Value
7.4/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.8 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.6 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.1x
- ▸Attractively valued
PGR · Why this verdict
Why Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score5.7/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Progressive Corporation combines an exceptional ROE of 38% and strong free cash flow conversion of 134% with attractive valuation, but near-term upside is constrained by a confirmed price downtrend and the stock trading below its 200-day moving average.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Personal lines represent 87% of Progressive's business, creating significant concentration risk where any regulatory, competitive, or catastrophe shock to that segment would materially impact the entire company. Bear case | Commercial lines revenue grows to represent at least 15% of total revenue within 12 months, reducing single-segment dependency. | →Stable |
| CounterMarket leadership in personal auto insurance provides scale advantages and pricing discipline that can sustain profitability even through industry cycles. | ||
Progressive generates a return on equity of 38% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow at 134% of net income, placing it among the highest-quality insurers in its peer group. Quality breakdown | ROE remains above 30% and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income over the next 4 quarters. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterInsurance ROE is highly sensitive to catastrophe losses; a single bad hurricane or wildfire season could compress ROE dramatically from current levels. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a moving average slope of -2.3% over 30 days, indicating a confirmed downtrend, and has triggered a death cross warning flag. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and momentum score exceeds 7.0 within 6 months. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterMACD is improving and RSI is at 56, suggesting the downtrend may be reversing rather than deepening — recovery setups can precede strong rebounds. | ||
Progressive has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an upcoming earnings report in 29 days, representing a near-term catalyst where a fourth beat would reinforce the quality narrative. Catalyst breakdown | Progressive beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarters, moving the catalyst score above 6.0. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterThe one quarterly miss was a significant 15.8% shortfall, suggesting earnings can be lumpy and the streak may reflect favorable claims experience rather than structural improvement. | ||
Personal lines represent 87% of Progressive's business, creating significant concentration risk where any regulatory, competitive, or catastrophe shock to that segment would materially impact the entire company.
→StableBear case
- Expectation
- Commercial lines revenue grows to represent at least 15% of total revenue within 12 months, reducing single-segment dependency.
CounterMarket leadership in personal auto insurance provides scale advantages and pricing discipline that can sustain profitability even through industry cycles.
Progressive generates a return on equity of 38% with a Piotroski F-Score of 7 out of 9 and free cash flow at 134% of net income, placing it among the highest-quality insurers in its peer group.
↓DeterioratingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE remains above 30% and free cash flow conversion stays above 100% of net income over the next 4 quarters.
CounterInsurance ROE is highly sensitive to catastrophe losses; a single bad hurricane or wildfire season could compress ROE dramatically from current levels.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with a moving average slope of -2.3% over 30 days, indicating a confirmed downtrend, and has triggered a death cross warning flag.
↓DeterioratingMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and momentum score exceeds 7.0 within 6 months.
CounterMACD is improving and RSI is at 56, suggesting the downtrend may be reversing rather than deepening — recovery setups can precede strong rebounds.
Progressive has beaten earnings in 3 of the last 4 quarters with an upcoming earnings report in 29 days, representing a near-term catalyst where a fourth beat would reinforce the quality narrative.
↓DeterioratingCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- Progressive beats earnings estimates in the next 2 consecutive quarters, moving the catalyst score above 6.0.
CounterThe one quarterly miss was a significant 15.8% shortfall, suggesting earnings can be lumpy and the streak may reflect favorable claims experience rather than structural improvement.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 7.3 |
| Net margin | 6.4 |
| Current ratio | 1.1 |
| Moat | 6.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 35%
Growth
3.6/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.3 |
| EPS growth | 3.0 |
Momentum
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.0 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 6.8 |
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $3,165,829 (0.003% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
5.7/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.7 |
| quality rank | 7.0 |
| growth rank | 4.9 |
Technical
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 8.8 |
| support resistance | 9.2 |
| 52w position | 6.4 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.3 |
| days to cover | 8.8 |
| volatility | 3.6 |
| put call | 5.3 |
| implied vol | 6.8 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $180
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
5.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 5.6 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.9 |
| dividend safety | 7.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Dividend: 6.7%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (4)
- INSIDER:OK
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:85d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.6<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
0.19
Upside
+1.4%
Downside
7.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilitySpeculative — Binary industry: Insurance - Property & Casualty
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Technical at 7.6; weakest: Momentum at 3.6. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Technical at 7.6, Value at 7.4, and Insider at 7.3; the weakest are Momentum at 3.6, Growth at 3.6, and Catalyst at 5.2. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Exceptional Roe Quality
Trip ifROE falls below 25% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating profitability compression beyond normal cyclical variation.
- P2Downtrend Momentum Weakness
Trip ifPrice drops below $190 or the moving average slope declines more than 4% over 30 days, confirming accelerating downtrend.
- P3Personal Lines Concentration Risk
Trip ifPersonal lines combined ratio rises above 100% for 2 consecutive quarters, indicating unprofitable underwriting in the dominant segment.
- P4Earnings Beat Catalyst
Trip ifProgressive misses earnings estimates by more than 10% in the next quarterly report, breaking the recent beat pattern.