Par Pacific is a cheaply valued, high-ROE refiner with 57% revenue growth, but weak cash conversion, inconsistent earnings surprises, insider selling and only 7.3% upside to the analyst target limit the case for adding.
Thesis pillars
- Rapid Revenue Growth→Stable
- Cheap Valuation High Roe↑Improving
- Weak Cash Conversion→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Oct 24, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, processing 187.8 Mbpd in fiscal 2025 for the western United States market. The company also operates fuel retail outlets under Hele, nomnom, and 76... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 110d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Oct 27, 2026Recent Developments — Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm
Latest news
- NEWS PARR Assumes Neutral Rating by Piper Sandler -- Price Target Ann - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Par Pacific (NYSE:PARR) Shares Down 5.1% - Should You Sell? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 27, 2026 negative
- NEWS Has Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) Run Ahead Of Fair Value After Its 7.8% Jump? - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Par Petroleum (PARR) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Oct 27, 2026 neutral
- NEWS PARR Q3'26 Earnings: revenue estimate is 2.19B USD - TradingView — TradingView Oct 27, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 27, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:29:01Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 ceiling hits
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $69.66, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Analyst target $82.65 (+18.6%), stop $64.78 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Score 7.1/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $82.65 (+18.6% upside). Analyst target $82.65 (+18.6%), stop $64.78 (−7.5%), A.R:R 1.3:1. Stop-loss: $64.78.
Consecutive earnings misses (2); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm trades at a P/E of 3.7 (forward 4.2). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Hold.
14 analysts rate PARR, with a consensus score of 3.9/5. 8 analysts publish price targets averaging $95.
What does Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm do?Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington,...
Par Pacific Holdings owns four refineries with 219 Mbpd total throughput capacity across Hawaii, Wyoming, Washington, and Montana, processing 187.8 Mbpd in fiscal 2025 for the western United States market. The company also operates fuel retail outlets under Hele, nomnom, and 76 brands in Hawaii, Washington, and Idaho, and a multi-modal logistics network in the Pacific, Northwest, and Rocky Mountain regions.