Oracle carries a wide economic moat, exceptional return on equity of 53%, and strong analyst upside of 33%, but a confirmed downtrend with a death cross, elevated put-to-call ratio of 1.91, and negative free cash flow make this a hold-not-buy situation until momentum recovers.
Thesis pillars
- Revenue Growth 21pct→Stable
- Wide Moat High Roe→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) Stock Analysis
Technology · Software - Infrastructure
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $114.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: infrastructure cloud services and license support (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for certain technologies and components.
Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services across cloud, on-premise license and hardware deployment models, organized into three businesses: cloud and license, hardware, and services. Cloud services represented 43% of total revenues in fiscal 2025, up from 37% in fiscal... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $114.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: infrastructure cloud services and license support (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for certain technologies and components. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Oracle Corporation
About Oracle Corporation
Oracle's cloud services revenue climbed to 43% of total revenues in fiscal 2025, up from 37% in fiscal 2024 and 32% in fiscal 2023, as the company invested $9.9 billion in research and development, up from $8.9 billion the prior year. Within cloud services and license support, infrastructure offerings (OCI) generated 56% of that combined revenue base versus 44% for applications offerings (OCA), reflecting Oracle's three-business structure of cloud and license, hardware, and services.
Oracle earns revenue through cloud subscriptions billed on a usage-consumption or term basis, on-premise and cloud licenses paired with renewable license support contracts, and hardware sales paired with support contracts, sold directly through Oracle's worldwide sales force and indirectly through the Oracle Partner Network. Migration from on-premise licenses to the Oracle Cloud has been a multi-year theme: customers with annual license support contracts that migrated to the Oracle Cloud contributed $4.3 billion to the increase in annualized cloud services revenue over the past three fiscal years. Oracle also pursues a multicloud strategy, letting OCI interoperate with competitors' platforms including Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services so customers can combine services across clouds. The company funds this expansion partly through long-term lease commitments with third-party data center providers and significant purchase commitments with chip and infrastructure suppliers to build out data center capacity ahead of anticipated demand.
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Oracle's hardware and cloud infrastructure buildout depends on suppliers of components that, in certain cases, can only be purchased from a single vendor due to price, quality, technology or availability constraints, a risk the 10-K ties directly to geopolitical tension between China and Taiwan. That dependency intersects with an ongoing AI accelerator supply squeeze: Oracle discloses that industry supply capacity for graphics processing units is competitive enough that it has at times had to accept less favorable terms with suppliers to secure capacity, increasing excess-and-obsolescence risk on the hardware it commits to purchase ahead of confirmed customer demand.
See also: Technology · Software - Infrastructure
From Oracle Corporation's most recent 10-K filing, extracted July 19, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Oracle Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Oracle Stock (ORCL) Opinions on OpenAI Missing Growth Targets - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS How Oracle Stock Could Rise To $300 - Forbes — Forbes positive
- NEWS Oracle: The Bounce Is Just The Beginning - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha positive
- NEWS Oracle Earnings Beat Estimates But Stock Falls Late With AI Spending In Focus - Investor's Business Daily — Investor's Business Daily positive
- NEWS ORCL Stock Drops Amid Lower-Than-Expected Q1 Earnings Guidance, Unchanged FY27 Sales Outlook - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:05Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMProductcloud services43%10-K Item 1: 'our cloud services revenues represented 43%, 37% and 32% of our total revenues during fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively'
- HIGHProductinfrastructure cloud services and license support56%10-K Item 1: 'Our infrastructure cloud services and license support revenues represented 56%, 54% and 53% of our total cloud services and license support revenues during fiscal 2025, 2024 and 2023, respectively.'
- HIGHSuppliersingle vendor for certain technologies and components10-K Item 1A: 'there are some technologies and components that can only be purchased from a single vendor due to price, quality, technology, availability or other business constraints'
Material Events(8-K, last 90d)
- 2026-05-12Item 5.02LOWBoard unanimously elected Tomislav Mihaljevic as a director effective immediately (May 6, 2026); not currently named to any board committee. Standard non-employee director RSU and cash compensation apply.SEC filing →
- 2026-04-06Item 5.02MEDIUMHilary Maxson joined Oracle as Chief Financial Officer effective April 6, 2026. She previously served as EVP and Group CFO of Schneider Electric SE from 2020 to April 2026.SEC filing →
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $114.85 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Product: infrastructure cloud services and license support (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for certain technologies and components. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $111.31. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $228.29 (+98.5% upside). Prior stop was $111.31. Stop-loss: $111.31.
Concentration risk — Product: infrastructure cloud services and license support (56.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: single vendor for certain technologies and components; Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5.
Oracle Corporation trades at a P/E of 19.7 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.6/10. Verdict: Sell.
49 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $248.
What does Oracle Corporation do?Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services across cloud, on-premise license and hardware deployment models,...
Oracle provides enterprise IT products and services across cloud, on-premise license and hardware deployment models, organized into three businesses: cloud and license, hardware, and services. Cloud services represented 43% of total revenues in fiscal 2025, up from 37% in fiscal 2024, while the company invested $9.9 billion in research and development, up from $8.9 billion a year earlier.