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HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) Stock Analysis

HoldModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $71.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.9% away).

HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The company produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable... Read more

$71.75+1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#5 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield10.66%
IncomeYield2.78%(5y avg 3.36%)Payout30.03%sustainable
Stop $66.79Target $72.77(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$73.29+2.1%14 analysts
$72.77our TP
$71.75price
$73.29mean
$54
$85

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $71.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.9% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — HF Sinclair Corporation

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.9% away)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.8
P/E (Fwd)11.2
Mkt Cap$12.9B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn4.5%
ROE13.0%
Rev Growth11.8%
Beta0.71
Dividend2.78%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.82neutral
IV48%normal

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-02-18Item 5.02HIGH
    CEO Tim Go requested voluntary leave of absence Feb 17, 2026. Board elected Chairperson Franklin Myers as Acting CEO/President. No permanent CEO named.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-06Item 5.02LOW
    Vivek Garg appointed Acting CFO effective Feb 24, 2026, in addition to his existing role as VP, Chief Accounting Officer and Controller. No successor named; temporary appointment.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-31Item 5.02LOW
    Compensation arrangements for Acting CEO Franklin Myers approved: $9,000/month cash stipend and ~$105,000 monthly RSU grants while serving as Acting CEO.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 5.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $58.39Resistance $74.26

Price Targets

$67
$73
A.Upside+1.4%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.2% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DINO stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $71.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.9% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $72.77 (+1.4%), stop $66.79 (−7.4%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DINO stock price target?

Take-profit target: $72.77 (+1.3% upside). Target $72.77 (+1.4%), stop $66.79 (−7.4%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $66.79.

What are the risks of investing in DINO?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.9% away); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

Is DINO overvalued or undervalued?

HF Sinclair Corporation trades at a P/E of 10.8 (forward 11.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about DINO?

22 analysts cover DINO with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $73.

What does HF Sinclair Corporation do?HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five...

HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The company produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, commodity and modified asphalt products, and others. It also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Washington, and Utah, as well as markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, the company supplies fuels to 1,700 branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 350 additional locations, as well as provision of other marketing activities. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum sector. Additionally, it offers hydrocarbon chemicals, including white oils, petrolatums, and waxes. The company also exports its products. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

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