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Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $61.63 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5).

Par Pacific Holdings operates four refineries (219 Mbpd combined capacity) in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, plus retail fuel outlets and a multi-modal logistics network serving the western US and Hawaii. The Hawaii refinery (94 Mbpd) serves Hawaii's isolated island... Read more

$61.63+1.6% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#8 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.83%
Stop $57.32Target $62.64(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$72.00+16.8%7 analysts
$62.64our TP
$61.63price
$72.00mean
$58
$80

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $61.63 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 76d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 54%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.0
P/E (Fwd)7.5
Mkt Cap$3.1B
EV/EBITDA5.8
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE33.3%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta0.91
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.43bullish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.6
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotMomentum 5.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 76d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $56.11Resistance $70.39

Price Targets

$57
$63
A.Upside+1.6%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.6% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (76d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PARR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $61.63 — A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $57.32. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PARR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $62.64 (+1.6% upside). Prior stop was $57.32. Stop-loss: $57.32.

What are the risks of investing in PARR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is PARR overvalued or undervalued?

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm trades at a P/E of 7.0 (forward 7.5). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PARR?

13 analysts cover PARR with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $72.

What does Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm do?Par Pacific Holdings operates four refineries (219 Mbpd combined capacity) in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana,...

Par Pacific Holdings operates four refineries (219 Mbpd combined capacity) in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, plus retail fuel outlets and a multi-modal logistics network serving the western US and Hawaii. The Hawaii refinery (94 Mbpd) serves Hawaii's isolated island market; continental refineries serve the Pacific Northwest and Rocky Mountain regions.

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