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Markel Group Inc. (MKL) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1759.29 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: concentrated equity securities portfolio (70.0%).

Markel Group is a holding company anchored by Markel Insurance, which provides specialty P&C insurance, plus Markel Ventures owning diverse industrial and consumer businesses. It generated $15.5B in operating revenues in 2025 with $18.6B in shareholders' equity, compounding... Read more

$1759.29+1.1% A.UpsideScore 4.2/10#29 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
Stop $1667.83Target $1774.28(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.2:1
Analyst target$2039.40+15.9%5 analysts
$1774.28our TP
$1759.29price
$2039.40mean
$2160

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1759.29 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: concentrated equity securities portfolio (70.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 90d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: concentrated equity securities portfolio (70.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Weak overall score: 4.2/10

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.7
P/E (Fwd)13.8
Mkt Cap$22.0B
EV/EBITDA7.1
Profit Mgn11.1%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth-16.9%
Beta0.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.32bearish
IV31%normal
Max Pain$1540-12.5% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductconcentrated equity securities portfolio70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Equity securities were 70% of our shareholders' equity at December 31, 2025... Our portfolio of equity securities is concentrated in particular issuers and industries'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02MEDIUM
    EVP/COO Michael R. Heaton departing March 23, 2026 per mutual agreement, with severance. Simon Wilson appointed EVP/CEO Markel Insurance; Andrew Crowley appointed EVP/President Markel Ventures. COO role not replaced directly.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -16.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -17%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Volume
2.7
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 26, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Quality Rank
3.8
Value Rank
3.9
GatesMomentum 1.6<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 90d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1719.41Resistance $2011.54

Price Targets

$1668
$1774
A.Upside+0.9%
A.R:R0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.1% upside)
! Momentum score 1.6/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (90d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MKL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1759.29 — A.R:R 0.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Product: concentrated equity securities portfolio (70.0%). Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $1667.83. Score 4.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MKL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1774.28 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $1667.83. Stop-loss: $1667.83.

What are the risks of investing in MKL?

Concentration risk — Product: concentrated equity securities portfolio (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Weak overall score: 4.2/10.

Is MKL overvalued or undervalued?

Markel Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.7 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MKL?

13 analysts cover MKL with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $2039.

What does Markel Group Inc. do?Markel Group is a holding company anchored by Markel Insurance, which provides specialty P&C insurance, plus Markel...

Markel Group is a holding company anchored by Markel Insurance, which provides specialty P&C insurance, plus Markel Ventures owning diverse industrial and consumer businesses. It generated $15.5B in operating revenues in 2025 with $18.6B in shareholders' equity, compounding capital through insurance float invested heavily in equities and by acquiring operating businesses.

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