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Open Text Corporation (OTEX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $22.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

OpenText is an Information Management software company offering cloud and hybrid solutions across six platforms: Content (40% of FY2025 revenue), Cybersecurity (25%), Business Network (10%), DevOps (10%), Observability and Service Management (10%), and Analytics (5%). Revenue... Read more

$22.91+14.7% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#33 of 98 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield14.48%
IncomeYield4.85%(5y avg 2.83%)Payout52.79%sustainable
Stop $21.22Target $26.18(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.6:1
Analyst target$30.09+31.3%11 analysts
$26.18our TP
$22.91price
$30.09mean
$45

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $22.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Open Text Corporation

Material events (past 30 days)

  • Apr 20, 2026 MEDIUM Item 5.02: James McGourlay transitioned from Interim CEO to President/Chief Client Officer effective April 20, 2026. Paul Duggan stepped down as President/Chief Customer Officer, remaining as EVP Special Advisor until July 1, 2026. No reason cited for Duggan's departure.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.6
P/E (Fwd)5.3
Mkt Cap$5.8B
EV/EBITDA7.0
Profit Mgn9.9%
ROE12.8%
Rev Growth2.2%
Beta1.05
Dividend4.85%
Rating analysts10

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.56bullish
IV58%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMProductContent Cloud40%
    10-K Item 1: 'For the year ended June 30, 2025, total revenues is comprised of 40% from Content Cloud'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-04-20Item 5.02MEDIUM
    James McGourlay transitioned from Interim CEO to President/Chief Client Officer effective April 20, 2026. Paul Duggan stepped down as President/Chief Customer Officer, remaining as EVP Special Advisor until July 1, 2026. No reason cited for Duggan's departure.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.5
Quality Rank
5.7
Value Rank
9.0
Attractive P/E vs peers

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
3.0
Macd
3.2
Rsi
4.5
Volume
7.8
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -2.8%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 1.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Moderate
RSI
53 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $21.86Resistance $25.23

Price Targets

$21
$26
A.Upside+14.3%
A.R:R1.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.9/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OTEX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $22.91 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: RSI 53 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $21.22. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OTEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $26.18 (+14.7% upside). Prior stop was $21.22. Stop-loss: $21.22.

What are the risks of investing in OTEX?

Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0; Negative momentum.

Is OTEX overvalued or undervalued?

Open Text Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.6 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OTEX?

10 analysts cover OTEX with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $30.

What does Open Text Corporation do?OpenText is an Information Management software company offering cloud and hybrid solutions across six platforms:...

OpenText is an Information Management software company offering cloud and hybrid solutions across six platforms: Content (40% of FY2025 revenue), Cybersecurity (25%), Business Network (10%), DevOps (10%), Observability and Service Management (10%), and Analytics (5%). Revenue from cloud subscriptions, managed services, licenses, and professional services serves global enterprises and governments.

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