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Alamo Group, Inc. (ALG) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery

Earnings in 4 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. At $170.62, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Concentration risk — Customer: governmental entities.

Alamo Group manufactures and sells industrial and vegetation management equipment across two divisions: Industrial Equipment (vacuum trucks, street sweepers, excavators, snow removal) and Vegetation Management (mowing, land maintenance). With ~3,800 employees and 27... Read more

$170.62+5.9% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#11 of 12 Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Stop $160.12Target $180.44(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.0:1
Analyst target$207.40+21.6%5 analysts
$180.44our TP
$170.62price
$207.40mean
$225

Sell if holding. At $170.62, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Concentration risk — Customer: governmental entities. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 4d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: governmental entities
Thin upside margin: 5.9%
Earnings in 4 days (event risk)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)19.6
P/E (Fwd)14.2
Mkt Cap$2.0B
EV/EBITDA9.4
Profit Mgn6.5%
ROE9.6%
Rev Growth-3.0%
Beta1.20
Dividend0.76%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV52%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomergovernmental entities
    10-K Item 1A: 'A substantial portion of our revenues is derived from sales to federal, state, provincial and local governmental entities and related contractors'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.0% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
1.8
Declining revenue: -3%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 1.0 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 4d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
40 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $163.67Resistance $180.95

Price Targets

$160
$180
A.Upside+5.8%
A.R:R1.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.0:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (4d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ALG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $170.62, A.R:R 1.0:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Concentration risk — Customer: governmental entities. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $160.12. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ALG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $180.44 (+5.9% upside). Prior stop was $160.12. Stop-loss: $160.12.

What are the risks of investing in ALG?

Concentration risk — Customer: governmental entities; Thin upside margin: 5.9%; Earnings in 4 days (event risk).

Is ALG overvalued or undervalued?

Alamo Group, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.6 (forward 14.2). TrendMatrix value score: 7.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ALG?

8 analysts cover ALG with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $207.

What does Alamo Group, Inc. do?Alamo Group manufactures and sells industrial and vegetation management equipment across two divisions: Industrial...

Alamo Group manufactures and sells industrial and vegetation management equipment across two divisions: Industrial Equipment (vacuum trucks, street sweepers, excavators, snow removal) and Vegetation Management (mowing, land maintenance). With ~3,800 employees and 27 manufacturing facilities, products are sold through independent dealers and directly to contractors and municipalities.

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