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PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc. CommHold7.2·$80.33-2.20%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Par Pacific Holdings offers deep value in oil refining with a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG of 0.40, though consecutive earnings misses and high short interest at 13% cap near-term conviction until momentum recovers.

Thesis pillars

  • Roe Peer AdvantageImproving
  • Deep Value Refining MultipleDeteriorating
  • Earnings Beat Mix ResolutionDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

HoldGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $80.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, processing 187.8 Mbpd in fiscal 2025 for the western United States market. The company also operates fuel retail outlets under Hele, nomnom, and 76... Read more

$80.33-9.8% A.UpsideScore 7.2/10#1 of 18 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.00%
Stop $74.70Target $85.29(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$83.29+3.7%7 analysts
$85.29our TP
$80.33price
$83.29mean
$65
$95

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $80.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 81d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Nov 3, 202681d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Strong overall score: 7.2/10
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)4.6
P/E (Fwd)6.2
Mkt Cap$4.1B
EV/EBITDA4.0
Profit Mgn9.9%
ROE53.5%
Rev Growth56.8%
Beta0.79
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.22bearish
IV64%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 ceiling hits

GatesA.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 81d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $64.98Resistance $87.03

Price Targets

$75
$85
A.Upside-9.8%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-9.8% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-03 (81d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PARR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $80.33, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $85.29 (+6.2%), stop $74.70 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PARR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $85.29 (-9.8% upside). Target $85.29 (+6.2%), stop $74.70 (−7.5%), A.R:R -0.7:1. Stop-loss: $74.70.

What are the risks of investing in PARR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is PARR overvalued or undervalued?

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm trades at a P/E of 4.6 (forward 6.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about PARR?

13 analysts cover PARR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $83.

What does Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm do?Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington,...

Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, processing 187.8 Mbpd in fiscal 2025 for the western United States market. The company also operates fuel retail outlets under Hele, nomnom, and 76 brands in Hawaii, Washington, and Idaho, and a multi-modal logistics network in the Pacific, Northwest, and Rocky Mountain regions.

Related stocks: DINO (HF Sinclair Corporation) · SUN (Sunoco LP) · CSAN (Cosan S.A.) · PBF (PBF Energy Inc.) · UGP (Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne)
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