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Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellHigh Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $151.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.

Alamo Group manufactures vegetation management equipment (mowers, tree care) and industrial equipment (vacuum trucks, sweepers, snow removal, excavators) under 40+ brands through ~3,800 employees and 27 global facilities. Revenue comes from sales to government agencies,... Read more

$151.22+20.7% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#7 of 12 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield3.15%
IncomeYield0.85%(5y avg 0.51%)Payout14.83%sustainable
Stop $141.39Target $182.53(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 2.4:1
Analyst target$209.80+38.7%5 analysts
$182.53our TP
$151.22price
$209.80mean
$225

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $151.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Alamo Group, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Attractive valuation
Analyst upside: 21%
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6)
Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7
Consecutive earnings misses (3)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)18.1
P/E (Fwd)12.6
Mkt Cap$1.8B
EV/EBITDA9.5
Profit Mgn6.2%
ROE9.1%
Rev Growth6.7%
Beta1.17
Dividend0.85%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.07bullish
IV40%normal

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.3
Revenue Growth
4.2

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
7.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MDividend: 85.0%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume
3.8
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
30 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $145.76Resistance $180.62

Price Targets

$141
$183
A.Upside+20.7%
A.R:R2.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-05 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $151.22 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 30, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $141.39. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.

What is the ALG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $182.53 (+20.7% upside). Prior stop was $141.39. Stop-loss: $141.39.

What are the risks of investing in ALG?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.6); Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7; Consecutive earnings misses (3).

Is ALG overvalued or undervalued?

Alamo Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.1 (forward 12.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.7/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALG?

8 analysts cover ALG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $210.

What does Alamo Group, Inc. do?Alamo Group manufactures vegetation management equipment (mowers, tree care) and industrial equipment (vacuum trucks,...

Alamo Group manufactures vegetation management equipment (mowers, tree care) and industrial equipment (vacuum trucks, sweepers, snow removal, excavators) under 40+ brands through ~3,800 employees and 27 global facilities. Revenue comes from sales to government agencies, agricultural operators, and contractors via ~600 distributors; foreign operations represent 12% of sales.

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