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UGPUltrapar Participacoes S.A. (NeHold6.5·$4.75-1.66%
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Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne (UGP) Stock Analysis

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5.

Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz,... Read more

$4.75+16.4% A.UpsideScore 6.5/10#1 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield56.18%
IncomeYield6.64%(5y avg 3.61%)Payout45.56%sustainable
Stop $4.58Target $5.54(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1
Analyst target$6.37+34.0%8 analysts
$5.54our TP
$4.75price
$6.37mean
$8

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 64d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-09
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Aug 12, 202664d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Attractive valuation
Strong growth profile
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)8.7
P/E (Fwd)8.1
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA2.9
Profit Mgn2.1%
ROE19.2%
Rev Growth10.3%
Beta0.31
Dividend6.64%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.9
Macd
2.2
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
9.1
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 14)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.6<4.5A.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 64d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
14 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $4.72Resistance $6.20

Price Targets

$5
$6
A.Upside+16.6%
A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.6 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-12 (64d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is UGP stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $4.75, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Target $5.54 (+16.6%), stop $4.58 (−3.7%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Score 6.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the UGP stock price target?

Take-profit target: $5.54 (+16.4% upside). Target $5.54 (+16.6%), stop $4.58 (−3.7%), A.R:R 2.3:1. Stop-loss: $4.58.

What are the risks of investing in UGP?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Leverage penalty (D/E 1.1): -0.5; Negative momentum.

Is UGP overvalued or undervalued?

Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne trades at a P/E of 8.7 (forward 8.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about UGP?

21 analysts cover UGP with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $6.

What does Ultrapar Participacoes S.A. (Ne do?Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure...

Ultrapar Participações S.A., through its subsidiaries, operates in the energy, mobility, and logistics infrastructure sectors in Brazil, the rest of Europe, the United States, Canada, other Latin American countries, Oceania, and internationally. It operates through Ultragaz, Ipiranga, Ultracargo, and Hidrovias segments. The company distributes and sells oil-related products, biofuels, gasoline, ethanol, diesel, fuel oil, kerosene, natural gas for vehicles, and additive fuels under the Ipimax brand to carriers, resellers, and retailers; operates service stations under the Ipiranga brand and convenience stores under the AmPm brand; and produces and sells lubricants under the ICONIC brand. It also engages in the distribution of bulk and bottled liquefied petroleum gas for the residential, condominium, trade, services, industrial, and agribusiness sectors; operation of a natural gas pipeline network; and provision of renewable electricity for businesses and households, as well as compressed natural gas and biomethane for corporate clients. In addition, the company operates liquid bulk storage terminals in logistics centers; waterway and multimodal infrastructure; and port operations. Further, the company offers logistics solutions for handling grains, ores, and fertilizers; automotive services through Jet Oil units; and loyalty programs under the Km de Vantagens (KMV) brand. It also exports its products and services. Ultrapar Participações S.A. was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

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