Open Text Corporation (OTEX) Stock Analysis

Q: What is the OTEX stock price target?

Take-profit $28.00 (+24.9% upside). Prior stop was $20.84.

Q: Is OTEX overvalued or undervalued?

Open Text Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.1 (forward 5.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Overall verdict: Sell.

Q: What do analysts say about OTEX?

10 analysts cover OTEX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $32.

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate ConfidenceUpdated 2026-04-30

Technology · Software - Application

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $22.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).

OpenText is a Canadian information management software company offering cloud, on-premise, and hybrid products for data management, cybersecurity, and digital business processes to enterprises globally. In January 2023, it completed the $6.2B acquisition of Micro Focus; in May... Read more

$22.40+24.9% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#59 of 96 Software - Application

Stop $20.84Target $28.00(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.3:1

Analyst target$32.18+43.7%11 analysts

$28.00our TP

$22.40price

$32.18mean

$50

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards

Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)

Attractive valuation

Analyst upside: 25%

Risks

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0

Earnings in 7 days (event risk)

Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.1

P/E (Fwd)5.1

Mkt Cap$5.7B

EV/EBITDA7.2

Profit Mgn8.4%

ROE10.5%

Rev Growth-0.6%

Beta1.09

Dividend4.86%

Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C3.75bearish

IV75%elevated

Max Pain$55+145.5% vs spot

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

2026-04-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
Paul Duggan stepped down as President, Chief Customer Officer effective April 20, 2026; will serve as EVP Special Advisor until departure July 1, 2026. James McGourlay transitioned from Interim CEO to President, Chief Client Officer. No disagreement cited.
SEC filing →
2026-01-29Item 5.02MEDIUM
Ayman Antoun (formerly President of IBM Americas) appointed CEO and Board member effective April 20, 2026, succeeding Interim CEO James McGourlay. P. Thomas Jenkins returns to Chair role upon transition. Clean handoff with named successor.
SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Overall = weighted sum of the 10 dimension scores. Fundamentals (Value/Quality/Growth) carry 45%; market signals (Momentum/Sentiment/Insider/Peer) carry 40%; structure (Technical/Risk/Catalyst) carries 15%.

DimensionScoreWeightContribution

Value8.915%1.33

Quality5.915%0.89

Growth6.215%0.93

Momentum2.410%0.24

Sentiment6.410%0.64

Insider Activity5.210%0.52

Peer Rank3.710%0.37

Technical Setup3.55%0.18

Risk Profile3.95%0.20

Catalyst5.35%0.27

Overall (Σ contributions)5.55

Small float-rounding may cause last-digit differences between this sum and the displayed Overall.

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume

0.0

Obv

1.0

Ma Position

1.0

Rsi

3.3

Macd

6.8

Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.7%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position

1.4

Support Resistance

4.0

Bollinger

5.2

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank

0.4

Quality Rank

5.2

Value Rank

9.0

Attractive P/E vs peers

GatesMomentum 2.4<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dA.R:R 2.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate

RSI

67 · Neutral

↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $20.00Resistance $24.03

Price Targets

$21

$28

A.Upside+25.0%

A.R:R2.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone

Suggested %0.5%

Max %1%

RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 2.4/10 — below 4.5 minimum

! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

! EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d

Earnings

3/4 beats

Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first

Loading history...

Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.

Frequently Asked Questions

Is OTEX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $22.40 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Earnings in 7 days (event risk). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Prior stop was $20.84. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OTEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $28.00 (+24.9% upside). Prior stop was $20.84. Stop-loss: $20.84.

What are the risks of investing in OTEX?

Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Earnings in 7 days (event risk); Negative momentum.

Is OTEX overvalued or undervalued?

Open Text Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.1 (forward 5.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OTEX?

10 analysts cover OTEX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $32.

What does Open Text Corporation do?OpenText is a Canadian information management software company offering cloud, on-premise, and hybrid products for data...