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PBF Energy Inc. (PBF) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.38: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.16; Below-average business quality.

PBF Energy is an independent petroleum refiner operating six US refineries with ~1 million bpd combined throughput, producing gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals. Revenue is driven by crack spreads; the company sells unbranded products through spot and term agreements... Read more

$42.38+5.8% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#9 of 15 Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield-17.48%
IncomeYield2.57%(5y avg 5.16%)Payout29.02%sustainable
Stop $39.77Target $45.23(resistance)A.R:R -0.9:1
Analyst target$43.33+2.2%12 analysts
$45.23our TP
$42.38price
$43.33mean
$30
$62

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.38: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.16; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 70d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — PBF Energy Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-11.8% upside)
Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.3
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$5.1B
EV/EBITDA-52.2
Profit Mgn1.5%
ROE8.2%
Rev Growth11.9%
Beta0.14
Dividend2.57%
Rating analysts20

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C2.16bearish
IV74%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Roa
0.0
Gross Margin
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Net Margin
0.7
Roe
2.7
Piotroski F
4.4
Current Ratio
4.9
Moat
5.6
Earnings quality RED FLAG: -200% FCF/NIQuality concerns
GatesA.R:R -0.9=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 70d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
50 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $38.50Resistance $46.15

Price Targets

$40
$45
A.Upside+6.7%
A.R:R-0.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-11.8% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (70d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is PBF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $42.38: Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 13%; Elevated put/call ratio: 2.16; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 50 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $39.77. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the PBF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $45.23 (+5.8% upside). Prior stop was $39.77. Stop-loss: $39.77.

What are the risks of investing in PBF?

Target reached (-11.8% upside); Quality below floor (2.0 < 4.0).

Is PBF overvalued or undervalued?

PBF Energy Inc. trades at a P/E of 11.3 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about PBF?

20 analysts cover PBF with a consensus score of 2.5/5. Average price target: $43.

What does PBF Energy Inc. do?PBF Energy is an independent petroleum refiner operating six US refineries with ~1 million bpd combined throughput,...

PBF Energy is an independent petroleum refiner operating six US refineries with ~1 million bpd combined throughput, producing gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and petrochemicals. Revenue is driven by crack spreads; the company sells unbranded products through spot and term agreements to customers across the Northeast, Midwest, Gulf Coast, and West Coast.

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