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Markel Group Inc. (MKL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 3/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1860.47 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: concentrated equity portfolio (70.0%).

Markel Group is a holding company whose cornerstone, Markel Insurance, writes specialty insurance globally with $12.5B gross premium volume in 2025 and a 95% combined ratio. The company also owns diversified industrial, financial, and consumer businesses and maintains a large... Read more

$1860.47+4.2% A.UpsideScore 4.3/10#28 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-4.39%
Stop $1785.67Target $1938.89(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$2005.40+7.8%5 analysts
$1938.89our TP
$1860.47price
$2005.40mean
$2107

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1860.47 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: concentrated equity portfolio (70.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val6.6Qual4.5Grw0.0Mom5.1Sent5.0Ins5.0Peer1.8Tech5.2Risk6.94.3OVERALL

Recent Developments — Markel Group Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Risks
Concentration risk — Counterparty: concentrated equity portfolio (70.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.5
P/E (Fwd)15.3
Mkt Cap$23.3B
EV/EBITDA7.5
Profit Mgn11.1%
ROE10.0%
Rev Growth-16.9%
Beta0.67
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.04bearish
IV23%low
Max Pain$1560-16.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHcounterpartyconcentrated equity portfolio70%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Equity securities were 70% of our shareholders' equity at December 31, 2025...concentrated in particular issuers and industries'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-26Item 5.02MEDIUM
    COO Michael Heaton departing March 23, 2026 by mutual agreement. Simon Wilson elevated to EVP/CEO Markel Insurance; Andrew Crowley to EVP/President Markel Ventures as successors. Heaton entitled to severance under existing employment agreement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -16.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -17%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
3.5
Quality Rank
3.8
GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
74 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $1719.41Resistance $1978.46

Price Targets

$1786
$1939
A.Upside+4.2%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MKL stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $1860.47 — A.R:R is negative (-0.8) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Counterparty: concentrated equity portfolio (70.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 74. Prior stop was $1785.67. Score 4.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MKL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $1938.89 (+4.2% upside). Prior stop was $1785.67. Stop-loss: $1785.67.

What are the risks of investing in MKL?

Concentration risk — Counterparty: concentrated equity portfolio (70.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Is MKL overvalued or undervalued?

Markel Group Inc. trades at a P/E of 13.5 (forward 15.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MKL?

14 analysts cover MKL with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $2005.

What does Markel Group Inc. do?Markel Group is a holding company whose cornerstone, Markel Insurance, writes specialty insurance globally with $12.5B...

Markel Group is a holding company whose cornerstone, Markel Insurance, writes specialty insurance globally with $12.5B gross premium volume in 2025 and a 95% combined ratio. The company also owns diversified industrial, financial, and consumer businesses and maintains a large equity securities portfolio equal to 70% of shareholders' equity, concentrated in particular issuers.

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