Oracle carries a wide economic moat, exceptional return on equity of 53%, and strong analyst upside of 33%, but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.91, and negative free cash flow make this a hold-not-buy situation until momentum recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Growth 21pct→Stable
- Wide Moat High Roe→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $150.77: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services across three segments — cloud and license, hardware, and services — including Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), Oracle Cloud Applications (OCA), the Oracle Database, and NetSuite. Cloud services revenue grew to 43% of total... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $150.77: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: speculative.
About Oracle Corporation
About Oracle Corporation
Oracle organizes its business into three segments — cloud and license, hardware, and services — and its cloud services revenue rose to 43% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 37% in fiscal 2024 and 32% in fiscal 2023, as customers with legacy license-support contracts migrated to the Oracle Cloud, adding $4.3 billion in annualized cloud services revenue over three years. Within cloud services and license support revenue, infrastructure technologies contributed 56% and applications 44% in fiscal 2025. Oracle invested $9.9 billion in research and development during fiscal 2025.
Oracle earns revenue from subscription-based Oracle Cloud Services (OCI infrastructure and OCA applications billed on consumption or subscription terms), traditional software license sales paired with recurring license-support contracts that substantially all license customers purchase, hardware sales including Oracle Engineered Systems and enterprise servers paired with hardware support contracts, and professional services engagements. Applications offerings span Fusion Cloud ERP, EPM, SCM, HCM, and the NetSuite suite for small and mid-sized businesses, sold across industries including financial services, healthcare, and government. Infrastructure offerings center on the Oracle Database, MySQL, Java, and OCI compute, storage, and networking services, differentiated by architecture that separates cloud control code from customer compute nodes. Oracle also runs a selective and active acquisition program, investing in companies, products, and technologies to expand its customer base and accelerate innovation, in addition to the $9.9 billion the company spent on internal research and development in fiscal 2025.
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Oracle's growth thesis is built on a specific, quantified migration: the 10-K states that customers with annual license support contracts who migrated to the Oracle Cloud contributed $4.3 billion of incremental annualized cloud services revenue over the past three fiscal years, and management describes the company as being in the early stages of a broader shift of its existing on-premise customer base to the cloud. That framing makes the pace of license-support-to-cloud conversion a leading indicator for Oracle's results: cloud services revenue's share of total revenue climbed from 32% to 43% over the same three years, and a slowdown in that conversion rate — rather than a loss of customers outright — would show up first in decelerating cloud services growth.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Oracle Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 9, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Oracle Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Oracle Stock (ORCL) Opinions on OpenAI Missing Growth Targets - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS How Oracle Stock Could Rise To $300 - Forbes — Forbes positive
- NEWS Oracle: The Bounce Is Just The Beginning - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Oracle Earnings Beat Estimates But Stock Falls Late With AI Spending In Focus - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS ORCL Stock Drops Amid Lower-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings Guidance, Unchanged FY27 Sales Outlook - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-08-15T09:37:17Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOWBoard unanimously elected Tomislav Mihaljevic as a director effective May 6, 2026. Not currently named to any board committee. No related-party transactions or family relationships disclosed.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUMHilary Maxson joined Oracle as Chief Financial Officer effective April 6, 2026, previously Group CFO of Schneider Electric (2020-2026). No arrangements or related-party transactions disclosed.SEC filing →
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $150.77: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 75. Prior stop was $139.98. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $227.40 (+51.1% upside). Prior stop was $139.98. Stop-loss: $139.98.
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Below 200-MA, MA slope -11.7%/30d (confirmed downtrend); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 3.9), Negative free cash flow.
Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 26.3 (forward 14.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.5/10. Verdict: Sell.
49 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $247.
What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services across three segments — cloud and license, hardware, and services —...
Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services across three segments — cloud and license, hardware, and services — including Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), Oracle Cloud Applications (OCA), the Oracle Database, and NetSuite. Cloud services revenue grew to 43% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 32% two years earlier, as customers migrated from on-premise license-support contracts to the Oracle Cloud, adding $4.3 billion in annualized cloud revenue over three years.