Value
8.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 10.0 |
| P/S | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.9 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 6.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.22
- ▸Attractively valued
PARR · Why this verdict
Why Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. Comm (PARR) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score7.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Par Pacific Holdings offers deep value in oil refining with a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG of 0.40, though consecutive earnings misses and high short interest at 13% cap near-term conviction until momentum recovers.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Par Pacific delivers a return on equity of 33%, ranking superior to peers and signaling above-average capital efficiency despite operating in a commodity-driven industry. Quality breakdown | ROE remains above 20% over the next four quarters as capital allocation discipline is maintained. | ↑Improving |
| CounterHigh ROE in refining can collapse rapidly during crack spread compression, which is not captured in trailing figures. | ||
At a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG ratio of 0.40, Par Pacific trades at a significant discount to intrinsic value, providing a 22% analyst upside with a margin of safety around 60%. Valuation breakdown | Price closes the gap toward the analyst target of $65.25 over 12 months as the discount is recognized. | ↑Improving |
| CounterRefining margins are cyclical and the low multiple may reflect sustained structural headwinds rather than temporary mispricing. | ||
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 61%, including a 203% beat, suggesting underlying earnings power that recent misses may understate. Earnings | The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, improving the beat ratio above 50%. | ↑Improving |
| CounterThe two recent consecutive misses suggest estimates may not yet have adjusted to lower refining margins, risking further disappointments. | ||
The stock sits above its 200-day moving average with strong Bollinger and support/resistance scores, suggesting a technical floor around $50.94 that limits downside. Technical breakdown | Price holds above $50.94 support level over the next 12 months without a sustained break below that floor. | ↑Improving |
| CounterWith negative price momentum and a failed momentum gate, the technical support may give way if broader refining sector selling pressure intensifies. | ||
Par Pacific delivers a return on equity of 33%, ranking superior to peers and signaling above-average capital efficiency despite operating in a commodity-driven industry.
↑ImprovingQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- ROE remains above 20% over the next four quarters as capital allocation discipline is maintained.
CounterHigh ROE in refining can collapse rapidly during crack spread compression, which is not captured in trailing figures.
At a forward P/E of 5.3x and PEG ratio of 0.40, Par Pacific trades at a significant discount to intrinsic value, providing a 22% analyst upside with a margin of safety around 60%.
↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Price closes the gap toward the analyst target of $65.25 over 12 months as the discount is recognized.
CounterRefining margins are cyclical and the low multiple may reflect sustained structural headwinds rather than temporary mispricing.
The company has beaten estimates in 2 of the last 4 quarters with an average surprise of 61%, including a 203% beat, suggesting underlying earnings power that recent misses may understate.
↑ImprovingEarnings
- Expectation
- The company beats consensus EPS estimates in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters, improving the beat ratio above 50%.
CounterThe two recent consecutive misses suggest estimates may not yet have adjusted to lower refining margins, risking further disappointments.
The stock sits above its 200-day moving average with strong Bollinger and support/resistance scores, suggesting a technical floor around $50.94 that limits downside.
↑ImprovingTechnical breakdown
- Expectation
- Price holds above $50.94 support level over the next 12 months without a sustained break below that floor.
CounterWith negative price momentum and a failed momentum gate, the technical support may give way if broader refining sector selling pressure intensifies.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 10.0 |
| Gross margin | 0.6 |
| Op margin | 8.4 |
| Net margin | 5.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.8 |
| Moat | 6.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 53%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 10% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
10.0/10data confidence 33%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 10.0 |
- ▸Strong growth: 57% YoY
Momentum
3.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.5 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 3.3 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.7 |
| Analyst rating | 6.7 |
| Price target | 6.5 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.54 (n=2)
- ▸Light analyst coverage (7.0) — signal dampened
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
7.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.6 |
| quality rank | 8.8 |
| growth rank | 8.9 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 5.8 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 7.3 |
Risk (lower is worse)
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.7 |
| days to cover | 5.9 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 8.9 |
| implied vol | 1.6 |
| beta | 8.3 |
| debt equity | 7.6 |
- ▸High IV: 70%
Catalyst
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 10.0 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (6)
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_BOOST:ANALYST:0.50
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:84d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:3.2<4.5
- ASYMMETRY:-0.3=NEGATIVE
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
-0.31
Upside
-4.3%
Downside
13.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRange Bound — RSI 45 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAggressive — MCap $3.6B<$5B
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: INSIDER:OK. Top dim: Growth at 10.0; weakest: Momentum at 3.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Growth at 10.0, Value at 8.7, and Peer rank at 7.9; the weakest are Momentum at 3.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 5.1, and Catalyst at 5.9. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -0.31 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Refining Multiple
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $55 for 2 consecutive months, eliminating the margin of safety.
- P2Roe Peer Advantage
Trip ifReturn on equity drops below 15% for 2 consecutive quarters, signaling deteriorating capital efficiency.
- P3Earnings Beat Mix Resolution
Trip ifEarnings miss consensus by more than 10% in 3 of the next 4 quarters, confirming a structural shortfall.
- P4Technical Support Floor
Trip ifPrice drops below $50.94 support level and holds below that level for more than 5 trading days.