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PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.37: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality.

PBF Energy is one of the largest independent U.S. petroleum refiners, operating six refineries in Delaware, New Jersey, Ohio, Louisiana, and California (two) with combined throughput of approximately 1 million bpd and a weighted-average Nelson Complexity Index of 12.8. It... Read more

$44.37+7.5% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#15 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Stop $41.30Target $47.74(resistance)A.R:R -1.2:1
Analyst target$42.00-5.3%12 analysts
$47.74our TP
$44.37price
$42.00mean
$28
$62

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.37: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-17.7% upside)
Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)10.4
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA-16.6
Profit Mgn-0.5%
ROE-2.9%
Rev Growth-2.9%
Beta0.23
Dividend2.55%
Rating analysts21

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Options Flow

P/C0.50bullish
IV84%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Piotroski F
3.3
Current Ratio
4.6
Moat
5.0
Cash-burning: FCF -2% of revenueNo competitive moatWeak Piotroski F-Score: 3/9Quality concerns

Revenue shrinking — -2.9% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.8
Declining revenue: -3%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).
GatesA.R:R -1.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.3>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $36.12Resistance $48.71

Price Targets

$41
$48
A.Upside+7.6%
A.R:R-1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-17.7% upside)
! Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-30 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.37: Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 14%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $41.30. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PBF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $47.74 (+7.5% upside). Prior stop was $41.30. Stop-loss: $41.30.

What are the risks of investing in PBF?

Target reached (-17.7% upside); Quality below floor (1.4 < 4.0).

Is PBF overvalued or undervalued?

PBF Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 10.4). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PBF?

21 analysts cover PBF with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $42.

What does PBF Energy Inc. do?PBF Energy is one of the largest independent U.S. petroleum refiners, operating six refineries in Delaware, New Jersey,...

PBF Energy is one of the largest independent U.S. petroleum refiners, operating six refineries in Delaware, New Jersey, Ohio, Louisiana, and California (two) with combined throughput of approximately 1 million bpd and a weighted-average Nelson Complexity Index of 12.8. It operates Refining and Logistics segments and sells products across the Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast. A Martinez refinery fire in February 2025 caused a temporary shutdown; restart was completed by March 2026.

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