CVR Energy's revenue grew approximately 20% year-over-year and the stock sits roughly 24% below a near-term technical target with a favorable reward-to-risk profile at roughly 4.7 to 1. However, business quality is at 2.1 out of 10 — well below the 4.0 minimum required for a constructive position — free cash flow is slightly negative, short interest is elevated at 16%, and the options market is heavily skewed toward puts, making the quality deficiency the decisive barrier to entry.
Thesis pillars
- Quality Well Below Threshold↓Deteriorating
- Heavy Short Options Positioning↓Deteriorating
- Revenue Growth Tailwind→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 18, 2026· older than 90 days
CVR Energy Inc. (CVI) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $43.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4).
CVR Energy holds two petroleum refineries in the southern PADD II mid-continent region — 132,000 bpd at Coffeyville, Kansas and 74,500 bpd at Wynnewood, Oklahoma — plus nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing via its majority stake in CVR Partners. Revenue comes from petroleum product... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $43.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 22, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 103d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
About CVR Energy Inc.
About CVR Energy Inc.
CVR Energy processed 98,757 bpd at its Coffeyville, Kansas refinery and 68,186 bpd at its Wynnewood, Oklahoma refinery in 2025, against nameplate capacities of 132,000 bpd and 74,500 bpd, respectively. The company controls CVR Partners, LP, a publicly traded nitrogen fertilizer producer with facilities in Coffeyville and East Dubuque, Illinois. In December 2025, CVR Energy reverted its Wynnewood renewable diesel unit to conventional hydrocarbon service after unfavorable renewable economics.
The Petroleum Segment produces gasoline, distillate, jet fuel, and other refined products sold to retailers, railroads, farm cooperatives, and other refiners in the Group 3 PADD II mid-continent market, largely at spot prices indexed to NYMEX WTI. The company's gathering system — including owned, leased, and joint-venture pipelines — supplied 67% and 94% of the Coffeyville and Wynnewood refineries' crude oil needs, respectively, in 2025, providing a WTI-basis transportation cost advantage. The largest Petroleum Segment customer accounted for 12% of net sales in 2025. The Nitrogen Fertilizer Segment, operated via CVR Partners, derives revenue primarily from UAN (67% of segment 2025 net sales) and ammonia (24%), sold to agricultural retailers and industrial customers; the top two fertilizer customers represented 28% of segment net sales in 2025. Primary competitors in the mid-continent refining market include CHS Inc.'s McPherson Refinery, HF Sinclair Corporation's El Dorado and Tulsa Refineries, and Valero Energy Corporation's Ardmore Refinery.
Show full overview
Both CVR Energy refineries sit in the southern portion of Group 3 of the PADD II region, where the company primarily markets refined products. The 10-K explicitly flags this as a structural risk, noting CVR Energy is more susceptible to regional economic conditions than geographically diversified competitors. The Nitrogen Fertilizer Segment's sales to agricultural customers are further concentrated in the Great Plains and Midwest states, creating a seasonal demand profile that can shift materially based on weather and planting decisions. If regional crude differentials narrow or regional product demand weakens, revenue from both the Petroleum and Nitrogen Fertilizer segments could weigh on results simultaneously.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
From CVR Energy Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 4, 2026Recent Developments — CVR Energy Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS CVR Energy Announces Pricing of $500 Million Common Stock Offering — fiscal.ai Nov 4, 2026 negative
- NEWS Reported Earlier, CVR Energy Prices Offering Of 10,515,248 Common Shares At $47.55 Per Share; Expects About $490.0M Net — benzinga Nov 4, 2026 neutral
- NEWS CVR Energy Launches $750 Million Common Stock Offering — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 negative
- NEWS CVR Energy Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 neutral
- NEWS CVR Energy Makes Major Refining Push With $4.2 Billion Marathon Petroleum Deal — benzinga Nov 3, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 4, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:34:07Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerPetroleum Segment top customer12%10-K Item 1A: 'The largest customer of our Petroleum Segment comprised 12% of its net sales for the year ended December 31, 2025'
- MEDIUMCustomertop two Nitrogen Fertilizer customers28%10-K Item 1A: 'the top two customers of our Nitrogen Fertilizer Segment represented 28% of its net sales'
- MEDIUMCustomertop-2 Renewables customers50%10-K Item 1A: 'the Renewables Segment has two customers that each accounted for approximately 50% of its net sales'
- MEDIUMGeographicPADD II refining region10-K Item 1A: 'Our Refineries are both located in the southern portion of Group 3 of the PADD II region, and we primarily market refined products in a relatively limited geographic area'
- MEDIUMGeographicGreat Plains and Midwest10-K Item 1A: 'Our Nitrogen Fertilizer Segment's sales to agricultural customers are concentrated in the Great Plains and Midwest states'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 ceiling hit
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $43.01 — A.R:R is negative (-0.4) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4). Chart setup: Oversold RSI 22, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $40.00. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $40.38 reached (−6.1% from $43.01); no take-profit level is published. Prior stop was $40.00. Stop-loss: $40.00.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Leverage penalty (D/E 2.4): -1.5.
CVR Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 16.4 (forward 9.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts rate CVI, with a consensus score of 2.2/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $48.
What does CVR Energy Inc. do?CVR Energy holds two petroleum refineries in the southern PADD II mid-continent region — 132,000 bpd at Coffeyville,...
CVR Energy holds two petroleum refineries in the southern PADD II mid-continent region — 132,000 bpd at Coffeyville, Kansas and 74,500 bpd at Wynnewood, Oklahoma — plus nitrogen fertilizer manufacturing via its majority stake in CVR Partners. Revenue comes from petroleum product sales to mid-continent retailers and farm cooperatives, and from ammonia and UAN sold to agricultural customers.