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TEXTerex CorporationSell5.5·$63.23+0.75%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Terex Corporation delivered 41% revenue growth year-over-year and has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst price target leaving only 1.3% upside against 7% downside, and an extreme put-to-call ratio of 19x signals hedging pressure.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Growth LeadershipStable
  • Earnings Beat StreakStable
  • Options Market Hedging PressureImproving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Terex Corporation (TEX) Stock Analysis

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. At $63.23, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 10.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2).

Terex manufactures industrial equipment across three segments—Environmental Solutions (refuse/recycling/utility), Materials Processing (crushing/screening/specialty), and Aerials (aerial work platforms/telehandlers)—sold globally through distributors and rental companies.... Read more

$63.23+10.0% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#8 of 18 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.21%
IncomeYield1.08%(5y avg 1.22%)Payout32.54%sustainable
Stop $58.80Target $69.55(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.2:1
Analyst target$79.94+26.4%13 analysts
$69.55our TP
$63.23price
$79.94mean
$100

Sell if holding. At $63.23, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 10.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 53d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-09-05
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202653d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Risks
Thin upside margin: 10.0%
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)30.0
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$7.2B
EV/EBITDA14.9
Profit Mgn2.2%
ROE4.2%
Rev Growth50.5%
Beta1.50
Dividend1.08%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.01bullish
IV47%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotMomentum 4.6<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 4.6>=4.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 53d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
38 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $59.10Resistance $68.85

Price Targets

$59
$70
A.Upside+10.0%
A.R:R1.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 1.2 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (53d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TEX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $63.23, A.R:R 1.2:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 10.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $58.80. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $69.55 (+10.0% upside). Prior stop was $58.80. Stop-loss: $58.80.

What are the risks of investing in TEX?

Thin upside margin: 10.0%; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.2); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Is TEX overvalued or undervalued?

Terex Corporation trades at a P/E of 30.0 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TEX?

19 analysts cover TEX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $80.

What does Terex Corporation do?Terex manufactures industrial equipment across three segments—Environmental Solutions (refuse/recycling/utility),...

Terex manufactures industrial equipment across three segments—Environmental Solutions (refuse/recycling/utility), Materials Processing (crushing/screening/specialty), and Aerials (aerial work platforms/telehandlers)—sold globally through distributors and rental companies. Revenue comes from new equipment sales and lifecycle parts/service support. In February 2026, Terex completed its merger with REV Group.

Related stocks: BLBD (Blue Bird Corporation) · AEBI (Aebi Schmidt Holding AG) · FSS (Federal Signal Corporation) · OSK (Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co) · ALG (Alamo Group, Inc.)
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