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TEXTerex CorporationSell5.5·$52.21
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Terex Corporation delivered 41% revenue growth year-over-year and has beaten earnings estimates in all 4 of the last 4 quarters, but the stock has essentially reached its analyst price target leaving only 1.3% upside against 7% downside, and an extreme put-to-call ratio of 19x signals hedging pressure.

Thesis pillars

  • Revenue Growth Leadership→Stable
  • Earnings Beat Streak↓Deteriorating
  • Options Market Hedging Pressure↑Improving
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Terex Corporation (TEX) Stock Analysis

Catalyst-Driven edge

SellGrowthModerate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Terex manufactures industrial equipment across three segments—Environmental Solutions (refuse/recycling/utility), Materials Processing (crushing/screening/specialty), and Aerials (aerial work platforms/telehandlers)—sold globally through distributors and rental companies.... Read more

$52.21+26.8% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#7 of 18 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.55%
IncomeYield1.28%(5y avg 1.20%)Payout32.54%sustainable
Stop $48.56Target $66.20(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.9:1
Analyst target$76.09+45.7%13 analysts
$66.20our TP
$52.21price
$76.09mean
$98

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Oct 29, 202614d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 27%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)25.4
P/E (Fwd)8.9
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA13.6
Profit Mgn2.2%
ROE4.2%
Rev Growth50.5%
Beta1.47
Dividend1.28%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.04bearish
IV79%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
1.9
Volume
2.0
Ma Position
2.2
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA but MA still rising (+2.1%/30d) — pullback in uptrend, not confirmed weakness
GatesMomentum 3.9<4.5EARNINGS PROXIMITY 14d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 2.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $50.06Resistance $61.03

Price Targets

$49
$66
A.Upside+26.8%
A.R:R2.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.9 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-10-29 (14d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is TEX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.9/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $52.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $48.56. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the TEX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $66.20 (+26.8% upside). Prior stop was $48.56. Stop-loss: $48.56.

What are the risks of investing in TEX?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.1); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Negative momentum.

Is TEX overvalued or undervalued?

Terex Corporation trades at a P/E of 25.4 (forward 8.9). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about TEX?

19 analysts cover TEX with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $76.

What does Terex Corporation do?Terex manufactures industrial equipment across three segments—Environmental Solutions (refuse/recycling/utility),...

Terex manufactures industrial equipment across three segments—Environmental Solutions (refuse/recycling/utility), Materials Processing (crushing/screening/specialty), and Aerials (aerial work platforms/telehandlers)—sold globally through distributors and rental companies. Revenue comes from new equipment sales and lifecycle parts/service support. In February 2026, Terex completed its merger with REV Group.

Related stocks: BLBD (Blue Bird Corporation) · OSK (Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co) · AEBI (Aebi Schmidt Holding AG) · FSS (Federal Signal Corporation) · ASTE (Astec Industries, Inc.)
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