Oracle carries a wide economic moat, exceptional return on equity of 53%, and strong analyst upside of 33%, but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.91, and negative free cash flow make this a hold-not-buy situation until momentum recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Growth 21pct→Stable
- Wide Moat High Roe→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis
Oversold Bounce setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $141.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-vendor technologies and components.
Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services spanning cloud applications (Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM, EPM, SCM, NetSuite), cloud infrastructure (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Oracle Database), and hardware, delivered through on-premise, cloud, and hybrid deployment... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $141.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-vendor technologies and components. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 15, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 68d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Oracle Corporation
About Oracle Corporation
Oracle's cloud services revenue climbed to 43% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 37% in fiscal 2024 and 32% in fiscal 2023, as customers continued migrating from on-premise software to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) and Oracle Cloud Applications (OCA). The company invested $9.9 billion in research and development in fiscal 2025, up from $8.9 billion in fiscal 2024, and organizes its business into three segments: cloud and license, hardware, and services.
Oracle earns revenue through cloud subscriptions billed on usage or prepaid-and-decremented terms, on-premise license sales paired with license support contracts that most customers purchase alongside their licenses, and hardware sales such as Oracle Engineered Systems bundled with support agreements. Within cloud services and license support revenue, infrastructure offerings (OCI, Oracle Database, Java, middleware) represented 56% versus applications offerings (Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM, EPM, SCM, NetSuite) at 44% in fiscal 2025. The company competes against Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, all of which Oracle's OCI multicloud services interconnect with, a dynamic that can also pull customers toward competitors' offerings. Oracle depends on third-party suppliers for data-center chips and components to support its buildout.
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Oracle's hardware and cloud infrastructure buildout depends on suppliers for chips and data-center components, and the 10-K discloses that certain technologies and components can only be purchased from a single vendor due to price, quality, technology, or availability constraints, an exposure sharpened by competitive allocation of AI accelerators such as graphics processing units, where Oracle has at times accepted less favorable supplier terms to secure capacity. Oracle also carries long-term data-center lease commitments with third-party providers, exposing the company to contract termination fees if cloud demand growth undershoots its capacity commitments.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Oracle Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Oracle Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Oracle Stock (ORCL) Opinions on OpenAI Missing Growth Targets - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS How Oracle Stock Could Rise To $300 - Forbes — Forbes positive
- NEWS Oracle: The Bounce Is Just The Beginning - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Oracle Earnings Beat Estimates But Stock Falls Late With AI Spending In Focus - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS ORCL Stock Drops Amid Lower-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings Guidance, Unchanged FY27 Sales Outlook - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-07-06T06:50:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliersingle-vendor technologies and components10-K Item 1A: 'there are some technologies and components that can only be purchased from a single vendor due to price, quality, technology, availability or other business constraints'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOWOracle's Board unanimously elected Tomislav Mihaljevic as a director effective May 6, 2026; he was not assigned to any Board committee at this time. No reason cited beyond routine board expansion, and no related-party transactions or family relationships were disclosed.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUMOracle announced Hilary Maxson will join as Chief Financial Officer effective April 6, 2026. Maxson previously served as EVP and Group CFO of Schneider Electric SE from 2020-2026. No departure reason for the prior CFO or successor conflicts were cited.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $141.01 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Concentration risk — Supplier: single-vendor technologies and components. Chart setup: Oversold RSI 15, near Bollinger lower, volume surge. Prior stop was $134.67. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $232.69 (+65.9% upside). Prior stop was $134.67. Stop-loss: $134.67.
Concentration risk — Supplier: single-vendor technologies and components; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Negative momentum.
Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 24.0 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.
49 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $253.
What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services spanning cloud applications (Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM, EPM,...
Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services spanning cloud applications (Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP, HCM, EPM, SCM, NetSuite), cloud infrastructure (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure, Oracle Database), and hardware, delivered through on-premise, cloud, and hybrid deployment models. Cloud services revenue reached 43% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 32% in fiscal 2023, with $9.9 billion invested in research and development in fiscal 2025.