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OTEXOpen Text CorporationSell5.3·$24.55+4.11%
SellHigh Confidence
Investment thesis

Open Text trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 4.9x with a PEG of 0.05, making it attractively valued relative to its earnings beat history and 162% free-cash-flow conversion rate, but a death-cross technical pattern and high implied volatility of 77% keep near-term risk elevated.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Fcf ConversionStable
  • Earnings Beat StreakDeteriorating
  • Piotroski Quality SignalStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

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Open Text Corporation (OTEX) Stock Analysis

SellValueGrowthHigh Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

Open Text Corporation provides Information Management software and services — spanning content management, cybersecurity, supply-chain/business network, IT service management, DevOps, and analytics — delivered via private cloud, public cloud, off-cloud, or API deployment to... Read more

$24.55-1.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#100 of 122 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield22.60%
IncomeYield4.75%(5y avg 3.03%)Payout42.64%sustainable
Stop $23.24Target $25.13(resistance)A.R:R -0.2:1
Analyst target$27.95+13.9%11 analysts
$25.13our TP
$24.55price
$27.95mean
$33

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/9 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 61d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About Open Text Corporation

About Open Text Corporation

OpenText's Content Cloud, its largest of six business clouds, generated 40% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, followed by Cybersecurity Cloud at 25%, Business Network Cloud, DevOps Cloud, and Observability and Service Management Cloud at 10% each, and Analytics Cloud at 5%. The company serves Global 10,000 enterprises, SMBs, governments, and consumers, following its $6.2 billion acquisition of Micro Focus International in January 2023 and its $2.275 billion divestiture of the Application Modernization and Connectivity business to Rocket Software in May 2024.

OpenText earns revenue from cloud subscriptions, on-premise licenses, and professional and managed services, delivered off-cloud, in the OpenText Cloud, in hybrid scenarios, or through partner clouds including Google Cloud Platform, Amazon Web Services, and Microsoft Azure. Within cloud services and subscriptions revenue specifically, Business Network Cloud and Cybersecurity Cloud each contributed 30% and Content Cloud contributed 25%, a different mix than the total-revenue split, reflecting how much of Content Cloud's revenue still comes from on-premise licenses rather than subscriptions. The company used the AMC Divestiture proceeds to complete a $2.0 billion debt reduction, terminating its Term Loan B and paying down its Acquisition Term Loan. OpenText's software also depends on third-party infrastructure software, including products from Hewlett-Packard, Oracle, and Microsoft, and the 10-K notes that weaknesses in that underlying infrastructure software could harm OpenText's reputation and business if the company cannot correct or compensate for them.

Show full overview

OpenText's own software runs on top of infrastructure it doesn't control: the 10-K states that its Internet and intranet applications depend on the stability, functionality, and scalability of infrastructure software from named third parties, including Hewlett-Packard, Oracle, and Microsoft, and that OpenText 'may not be able to correct or compensate for' weaknesses in that infrastructure if they exist. That dependency sits underneath a company whose growth strategy is built on acquiring and integrating outside technology — the $6.2 billion Micro Focus deal being the largest example — meaning OpenText's competitive position rests as much on the reliability of vendors and acquired codebases it doesn't fully control as on its own six business clouds.

See also: Technology · Software - Application

From Open Text Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-04
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 5, 202661d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 39%
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)9.1
P/E (Fwd)5.8
Mkt Cap$6.0B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn12.3%
ROE16.2%
Rev Growth2.9%
Beta1.03
Dividend4.75%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.75bearish
IV70%elevated
Max Pain$33+32.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductContent Cloud40%
    10-K Item 1: 'For the year ended June 30, 2025, total revenues is comprised of 40% from Content Cloud, 25% from Cybersecurity Cloud'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    James McGourlay transitioned from Interim CEO to President, Chief Client Officer, effective April 20, 2026; no successor CEO named in this filing. Same day, Paul Duggan stepped down as President/Chief Customer Officer to EVP, Special Advisor, departing the company July 1, 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Revenue Growth
3.2
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Macd
2.2
Volume
3.0
Rsi
4.5
Ma Position
6.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.8
Bollinger
3.0
Support Resistance
3.7
Gap
5.0
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Executive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 61d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $22.92Resistance $25.64

Price Targets

$23
$25
A.Upside-1.3%
A.R:R-0.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-1.3% upside)
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-05 (61d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OTEX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $24.55 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $23.24. Score 5.3/10, high confidence.

What is the OTEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $25.13 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $23.24. Stop-loss: $23.24.

What are the risks of investing in OTEX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.5): -0.5.

Is OTEX overvalued or undervalued?

Open Text Corporation trades at a P/E of 9.1 (forward 5.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OTEX?

9 analysts cover OTEX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $28.

What does Open Text Corporation do?Open Text Corporation provides Information Management software and services — spanning content management,...

Open Text Corporation provides Information Management software and services — spanning content management, cybersecurity, supply-chain/business network, IT service management, DevOps, and analytics — delivered via private cloud, public cloud, off-cloud, or API deployment to enterprises, SMBs, governments, and consumers worldwide. In fiscal 2025, Content Cloud, its largest business cloud, generated 40% of total revenue, following the January 2023 Micro Focus acquisition and the May 2024 divestiture of its AMC business to Rocket Software.

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