HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the DINO stock price target?

Take-profit $65.87 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $62.18.

Q: What are the risks of investing in DINO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Target reached (-13.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0); Target reached (-13.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Q: Is DINO overvalued or undervalued?

HF Sinclair Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.4 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about DINO?

23 analysts cover DINO with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $66.

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Earnings in 0 days (2026-05-01). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

$66.92-1.5% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#8 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Stop $62.18Target $65.87(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1

Analyst target$66.21-1.1%14 analysts

$65.87our TP

$66.92price

$66.21mean

$54

$75

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $66.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.60, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Recent Analyst detected in news

Risks

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers

Target reached (-13.8% upside)

Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)21.4

P/E (Fwd)11.7

Mkt Cap$11.9B

EV/EBITDA9.6

Profit Mgn2.2%

ROE6.3%

Rev Growth-0.6%

Beta0.69

Dividend3.03%

Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish

IV59%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

HIGHSuppliersingle-source suppliers
10-K Item 1A: 'there are a limited number of suppliers and, in some cases, we source from a single supplier'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-02-18Item 5.02MEDIUM
CEO Tim Go requested voluntary leave of absence Feb 17, 2026; Board elected Chairman Franklin Myers as acting CEO and President. No reason cited. CFO position also vacated; Vivek Garg named acting CFO Feb 24, 2026.
SEC filing →
2026-03-06Item 5.02LOW
Vivek Garg confirmed as acting CFO effective February 24, 2026, retaining VP/Chief Accounting Officer role. Compensation supplement approved.
SEC filing →
2026-03-31Item 5.02LOW
Compensation approved for acting CEO Franklin Myers: $9,000/month cash stipend plus monthly RSU grants of approximately $105,000 commencing April 2026. Routine compensatory arrangement for interim officer.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value6.715%1.00

Quality3.815%0.57

Growth2.315%0.34

Momentum6.610%0.66

Sentiment6.410%0.64

Insider Activity5.010%0.50

Peer Rank4.610%0.46

Technical Setup4.05%0.20

Risk Profile7.35%0.36

Catalyst7.75%0.39

Overall (Σ contributions)5.13

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Revenue shrinking — -0.6% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth

2.3

Declining revenue: -1%

Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Gross Margin

0.0

Operating Margin

0.0

Net Margin

1.1

Roe

2.1

Roa

2.3

Moat

5.0

Piotroski F

6.7

Current Ratio

6.8

Fcf Quality

10.0

Excellent cash conversion: 178% FCF/NINo competitive moat

GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 0d<=7dMomentum 6.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.60SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate

RSI

76 · Overbought

↑ 20D MA↑ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $55.43Resistance $67.21

Price Targets

$62

$66

A.Upside-1.6%

A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-13.8% upside)

! Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0)

! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 389.2), Negative free cash flow

Earnings

4/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-01 (0d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is DINO stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $66.92: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.1/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $62.18. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DINO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $65.87 (-1.5% upside). Prior stop was $62.18. Stop-loss: $62.18.

What are the risks of investing in DINO?

Concentration risk — Supplier: single-source suppliers; Target reached (-13.8% upside); Quality below floor (3.8 < 4.0).

Is DINO overvalued or undervalued?

HF Sinclair Corporation trades at a P/E of 21.4 (forward 11.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DINO?

23 analysts cover DINO with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $66.

What does HF Sinclair Corporation do?HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five...

HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The company produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, commodity and modified asphalt products, and others. It also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Washington, and Utah, as well as markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, the company supplies fuels to 1,700 branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 350 additional locations, as well as provision of other marketing activities. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum sector. Additionally, it offers hydrocarbon chemicals, including white oils, petrolatums, and waxes. The company also exports its products. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.