Ultrapar Participacoes offers an exceptional valuation with a PEG of 0.05 and forward P/E of 8.1x, strong earnings growth, and an asymmetry ratio of 2.43 with 16% upside, but weak momentum and falling on-balance volume indicate the market has not yet recognized this value.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Value Peg Near Zero↑Improving
- Strong Earnings Growth Profile↓Deteriorating
- Momentum Weakness Volume Distribution↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6.40 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1).
Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz,... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6.40 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-28Recent Developments — Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne
Latest news
- NEWS Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (UGP) Crossed Above the 20-Day Moving Average: What That Means for Investors - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS UGP Initiates Coverage On by UBS -- Price Target Announced at $7 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS UBS initiates coverage of Ultrapar Participações SA - depositary receipt (UGP) with buy recommendation - MSN — MSN positive
- NEWS UGP|Ultrapar Participacoes SA|Price:6.500| - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS UGP Forecast — Price Target — Prediction for 2027 - TradingView — TradingView neutral
Generated 2026-10-28T11:33:56Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $6.40 — A.R:R 0.3:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $5.99. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $6.59 (+3.0% upside). Prior stop was $5.99. Stop-loss: $5.99.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=5.1); Negative news sentiment (-0.67).
Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne trades at a P/E of 10.3 (forward 10.0). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
21 analysts cover UGP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $8.
What does Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne do?Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure...
Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias segments. The company distributes and sells oil-related products, biofuels, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and additive fuels under the Ipimax brand to carriers, resellers, and retailers; operates service stations under the Ipiranga brand and convenience stores under the AmPm brand; and produces and sells lubricants under the ICONIC brand. It also engages in the distribution of bulk and bottled liquefied petroleum gas for the residential, condominium, trade, services, industrial, and agribusiness sectors; operation of a natural gas pipeline network; and provision of renewable electricity for businesses and households, as well as compressed natural gas and biomethane for corporate clients. In addition, the company operates liquid bulk storage terminals in logistics centers; waterway and multimodal infrastructure; and port operations. Further, the company offers logistics solutions for handling grains, ores, and fertilizers; automotive services through Jet Oil units; and loyalty programs under the Km de Vantagens (KMV) brand. It also exports its products and services. Ultrapar Participações S.A. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.