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PARRPar Pacific Holdings, Inc. CommSell5.8·$52.53-1.78%
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Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.53 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, processing 187.8 Mbpd in fiscal 2025 for the western United States market. The company also operates fuel retail outlets under Hele, nomnom, and 76... Read more

$52.53+24.2% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#6 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield4.42%
Stop $50.32Target $65.25(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$75.00+42.8%7 analysts
$65.25our TP
$52.53price
$75.00mean
$80

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.53 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 202649d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 60%
Analyst upside: 24%
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)6.1
P/E (Fwd)5.3
Mkt Cap$2.7B
EV/EBITDA5.3
Profit Mgn6.0%
ROE33.3%
Rev Growth4.5%
Beta0.82
DividendNone
Rating analysts13

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.36bullish
IV66%elevated
Max Pain$90+71.3% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.7
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
7.7
Uptrend pullback (RSI 38) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 49d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $51.88Resistance $62.31

Price Targets

$50
$65
A.Upside+24.2%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! momentum at 3.1 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (49d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PARR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.1/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.53 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $50.32. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PARR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $65.25 (+24.2% upside). Prior stop was $50.32. Stop-loss: $50.32.

What are the risks of investing in PARR?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.

Is PARR overvalued or undervalued?

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm trades at a P/E of 6.1 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PARR?

13 analysts cover PARR with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $75.

What does Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm do?Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington,...

Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, processing 187.8 Mbpd in fiscal 2025 for the western United States market. The company also operates fuel retail outlets under Hele, nomnom, and 76 brands in Hawaii, Washington, and Idaho, and a multi-modal logistics network in the Pacific, Northwest, and Rocky Mountain regions.

Related stocks: UGP (Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne) · CSAN (Cosan S.A.) · SUN (Sunoco LP) · DKL (Delek Logistics Partners, L.P.) · DINO (HF Sinclair Corporation)
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