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Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Earnings in 5 days (2026-05-05). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $65.78 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.3% away).

Par Pacific Holdings is a growth-oriented energy company operating four refineries in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana with 219 Mbpd total crude throughput capacity, plus retail fuel outlets and a multi-modal logistics network across the Pacific and Northwest. Revenue... Read more

$65.78+1.4% A.UpsideScore 5.0/10#11 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Stop $61.14Target $66.64(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$70.29+6.8%7 analysts
$66.64our TP
$65.78price
$70.29mean
$58
$80

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $65.78 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.3% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 38%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (3.3% away)
Earnings in 5 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.3
P/E (Fwd)9.8
Mkt Cap$3.3B
EV/EBITDA6.6
Profit Mgn4.9%
ROE26.8%
Rev Growth-1.0%
Beta0.97
DividendNone
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV80%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Revenue shrinking — -1.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.2
Declining revenue: -1%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.1>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $54.00Resistance $68.00

Price Targets

$61
$67
A.Upside+1.3%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-7.0% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside
! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:5d<=7d

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-05 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PARR stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $65.78 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (3.3% away). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $61.14. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PARR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $66.64 (+1.4% upside). Prior stop was $61.14. Stop-loss: $61.14.

What are the risks of investing in PARR?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (3.3% away); Earnings in 5 days (event risk).

Is PARR overvalued or undervalued?

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm trades at a P/E of 9.3 (forward 9.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PARR?

14 analysts cover PARR with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $70.

What does Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm do?Par Pacific Holdings is a growth-oriented energy company operating four refineries in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and...

Par Pacific Holdings is a growth-oriented energy company operating four refineries in Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana with 219 Mbpd total crude throughput capacity, plus retail fuel outlets and a multi-modal logistics network across the Pacific and Northwest. Revenue comes from refining margins and retail fuel sales. Par also holds a 46% equity stake in Laramie Energy, a natural gas producer in Colorado.

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