Value
8.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.7 |
| P/S | 9.8 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.5 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 5.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.2x
- ▸PEG: 0.18
- ▸Attractively valued
OSK · Why this verdict
Why Oshkosh Corporation (Holding (OSK) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
Two consecutive earnings misses of 18.3% and 2.2% in May and January 2026 indicate that the business is underperforming relative to expectations, possibly reflecting order timing delays or margin pressure in the specialty vehicles segment. Earnings | Earnings beats return in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters with positive surprise above 3%, reversing the recent miss pattern. | →Stable |
| CounterThe company beat estimates twice in Q3 and Q4 2025 with strong surprises of 15.7% and 3.3%, suggesting the recent misses are more likely timing-related than structural. | ||
A forward price-to-earnings of 9.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.17 represent significant undervaluation relative to earnings growth potential for a leading specialty vehicle and equipment manufacturer. Valuation breakdown | Forward price-to-earnings expands toward 12x as earnings normalize and the market re-rates the growth opportunity, implying at least 20% price appreciation. | →Stable |
| CounterHeavy construction machinery companies trade at low multiples by design because their earnings are cyclically exposed to infrastructure spending cycles that can compress rapidly. | ||
A negative news modifier has shifted the position rating downward, reflecting recent news events that the sentiment model identifies as bearish for the near-term investment case. Warnings | News sentiment turns neutral or positive within 3 months, reverting the news modifier to zero as recent headwinds are resolved. | →Stable |
| CounterShort-term news modifiers can be noisy; a positive earnings surprise or large government contract announcement could rapidly reverse the sentiment signal. | ||
Despite the downtrend, MACD is improving, on-balance volume is rising, and RSI sits at 61, suggesting a technical recovery attempt is underway that could resolve into a more favorable entry point. Momentum breakdown | Price rises above the 200-day moving average and sustains that level for 30 consecutive days within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterThe asymmetry ratio of only 0.46 against a 1.5 minimum means the risk-reward remains materially unfavorable even if momentum continues to improve. | ||
Two consecutive earnings misses of 18.3% and 2.2% in May and January 2026 indicate that the business is underperforming relative to expectations, possibly reflecting order timing delays or margin pressure in the specialty vehicles segment.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- Earnings beats return in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters with positive surprise above 3%, reversing the recent miss pattern.
CounterThe company beat estimates twice in Q3 and Q4 2025 with strong surprises of 15.7% and 3.3%, suggesting the recent misses are more likely timing-related than structural.
A forward price-to-earnings of 9.7x and a PEG ratio of 0.17 represent significant undervaluation relative to earnings growth potential for a leading specialty vehicle and equipment manufacturer.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- Forward price-to-earnings expands toward 12x as earnings normalize and the market re-rates the growth opportunity, implying at least 20% price appreciation.
CounterHeavy construction machinery companies trade at low multiples by design because their earnings are cyclically exposed to infrastructure spending cycles that can compress rapidly.
A negative news modifier has shifted the position rating downward, reflecting recent news events that the sentiment model identifies as bearish for the near-term investment case.
→StableWarnings
- Expectation
- News sentiment turns neutral or positive within 3 months, reverting the news modifier to zero as recent headwinds are resolved.
CounterShort-term news modifiers can be noisy; a positive earnings surprise or large government contract announcement could rapidly reverse the sentiment signal.
Despite the downtrend, MACD is improving, on-balance volume is rising, and RSI sits at 61, suggesting a technical recovery attempt is underway that could resolve into a more favorable entry point.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price rises above the 200-day moving average and sustains that level for 30 consecutive days within 12 months.
CounterThe asymmetry ratio of only 0.46 against a 1.5 minimum means the risk-reward remains materially unfavorable even if momentum continues to improve.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Oshkosh Corporation offers deep value at 9.7x forward earnings and a PEG of 0.17, but two consecutive earnings misses, a thin 6.8% upside, an inverted asymmetry ratio, and negative news flow create a hold-not-buy situation at current prices.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.4 |
| ROA | 3.6 |
| Gross margin | 0.0 |
| Op margin | 1.4 |
| Net margin | 2.8 |
| Current ratio | 5.9 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 8.0 |
| Volume | 4.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.4 |
| Price target | 7.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $67,599 (0.001% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
5.4/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 6.9 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 4.1 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
Technical
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.1 |
| support resistance | 4.5 |
| 52w position | 5.9 |
| gap | 5.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.3 |
| days to cover | 6.8 |
| volatility | 3.3 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.2 |
| beta | 6.1 |
| debt equity | 9.0 |
- ▸High IV: 61%
Catalyst
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.3 |
| dividend safety | 6.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Dividend: 160.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Mixed signals. Hold existing position. | News modifier -1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → SELL_IF_HOLDING).
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLD_DEFAULT|L3:NEWS_MOD=-1Passed (7)
- MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:24d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.2<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.8>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.25
Upside
+2.8%
Downside
11.1%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupMomentum Cont — Trend continuation, RSI 62, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The default F-path HOLD fired without any positive-conviction gate triggering — no momentum acceleration, no quality+value crossover, no setup recognition. Highest-clear gate: MOMENTUM:5.8>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.1; weakest: Catalyst at 4.3. The engine's read is one of pattern absence — no directional conviction in either direction at current asymmetry.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.1, Sentiment at 6.6, and Risk (lower is worse) at 6.5; the weakest are Catalyst at 4.3, Quality at 4.4, and Technical at 4.9. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.25 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Low Peg
Trip ifForward earnings estimates decline by more than 20%, pushing forward price-to-earnings above 13x at current price.
- P2Consecutive Earnings Misses
Trip ifEarnings miss occurs in 3 of the next 4 quarters with average negative surprise exceeding 10%.
- P3News Flow Negative Signal
Trip ifNews sentiment score remains below negative 0.5 for more than 90 days without a positive catalyst.
- P4Momentum Recovery Setup
Trip ifPrice drops below $125 (below the current stop-loss of $127.59), extending the downtrend.