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Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co (OSK) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $119.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures specialty purpose-built vehicles through Access (43%), Vocational (36%), and Transport (20%) segments of 2025 net sales, serving construction, firefighting, aviation, refuse, and defense/delivery markets. Transport includes multi-year... Read more

$119.11+24.5% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 12 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield6.99%
IncomeYield1.87%(5y avg 1.58%)Payout23.39%sustainable
Stop $113.27Target $148.31(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.1:1
Analyst target$164.79+38.4%17 analysts
$148.31our TP
$119.11price
$164.79mean
$197

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $119.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 72d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 25%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Consecutive earnings misses (2)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.6
P/E (Fwd)8.7
Mkt Cap$7.6B
EV/EBITDA7.8
Profit Mgn5.5%
ROE13.3%
Rev Growth0.2%
Beta1.33
Dividend1.87%
Rating analysts22

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.88neutral
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerU.S. government20%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 20% of its net sales in both 2025 and 2024, and 19% in 2023, from sales to the United States (U.S.) government'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 ceiling hit

GatesMomentum 4.0<4.5A.R:R 2.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 72d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
28 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $116.77Resistance $159.84

Price Targets

$113
$148
A.Upside+24.5%
A.R:R2.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 4.0/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-31 (72d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is OSK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 4.0/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $119.11 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $113.27. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the OSK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $148.31 (+24.5% upside). Prior stop was $113.27. Stop-loss: $113.27.

What are the risks of investing in OSK?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.4); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

Is OSK overvalued or undervalued?

Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co trades at a P/E of 13.6 (forward 8.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about OSK?

22 analysts cover OSK with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $165.

What does Oshkosh Corporation (Holding Co do?Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures specialty purpose-built vehicles through Access (43%), Vocational (36%),...

Oshkosh Corporation designs and manufactures specialty purpose-built vehicles through Access (43%), Vocational (36%), and Transport (20%) segments of 2025 net sales, serving construction, firefighting, aviation, refuse, and defense/delivery markets. Transport includes multi-year DoD contracts and the USPS NGDV program (up to 165,000 units over 10 years).

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