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TEXTerex CorporationSell5.3·$57.33
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Terex Corporation delivered 41% revenue growth year-over-year and has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst price target leaving only 1.3% upside against 7% downside, and an extreme put-to-call ratio of 19x signals hedging pressure.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Growth Leadership→Stable
  • Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
  • Options Market Hedging Pressure↓Deteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Terex Corporation (TEX) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $57.33 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Terex manufactures industrial equipment across three segments—Environmental Solutions (refuse/recycling/utility), Materials Processing (crushing/screening/specialty), and Aerials (aerial work platforms/telehandlers)—sold globally through distributors and rental companies.... Read more

$57.33+21.3% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#8 of 18 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.34%
IncomeYield1.17%(5y avg 1.22%)Payout32.54%sustainable
Stop $53.97Target $69.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$79.94+39.4%13 analysts
$69.55our TP
$57.33price
$79.94mean
$100

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $57.33 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-25
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202633d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 21%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.9
P/E (Fwd)9.5
Mkt Cap$6.5B
EV/EBITDA14.3
Profit Mgn2.2%
ROE4.2%
Rev Growth50.5%
Beta1.50
Dividend1.17%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C4.67bearish
IV46%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.

Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.8
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.2
Volume
2.2
Rsi
3.0
Capitulation risk (RSI 27, below 200MA)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+3.8%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 1.8<4.5A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 33d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
27 · Oversold
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $55.64Resistance $64.94

Price Targets

$54
$70
A.Upside+21.3%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 1.8 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (33d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TEX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 1.8/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $57.33 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $53.97. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.55 (+21.3% upside). Prior stop was $53.97. Stop-loss: $53.97.

What are the risks of investing in TEX?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is TEX overvalued or undervalued?

Terex Corporation trades at a P/E of 27.9 (forward 9.5). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TEX?

19 analysts cover TEX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $80.

What does Terex Corporation do?Terex manufactures industrial equipment across three segments—Environmental Solutions (refuse/recycling/utility),...

Terex manufactures industrial equipment across three segments—Environmental Solutions (refuse/recycling/utility), Materials Processing (crushing/screening/specialty), and Aerials (aerial work platforms/telehandlers)—sold globally through distributors and rental companies. Revenue comes from new equipment sales and lifecycle parts/service support. In February 2026, Terex completed its merger with REV Group.

Related stocks: BLBD (Blue Bird Corporation) · OSK (Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co) · AEBI (Aebi Schmidt Holding AG) · FSS (Federal Signal Corporation) · ASTE (Astec Industries, Inc.)
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