Oracle carries a wide economic moat, exceptional return on equity of 53%, and strong analyst upside of 33%, but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.91, and negative free cash flow make this a hold-not-buy situation until momentum recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Growth 21pct→Stable
- Wide Moat High Roe→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $158.36: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
Oracle Corporation provides enterprise IT products and services — including Oracle Cloud Applications (OCA), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), Oracle Database, and enterprise hardware — delivered through cloud, on-premise, and hybrid deployment models to businesses, government... Read more
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $158.36: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Passes 5/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Oracle Corporation
About Oracle Corporation
Oracle Corporation operates three businesses — cloud and license, hardware, and services — selling Oracle Cloud Applications (OCA), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), Oracle Database, and enterprise hardware to businesses, government agencies, and educational institutions worldwide. Cloud services revenue climbed to 43% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, up from 37% in fiscal 2024 and 32% in fiscal 2023, as customers with annual license support contracts migrating to the Oracle Cloud added $4.3 billion in annualized cloud services revenue over the past three fiscal years. The company invested $9.9 billion in research and development in fiscal 2025.
Oracle earns revenue from cloud subscriptions (OCA and OCI), on-premise and cloud license sales paired with license support contracts that substantially all license customers also purchase, hardware sales paired with hardware support contracts, and professional services, sold both directly through Oracle's worldwide sales force and indirectly through the Oracle Partner Network. Within cloud services and license support revenue, applications offerings (Oracle Fusion Cloud ERP, EPM, SCM, HCM, and NetSuite) represented 44% of the total in fiscal 2025 versus infrastructure offerings (OCI, Oracle Database, Java, middleware) at 56%, a mix that has shifted toward infrastructure over the prior two fiscal years (46%/54% in fiscal 2024, 47%/53% in fiscal 2023). Oracle Autonomous Database and OCI Dedicated Region extend Oracle's infrastructure into customer data centers via Oracle Exadata Cloud@Customer, and Oracle Autonomous Database is also available on competing hyperscale clouds, including Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure. Growth has also been supported by an active, selective acquisition program that the company expects to continue.
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Oracle's internal revenue mix reveals a cloud transition that is now infrastructure-led rather than applications-led: within cloud services and license support revenue, the infrastructure share (OCI, Oracle Database, Java, middleware) rose from 53% in fiscal 2023 to 56% in fiscal 2025, while the applications share fell from 47% to 44% over the same period. That shift lines up with Oracle's AI Infrastructure push — OCI compute now spans virtual machines to GPU-based offerings for AI model training — and suggests the company's growth is increasingly tied to hyperscale AI/cloud-capacity demand rather than to the enterprise-applications upsell motion (Fusion ERP, HCM, EPM) that historically anchored its cloud strategy.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Oracle Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Oracle Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Oracle Stock (ORCL) Opinions on OpenAI Missing Growth Targets - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS How Oracle Stock Could Rise To $300 - Forbes — Forbes positive
- NEWS Oracle: The Bounce Is Just The Beginning - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Oracle Earnings Beat Estimates But Stock Falls Late With AI Spending In Focus - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS ORCL Stock Drops Amid Lower-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings Guidance, Unchanged FY27 Sales Outlook - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-09-04T15:07:39Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOWBoard unanimously elected Tomislav Mihaljevic as a new director effective immediately (May 6, 2026). No committee assignment yet; standard non-employee director compensation.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUMHilary Maxson joined Oracle as Chief Financial Officer effective April 6, 2026, previously Group CFO of Schneider Electric. New hire, not a departure.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $158.36: Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 61. Prior stop was $146.98. Score 6.2/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $222.62 (+40.9% upside). Prior stop was $146.98. Stop-loss: $146.98.
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Earnings in 6 days (event risk).
Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 25.0 (forward 14.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
49 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $242.
What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle Corporation provides enterprise IT products and services — including Oracle Cloud Applications (OCA), Oracle...
Oracle Corporation provides enterprise IT products and services — including Oracle Cloud Applications (OCA), Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), Oracle Database, and enterprise hardware — delivered through cloud, on-premise, and hybrid deployment models to businesses, government agencies, and educational institutions worldwide. The company operates through three businesses: cloud and license, hardware, and services, and invested $9.9 billion in research and development in fiscal 2025, with cloud services revenue rising to 43% of total revenue that year from 32% in fiscal 2023.