Alamo Group screens attractively valued at a forward price-to-earnings of 12.6 times with 20% analyst upside — but three consecutive earnings misses before the most recent beat, a confirmed price downtrend, and a free-cash-flow conversion warning at 57% of net income create a setup that favors waiting for evidence of execution improvement before initiating.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation Provides Downside Floor→Stable
- Death Cross Confirmed Downtrend↓Deteriorating
- Three Consecutive Earnings Misses→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $161.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Alamo Group manufactures industrial and vegetation management equipment through two divisions—Industrial Equipment (vacuum trucks, street sweepers, excavators, snow removal) and Vegetation Management (tractor mowers, forestry equipment)—operating 27 manufacturing facilities... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $161.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Alamo Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Alamo Group (ALG) Could Be 22% Undervalued As Cash Flow Narrative Builds - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
- NEWS ALG|Alamo Group Inc|Price:157.045|Chg%:+0.095 - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS ALG|Alamo Group Inc|Price:157.045|Chg%:+0.095 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
- NEWS Alamo Group Inc. (ALG) Q1 2026 Earnings: EPS Beats Estimates by 8.28%, Stock Slightly Down - dars.gov.et — dars.gov.et positive
- NEWS Alamo Group Inc. (ALG) Q1 2026 Earnings: EPS Beats Estimates by 8.28%, Stock Slightly Down - EBITDA Margin Trends - dars — dars.gov.et positive
Generated 2026-09-25T17:02:09Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomergovernmental entities and related contractors10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of our revenues is derived from sales to federal, state, provincial and local governmental entities and related contractors'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-19Item 5.02MEDIUMRichard H. Raborn, EVP of the Vegetation Management Division, retiring May 29, 2026. Separation agreement includes base salary continuation of $536,000 over 12 months. Departure not due to any disagreement with company operations, financial reporting, or accounting practices. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 1.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $161.90 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 26, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $151.76. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $178.18 (+10.1% upside). Prior stop was $151.76. Stop-loss: $151.76.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Alamo Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.7 (forward 13.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts cover ALG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $205.
What does Alamo Group, Inc. do?Alamo Group manufactures industrial and vegetation management equipment through two divisions—Industrial Equipment...
Alamo Group manufactures industrial and vegetation management equipment through two divisions—Industrial Equipment (vacuum trucks, street sweepers, excavators, snow removal) and Vegetation Management (tractor mowers, forestry equipment)—operating 27 manufacturing facilities across North America, Europe, Brazil, and Australia. Products are sold to governmental agencies, independent dealers, and municipalities, with approximately 3,800 employees.