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OSKOshkosh Corporation (Holding CoHold6.1·$155.14+2.09%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Oshkosh Corporation offers deep value at 9.7x forward earnings and a PEG of 0.17, but two consecutive earnings misses, a thin 6.8% upside, an inverted asymmetry ratio, and negative news flow create a hold-not-buy situation at current prices.

Thesis pillars

  • Consecutive Earnings MissesStable
  • Deep Value Low PegDeteriorating
  • News Flow Negative SignalDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co (OSK) Stock Analysis

Momentum Cont setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Earnings in 3 days (2026-07-28). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $155.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures purpose-built vehicles across three segments: Access equipment (43% of 2025 net sales), Vocational vehicles (36%), and Transport/defense (20%), spanning aerial work platforms, fire apparatus, defense vehicles, and refuse collection.... Read more

$155.14-5.4% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#3 of 17 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.50%
IncomeYield1.50%(5y avg 1.59%)Payout23.39%sustainable
Entry $141.36(200-day MA)Stop $133.99Target $154.10(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$163.01+5.1%17 analysts
$154.10our TP
$155.14price
$163.01mean
$138
$197

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $155.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $155.14 has reached target $154.10. No upside to wait for. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 20263d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)16.9
P/E (Fwd)11.1
Mkt Cap$9.7B
EV/EBITDA9.7
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE13.3%
Rev Growth0.2%
Beta1.23
Dividend1.50%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C3.00bearish
IV55%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerU.S. government20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 20% of our net sales in 2025 were to the U.S. government'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.2
Support Resistance
1.1
52w Position
7.3
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dMomentum 7.7>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARMomentum ContSuitability: Moderate
RSI
68 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $138.13Resistance $157.25

Price Targets

$134
$141
$154
A.Upside-5.4%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.4% upside)
! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OSK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $155.14, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reason: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Trend continuation, RSI 68, MACD bullish. Downgraded from BUY WAIT — price $155.14 has reached target $154.10. No upside to wait for. Target $154.10 (-0.7%), stop $133.99 (−15.8%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OSK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $154.10 (-5.4% upside). Target $154.10 (-0.7%), stop $133.99 (−15.8%), A.R:R -0.5:1. Stop-loss: $133.99.

What are the risks of investing in OSK?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is OSK overvalued or undervalued?

Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co trades at a P/E of 16.9 (forward 11.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about OSK?

22 analysts cover OSK with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $163.

What does Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co do?Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures purpose-built vehicles across three segments: Access equipment (43% of...

Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures purpose-built vehicles across three segments: Access equipment (43% of 2025 net sales), Vocational vehicles (36%), and Transport/defense (20%), spanning aerial work platforms, fire apparatus, defense vehicles, and refuse collection. About 20% of annual net sales derive from U.S. government contracts, primarily multi-year DoD tactical vehicle programs and a 10-year NGDV contract with the USPS for up to 165,000 vehicles. The company operates 37 manufacturing facilities.

Related stocks: FSS (Federal Signal Corporation) · TEX (Terex Corporation) · AEBI (Aebi Schmidt Holding AG) · AGCO (AGCO Corporation) · BLBD (Blue Bird Corporation)
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