PENN Entertainment has missed earnings estimates in all 4 of the most recent quarters — including a catastrophic -12,444% miss — and scores below quality minimums at 2.2 out of 10, with high short interest of 17% and negative free cash flow despite positive price momentum.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Below Minimum↑Improving
- High Short Interest Justified↓Deteriorating
- Severe Earnings Miss Pattern↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
PENN Entertainment, Inc. (PENN) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.51: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality.
PENN Entertainment operates 42 gaming and racing properties across 19 U.S. states alongside an Interactive segment offering online sportsbook in 22 jurisdictions and iCasino in five markets. Revenue is generated from gaming operations, food and beverage, hotel stays, and digital... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.51: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
About PENN Entertainment, Inc.
About PENN Entertainment, Inc.
PENN Entertainment's 42 gaming and racing properties across 19 states produced regional revenue led by Ohio (13.4%), Louisiana (11.8%), Missouri (9.2%), and Pennsylvania (8.4%) in 2025, with Interactive operations active in 22 sportsbook jurisdictions and five iCasino markets as of December 31, 2025. Following the December 1, 2025 expiration of the ESPN BET trademark license, the company rebranded its U.S. sportsbook to theScore Bet, connecting it to the theScore media app's roughly 4 million monthly active users across North America.
PENN's retail operations generate revenue from slot machines, table games, food and beverage, and hotels across five reportable segments—Northeast, South, West, Midwest, and Interactive. The real estate underpinning most properties is leased under triple-net structures, the most significant of which are with Gaming and Leisure Properties (GLPI); rent payments under these leases reached $967.8 million in 2025. Capital expenditures totaled $408.4 million in 2025, primarily tied to the PENN Development Projects. The Interactive segment competes against numerous OSB and iCasino operators in a fast-evolving market; the 10-K also flags growing competition from prediction markets as a distinct threat to both retail and online gaming volumes. As a regional operator, PENN's patron base is predominantly local rather than destination visitors, making revenues particularly sensitive to day-to-day discretionary spending.
Show full overview
PENN's $2.9 billion in indebtedness—including $2.0 billion outstanding under the Amended Credit Facilities—sits alongside $967.8 million in annual lease payments under triple-net structures, limiting cash flow available for development projects or shareholder returns. The Amended Revolving Credit Facility's $406.1 million availability expires in 2027, creating a near-term refinancing hurdle. If local economic conditions deteriorate in Ohio or Louisiana—the two largest retail revenue geographies—debt service capacity may be strained without access to additional financing at acceptable terms.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos
From PENN Entertainment, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — PENN Entertainment, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on PENN Entertainment, Raises Price Target to $20 — benzinga Aug 12, 2026 positive
- NEWS Benchmark Maintains Buy on PENN Entertainment, Raises Price Target to $22 — benzinga Aug 7, 2026 positive
- NEWS Macquarie Maintains Outperform on PENN Entertainment, Raises Price Target to $25 — benzinga Aug 7, 2026 positive
- NEWS DraftKings Earnings Prediction Market Preview: Traders Bet Robins Won't Say 'Kalshi' — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 neutral
- NEWS PENN Entertainment Q2 Adj. EPS $0.44 Beats $0.43 Estimate, Sales $1.857B Miss $1.859B Estimate — benzinga Aug 6, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-08-15T13:12:18Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWGeographicOhio13%10-K Item 1A: 'we generated 13.4%, 11.8%, 9.2%, and 8.4% of our revenues from our retail properties within the states of Ohio, Louisiana, Missouri, and Pennsylvania respectively'
- LOWGeographicLouisiana12%10-K Item 1A: 'we generated 13.4%, 11.8%, 9.2%, and 8.4% of our revenues from our retail properties within the states of Ohio, Louisiana, Missouri, and Pennsylvania respectively'
- MEDIUMcounterpartyGLPI10-K Item 1: 'triple net master leases, the most significant of which are with Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (Nasdaq: GLPI)'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $18.51: Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.9/10 and A.R:R 2.2:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $18.11. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $21.86 (+16.3% upside). Prior stop was $18.11. Stop-loss: $18.11.
Quality below floor (2.4 < 4.0).
PENN Entertainment, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 15.7). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
27 analysts cover PENN with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $24.
What does PENN Entertainment, Inc. do?PENN Entertainment operates 42 gaming and racing properties across 19 U.S. states alongside an Interactive segment...
PENN Entertainment operates 42 gaming and racing properties across 19 U.S. states alongside an Interactive segment offering online sportsbook in 22 jurisdictions and iCasino in five markets. Revenue is generated from gaming operations, food and beverage, hotel stays, and digital fees; rent under triple-net leases totaled $967.8 million in 2025 against $2.9 billion in outstanding debt.