has ranked first in U.S. commercial auto since 2015, writing across all 50 states. Personal Lines generated 87% of net premiums written in 2025; the direct channel captured 57% of personal vehicle volume while more than 40,000 independent agencies served the agency channel. The company competes against approximately 230 personal auto carriers and 340 commercial auto carriers nationwide.
Revenue flows primarily from personal auto premiums (95% of personal vehicle net premiums written in 2025), supplemented by special lines (motorcycles, RVs, watercraft), personal property, and commercial lines. Commercial Lines serves five core business market targets plus transportation network company (TNC) business—with Uber Technologies subsidiaries covered in 14 states—which represented 14% of Commercial Lines net premiums written in 2025. Progressive uses its Snapshot usage-based insurance program to refine rate-to-risk matching and purchases reinsurance for its property book: the occurrence XOL program through May 31, 2026 caps first-event Florida losses above a $75 million retention at $2.2 billion in coverage, versus $2.0 billion for first events outside Florida. The Destination Era bundling strategy pairs auto and property policies through nearly 6,000 Platinum agency partners and direct channels to improve retention among multi-product customers.
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Progressive's personal property segment carries a disclosed geographic concentration in states with significant hurricane and hailstorm exposure, a risk the 10-K notes has historically affected the property segment's results more than those of some peer insurers. If two qualifying catastrophic events occur within a single contract year, or if losses from one event exceed maximum reinsurance coverage limits, Progressive retains additional losses that could weigh on property profitability. A catastrophe bond providing $70 million of coverage matured January 8, 2026, reducing available first-event limits by that amount.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
From Progressive Corporation (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Progressive Corporation (The)
Latest news
- NEWS UBS Remains a Hold on Progressive (PGR) - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail neutral
- NEWS Should I sell Progressive (PGR) stock | Progressive delivers 1 percent EPS beat on steady insurance results - Net Debt/E — Cổng thông tin điện tử tỉnh Lào Cai positive
- NEWS Is Progressive (PGR) a buy ahead of its upcoming earnings announcement? - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS Why Progressive Insurance Fell Today - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Progressive Corp Stock (PGR) Moved Down by 9.25% on Jul 15: Drivers Behind the Movement - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductPersonal Lines87%10-K Item 1: 'The Personal Lines segment accounted for 87% of our total net premiums written in 2025'
- LOWCustomerUber Technologies (TNC)14%10-K Item 1: 'we provided commercial auto coverage in the TNC business to Uber Technologies subsidiaries in 14 states. TNC represented 14% of our Commercial Lines net premiums written in 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicstates with significant exposure to hurricanes and hailstorms10-K Item 1A: 'our property business has a concentration of policies in force in states with significant exposure to hurricanes and hailstorms'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02MEDIUMAndrew J. Quigg (current Chief Strategy and Finance Management Officer) elected as next CFO effective July 4, 2026, succeeding John P. Sauerland who retires July 3, 2026. Named successor; compensation details not yet finalized.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $208.97. Weak momentum; also recent C-suite change — blocks BUY_NOW at $213.83. Engine's entry $208.97 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $234.59 (+9.7%), stop $195.11 (−9.6%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $234.59 (-2.1% upside). Target $234.59 (+9.7%), stop $195.11 (−9.6%), A.R:R -0.3:1. Stop-loss: $195.11.
Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak growth.
Progressive Corporation (The) trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 13.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
31 analysts cover PGR with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $233.
What does Progressive Corporation (The) do?Progressive writes personal auto (ranked #2 in U.S. market share by 2024 premiums), commercial auto (ranked #1 since...
Progressive writes personal auto (ranked #2 in U.S. market share by 2024 premiums), commercial auto (ranked #1 since 2015), and residential property insurance in all U.S. states, with Personal Lines generating 87% of net premiums written in 2025. Premiums flow through direct (57% of personal vehicle volume) and independent agency channels.