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Allstate Corporation (The) (ALL) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualty

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $224.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Allstate is the third-largest personal property-casualty insurer in the U.S., offering auto, homeowners, and other personal lines under the Allstate and National General brands, plus consumer protection plans and identity protection through Protection Services. Revenue is earned... Read more

$224.58+8.6% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#11 of 29 Insurance - Property & Casualty
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield21.83%
IncomeYield1.95%(5y avg 2.34%)Payout9.03%sustainable
Entry $205.44(200-day MA)Stop $194.58Target $223.07(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1Setup A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$241.50+7.5%22 analysts
$223.07our TP
$224.58price
$241.50mean
$176
$295

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $224.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $224.58 has reached target $223.07. No upside to wait for. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val7.4Qual6.4Grw3.2Mom8.7Sent6.3Ins3.9Peer5.0Tech3.8Risk7.65.8OVERALL

Recent Developments — Allstate Corporation (The)

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Risks
Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (-0.8% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.9
P/E (Fwd)8.4
Mkt Cap$56.9B
EV/EBITDA4.1
Profit Mgn17.8%
ROE45.2%
Rev Growth3.0%
Beta0.21
Dividend1.95%
Rating analysts29

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C5.08bearish
IV33%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHProductAllstate Protection segment94%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our Allstate Protection segment accounted for 93.9% of Allstate's 2025 consolidated insurance premiums and contract charges'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
1.7
52w Position
9.7
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 8.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
73 · Overbought
↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $209.50Resistance $227.62

Price Targets

$195
$205
$223
A.Upside-0.7%
A.R:R-0.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.2% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALL stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $224.58, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $224.58 has reached target $223.07. No upside to wait for. Target $223.07 (-0.7%), stop $194.58 (−15.4%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $223.07 (+8.6% upside). Target $223.07 (-0.7%), stop $194.58 (−15.4%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $194.58.

What are the risks of investing in ALL?

Concentration risk — Product: Allstate Protection segment (93.9%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (-0.8% away).

Is ALL overvalued or undervalued?

Allstate Corporation (The) trades at a P/E of 4.9 (forward 8.4). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about ALL?

29 analysts cover ALL with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $242.

What does Allstate Corporation (The) do?Allstate is the third-largest personal property-casualty insurer in the U.S., offering auto, homeowners, and other...

Allstate is the third-largest personal property-casualty insurer in the U.S., offering auto, homeowners, and other personal lines under the Allstate and National General brands, plus consumer protection plans and identity protection through Protection Services. Revenue is earned as premiums and fees across 21 million policies in force, with an $83.24 billion investment portfolio.

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