Par Pacific Holdings offers deep value in oil refining with a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG of 0.40, though consecutive earnings misses and high short interest at 13% cap near-term conviction until momentum recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Roe Peer Advantage→Stable
- Deep Value Refining Multiple↓Deteriorating
- Earnings Beat Mix Resolution↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.93 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, processing 187.8 Mbpd in fiscal 2025 for the western United States market. The company also operates fuel retail outlets under Hele, nomnom, and 76... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.93 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 48, MACD bullish. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 60d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm
Latest news
- NEWS Par Petroleum (PARR) Is Up 1.50% in One Week: What You Should Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Par Pacific Holdings Jumps 5.3% Amid Sector-Wide Rally - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet positive
- NEWS Par Pacific Holdings stock hits all-time high at 82.37 USD - Investing.com — Investing.com positive
- NEWS OMERS ADMINISTRATION Corp Acquires 15,400 Shares of Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. $PARR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Renaissance Technologies LLC Cuts Stock Position in Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. $PARR - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-09-04T15:07:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security. Our sole compensation is subscription revenue.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $80.93 — A.R:R is negative (-0.7) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 48, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $75.44. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $93.28 (-11.0% upside). Prior stop was $75.44. Stop-loss: $75.44.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm trades at a P/E of 4.8 (forward 6.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover PARR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $83.
What does Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm do?Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington,...
Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, processing 187.8 Mbpd in fiscal 2025 for the western United States market. The company also operates fuel retail outlets under Hele, nomnom, and 76 brands in Hawaii, Washington, and Idaho, and a multi-modal logistics network in the Pacific, Northwest, and Rocky Mountain regions.