Value
8.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 9.7 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.43
- ▸Attractively valued
PARR · Why this verdict
Why Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.8/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Par Pacific delivers a return on equity of 33%, ranking superior to peers and signaling above-average capital efficiency despite operating in a commodity-driven industry. Quality breakdown | ROE remains above 20% over the next four quarters as capital allocation discipline is maintained. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh ROE in refining can collapse rapidly during crack spread compression, which is not captured in trailing figures. | ||
At a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG ratio of 0.40, Par Pacific trades at a significant discount to intrinsic value, providing a 22% analyst upside with a margin of safety around 60%. Valuation breakdown | Price closes the gap toward the analyst target of $65.25 over 12 months as the discount is recognized. | →Stable |
| CounterRefining margins are cyclical and the low multiple may reflect sustained structural headwinds rather than temporary mispricing. | ||
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 61%, including a 203% beat, suggesting underlying earnings power that recent misses may understate. Earnings | The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, improving the beat ratio above 50%. | →Stable |
| CounterThe two recent consecutive misses suggest estimates may not yet have adjusted to lower refining margins, risking further disappointments. | ||
The stock sits above its 200-day moving average with strong Bollinger and support/resistance scores, suggesting a technical floor around $50.94 that limits downside. Technical breakdown | Price holds above $50.94 support level over the next 12 months without a sustained break below that floor. | →Stable |
| CounterWith negative price momentum and a failed momentum gate, the technical support may give way if broader refining sector selling pressure intensifies. | ||
Par Pacific delivers a return on equity of 33%, ranking superior to peers and signaling above-average capital efficiency despite operating in a commodity-driven industry.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE remains above 20% over the next four quarters as capital allocation discipline is maintained.
CounterHigh ROE in refining can collapse rapidly during crack spread compression, which is not captured in trailing figures.
At a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG ratio of 0.40, Par Pacific trades at a significant discount to intrinsic value, providing a 22% analyst upside with a margin of safety around 60%.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes the gap toward the analyst target of $65.25 over 12 months as the discount is recognized.
CounterRefining margins are cyclical and the low multiple may reflect sustained structural headwinds rather than temporary mispricing.
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 61%, including a 203% beat, suggesting underlying earnings power that recent misses may understate.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, improving the beat ratio above 50%.
CounterThe two recent consecutive misses suggest estimates may not yet have adjusted to lower refining margins, risking further disappointments.
The stock sits above its 200-day moving average with strong Bollinger and support/resistance scores, suggesting a technical floor around $50.94 that limits downside.
→StableTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above $50.94 support level over the next 12 months without a sustained break below that floor.
CounterWith negative price momentum and a failed momentum gate, the technical support may give way if broader refining sector selling pressure intensifies.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Par Pacific Holdings offers deep value in oil refining with a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG of 0.40, though consecutive earnings misses and high short interest at 13% cap near-term conviction until momentum recovers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 6.3 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.3 |
| Net margin | 3.0 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 2.1 |
| Moat | 4.9 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 33%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 26% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
4.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.6 |
| EPS growth | 4.7 |
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 7.0 |
| Volume | 2.9 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 5.8 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.1/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.2 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.4 |
| quality rank | 9.1 |
| growth rank | 2.8 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
3.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 1.2 |
| 52w position | 6.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.6 |
| days to cover | 6.0 |
| volatility | 2.8 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 2.3 |
| beta | 8.1 |
| debt equity | 5.8 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 6.20
- ▸High IV: 66%
Catalyst
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:30d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
0.77
Upside
+11.6%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
Setup— — No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $2.9B<$5B
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.9; weakest: Technical at 3.8. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.9, Momentum at 7.0, and Sentiment at 7.0; the weakest are Technical at 3.8, Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1, and Growth at 4.2. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.77 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Refining Multiple
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $55 for 2 consecutive months, eliminating the margin of safety.
- P2Roe Peer Advantage
Trip ifReturn on equity drops below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling deteriorating capital efficiency.
- P3Earnings Beat Mix Resolution
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 10% in 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming a structural shortfall.
- P4Technical Support Floor
Trip ifPrice drops below $50.94 support level and holds below that level for more than 5 trading days.