HF Sinclair is attractively valued at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 8.9 times with a price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio near 1.0 and a four-quarter consecutive earnings beat streak featuring extraordinary positive surprises, but price momentum has broken down materially—on-balance volume is distributing, the momentum reading sits well below the minimum acceptable threshold at 3.5 out of 10—and a sharp recent gap-down may signal either a reversal or the beginning of a larger move lower.
Thesis pillars
- Extraordinary Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Compelling Valuation↑Improving
- Broken Price Momentum→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 27, 2026· older than 90 days
HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Wait for pullback to $99.02. At $104.57 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $99.02 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 5.7%.
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The company produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable... Read more
Wait for pullback to $99.02. At $104.57 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $99.02 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 5.7%. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 25, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 4.2 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 0.5x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 104d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=energy 1/10). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — HF Sinclair Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) Shares Fall 7.8% -- What GF Score of 60 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Nov 5, 2026 negative
- NEWS HF Sinclair (DINO) Stock May Be Rich On Separation And Dividend News - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Nov 4, 2026 positive
- NEWS HF Sinclair (DINO) Stock Looks Above Fair Value On Its 296% Run - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS HF Sinclair Corp. stock underperforms Wednesday when compared to competitors - MarketWatch — MarketWatch Oct 28, 2026 negative
- NEWS Raymond James cuts HF Sinclair stock price target on valuation - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 28, 2026 negative
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:00Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-13Item 5.02MEDIUMCFO Atanas Atanasov terminated effective immediately May 13, 2026. Acting CFO Vivek Garg (VP, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller) had been serving since February 24, 2026. No disagreement with company practices cited.SEC filing →
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02MEDIUMCEO Timothy Go reached a Separation and Release Agreement effective May 11, 2026, and resigned from the Board. Acting CEO Franklin Myers (Board Chairperson) had been serving since February 17, 2026. Departure not due to any disagreement with company operations or practices.SEC filing →
- 2026-03-31Item 5.02LOWCompensation arrangements approved for Acting CEO Franklin Myers: $9,000 monthly cash stipend and approximately $105,000 monthly in RSU grants, commencing February 17, 2026, approved by the Compensation Committee.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $99.02. At $104.57 the A.R:R is 0.5:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $99.02 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risk: Thin upside margin: 5.7%. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 25, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 4.2 < 4.5 minimum; R/R 0.5x at spot < 1.5 minimum. Wait for improvement. Target $110.53 (+5.7%), stop $92.09 (−13.6%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $110.53 (+5.7% upside). Target $110.53 (+5.7%), stop $92.09 (−13.6%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $92.09.
Thin upside margin: 5.7%.
HF Sinclair Corporation trades at a P/E of 5.3 (forward 5.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
24 analysts rate DINO, with a consensus score of 3.6/5. 16 analysts publish price targets averaging $123.
What does HF Sinclair Corporation do?HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five...
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The company produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, commodity and modified asphalt products, and others. It also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Washington, and Utah, as well as markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, the company supplies fuels to 1,700 branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 350 additional locations, as well as provision of other marketing activities. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum sector. Additionally, it offers hydrocarbon chemicals, including white oils, petrolatums, and waxes. The company also exports its products. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.