Progressive Corporation (The) (PGR) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Sell if holding. At $199.91, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%).
Progressive is the second-largest U.S. personal auto insurer and #1 commercial auto insurer (since 2015), writing personal vehicle, personal property, and commercial auto insurance in all 50 states. Personal Lines accounted for 87% of total net premiums written in 2025, with... Read more
Sell if holding. At $199.91, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 75d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductPersonal Lines87%10-K Item 1: 'The Personal Lines segment accounted for 87% of our total net premiums written in 2025, 85% in 2024, and 84% in 2023'
- LOWCustomerUber Technologies TNC business14%10-K Item 1: 'we provided commercial auto coverage in the TNC business to Uber Technologies subsidiaries in 14 states. TNC represented 14% of our Commercial Lines net premiums written in 2025'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-01-28Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO John P. Sauerland announced retirement effective July 3, 2026. Andrew J. Quigg (Chief Strategy Officer) expected to be appointed CFO upon Sauerland's retirement. Successor named; no disagreement cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $199.91, A.R:R 0.8:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 57. Prior stop was $189.91. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $207.13 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $189.91. Stop-loss: $189.91.
Concentration risk — Product: Personal Lines (87.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.8%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Progressive Corporation (The) trades at a P/E of 10.2 (forward 12.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
30 analysts cover PGR with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $230.
What does Progressive Corporation (The) do?Progressive is the second-largest U.S. personal auto insurer and #1 commercial auto insurer (since 2015), writing...
Progressive is the second-largest U.S. personal auto insurer and #1 commercial auto insurer (since 2015), writing personal vehicle, personal property, and commercial auto insurance in all 50 states. Personal Lines accounted for 87% of total net premiums written in 2025, with personal auto comprising 95% of personal vehicle premiums. Distribution is split between independent agents (43% of personal vehicle) and direct channels (57%).