Allstate is a high-quality property and casualty insurer with a 46% ROE and wide moat, but the price is above the analyst target so upside is limited until a pullback.
Thesis pillars
- Cheap Earnings Multiple→Stable
- High Return Quality→Stable
- Price Above Analyst Target→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 20, 2026
Allstate Corporation (The) (ALL) Stock Analysis
Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $261.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Allstate ranks as the third-largest personal property and casualty insurer in the United States with 21 million policies in force, 53,000 employees, and an $83.24 billion investment portfolio. The Allstate Protection segment — 93.9% of 2025 consolidated insurance premiums —... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $261.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $261.50 vs the analyst target $242.35: -7.3% upside; No upside left. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Allstate Corporation (The)
About Allstate Corporation (The)
The Allstate Protection segment generated 93.9% of Allstate Corporation's 2025 consolidated insurance premiums and contract charges, placing the company third among personal property and casualty insurers in the United States by 2024 statutory direct premiums per A.M. Best. Allstate holds an $83.24 billion investment portfolio, maintains 21 million policies in force, employs 53,000 people, and operates in all 50 states, D.C., and Canada. State insurance departments in each jurisdiction serve as primary regulators for the company's pricing and product approvals.
Allstate Protection sells private passenger auto, homeowners, and other personal lines products through over 27,400 exclusive agents, approximately 58,700 independent agent locations, and roughly 2,200 direct sales representatives in contact centers and online. Pricing is built on a proprietary underwriting database using risk factors such as vehicle characteristics, driver history, geographic territory, and telematics data from programs including Drivewise and Milewise. The Protection Services segment — 5.0% of 2025 total revenue but 81.6% of policies in force — generates fees through consumer protection plans, roadside assistance, automotive dealer products, identity protection, and the Arity telematics platform. Catastrophe reinsurance covers hurricane, earthquake, and wildfire perils; the modeled 1-in-100 probable maximum loss for these perils stood at approximately $3.1 billion net of reinsurance at December 31, 2025.
Show full overview
State insurance regulators hold broad authority over Allstate's pricing, products, and underwriting practices. The 10-K notes that regulatory approval of rate changes — especially during inflationary periods — may restrict adjustments required to reach targeted profitability, and certain states impose profit caps that could trigger retroactive premium refunds. Required participation in state assigned-risk pools and joint underwriting associations may force the company to accept below-target returns in those markets. Additionally, state law limits dividend payments from insurance subsidiaries based on statutory income and surplus thresholds, constraining holding company liquidity.
See also: Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty
From Allstate Corporation (The)'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — Allstate Corporation (The)
Latest news
- NEWS Allstate (ALL) Stock Still Looks Cheap As Its 126% Run Continues - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS BofA Securities Maintains Allstate(ALL.US) With Buy Rating - Moomoo — Moomoo Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Allstate shares may move 5.1% on upcoming earnings report - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 28, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Allstate (ALL) Expected to Beat Earnings Estimates: What to Know Ahead of Q3 Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Allstate (ALL) Stock Sinks As Market Gains: What You Should Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 negative
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:29:27Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHProductAllstate Protection segment94%10-K Item 1: 'Our Allstate Protection segment accounted for 93.9% of Allstate's 2025 consolidated insurance premiums and contract charges'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
10 dimensions · all in-band
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $261.50, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $261.50 vs the analyst target $242.35: -7.3% upside; No upside left. Analyst target $242.35 reached (−7.3%), stop $243.77 (−7.3%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 6.8/10, high confidence.
Analyst target $242.35 reached (−7.3% from $261.50); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $242.35 reached (−7.3%), stop $243.77 (−7.3%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $243.77.
Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Allstate Corporation (The) trades at a P/E of 5.2 (forward 9.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Hold.
31 analysts rate ALL, with a consensus score of 3.5/5. 22 analysts publish price targets averaging $269.
What does Allstate Corporation (The) do?Allstate ranks as the third-largest personal property and casualty insurer in the United States with 21 million...
Allstate ranks as the third-largest personal property and casualty insurer in the United States with 21 million policies in force, 53,000 employees, and an $83.24 billion investment portfolio. The Allstate Protection segment — 93.9% of 2025 consolidated insurance premiums — sells auto and homeowners coverage through over 27,400 exclusive agents, 58,700 independent agents, and direct channels.