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OSKOshkosh Corporation (Holding CoSell5.8·$138.10+1.06%
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Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co (OSK) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. At $138.10, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures purpose-built vehicles across three segments: Access equipment (43% of 2025 net sales), Vocational vehicles (36%), and Transport/defense (20%), spanning aerial work platforms, fire apparatus, defense vehicles, and refuse collection.... Read more

$138.10+5.7% A.UpsideScore 5.8/10#3 of 13 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.24%
IncomeYield1.67%(5y avg 1.59%)Payout23.39%sustainable
Stop $129.00Target $145.97(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$162.19+17.4%17 analysts
$145.97our TP
$138.10price
$162.19mean
$197

Sell if holding. At $138.10, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Fri, Jul 31, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Risks
Thin upside margin: 5.7%
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Below 200-MA (27d, -1.1%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.2
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$8.5B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE13.3%
Rev Growth0.2%
Beta1.26
Dividend1.67%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$200+44.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerU.S. government20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'Approximately 20% of our net sales in 2025 were to the U.S. government'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.6
Bollinger
0.7
52w Position
5.4
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $116.25Resistance $139.43

Price Targets

$129
$146
A.Upside+5.7%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=-1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING
! asymmetry at 0.4 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OSK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $138.10, A.R:R 0.4:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $129.00. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OSK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $145.97 (+5.7% upside). Prior stop was $129.00. Stop-loss: $129.00.

What are the risks of investing in OSK?

Thin upside margin: 5.7%; Consecutive earnings misses (2); Below 200-MA (27d, -1.1%).

Is OSK overvalued or undervalued?

Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co trades at a P/E of 15.2 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OSK?

22 analysts cover OSK with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $162.

What does Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co do?Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures purpose-built vehicles across three segments: Access equipment (43% of...

Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures purpose-built vehicles across three segments: Access equipment (43% of 2025 net sales), Vocational vehicles (36%), and Transport/defense (20%), spanning aerial work platforms, fire apparatus, defense vehicles, and refuse collection. About 20% of annual net sales derive from U.S. government contracts, primarily multi-year DoD tactical vehicle programs and a 10-year NGDV contract with the USPS for up to 165,000 vehicles. The company operates 37 manufacturing facilities.

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