Alamo Group is a small-cap machinery maker trading at 12.1x forward earnings with 17.1% upside to the analyst target and a favorable reward-to-risk of 3.41, but earnings have been uneven, growth is weak, and the stock is in a confirmed downtrend ahead of tomorrow's report.
Thesis pillars
- Attractive Valuation↓Deteriorating
- Analyst Upside With Tight Stop→Stable
- Uneven Earnings Record→Stable
- +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Nov 1, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Mar 2, 2026
Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG) Stock Analysis
Inst Constrain edge
Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $148.49: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Alamo Group manufactures industrial and vegetation management equipment through two divisions—Industrial Equipment (vacuum trucks, street sweepers, excavators, snow removal) and Vegetation Management (tractor mowers, forestry equipment)—operating 27 manufacturing facilities... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $148.49: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 117d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated Nov 2, 2026Recent Developments — Alamo Group, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Alamo Group (ALG) Q3 Earnings and Revenues Lag Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance Nov 2, 2026 negative
- NEWS Alamo Group (NYSE:ALG) Reaches New 12-Month Low - What's Next? - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 29, 2026 negative
- NEWS Alamo Group (ALG) Expected to Release Quarterly Earnings on Monday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 29, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Alamo Group Acquires UK Roadway Maintenance Leader Econ - The Globe and Mail — The Globe and Mail Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Alamo Group: A Sluggish Performer But An Interesting Deal (NYSE:ALG) - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha Oct 28, 2026 neutral
Latest item Nov 2, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:49:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomergovernmental entities and related contractors10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of our revenues is derived from sales to federal, state, provincial and local governmental entities and related contractors'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-19Item 5.02MEDIUMRichard H. Raborn, EVP of the Vegetation Management Division, retiring May 29, 2026. Separation agreement includes base salary continuation of $536,000 over 12 months. Departure not due to any disagreement with company operations, financial reporting, or accounting practices. No successor named.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
Show full disclosure ▾Hide full disclosure ▴
About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.
Not investment advice. TrendMatrix is not a registered investment adviser. Our content is for informational and educational purposes only. Consult your own licensed investment adviser, broker, or tax professional before making any investment decision.
Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.
No paid promotion. TrendMatrix does not accept payment from any issuer, broker, or third party in exchange for coverage of any security.
No fiduciary duty. No fiduciary, advisory, or agency relationship is created between you and TrendMatrix by reading our content or subscribing to our service.
Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $148.49: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $138.51. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $172.97 (+16.5% upside). Prior stop was $138.51. Stop-loss: $138.51.
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.8); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Alamo Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 23.1 (forward 12.1). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
8 analysts rate ALG, with a consensus score of 4.1/5. 4 analysts publish price targets averaging $204.
What does Alamo Group, Inc. do?Alamo Group manufactures industrial and vegetation management equipment through two divisions—Industrial Equipment...
Alamo Group manufactures industrial and vegetation management equipment through two divisions—Industrial Equipment (vacuum trucks, street sweepers, excavators, snow removal) and Vegetation Management (tractor mowers, forestry equipment)—operating 27 manufacturing facilities across North America, Europe, Brazil, and Australia. Products are sold to governmental agencies, independent dealers, and municipalities, with approximately 3,800 employees.