Northern Oil and Gas offers an exceptional valuation at a forward P/E of 4.8x and PEG of 0.03, with four consecutive earnings beats, but its quality score of 2.8 falls well below the minimum threshold, revenue is declining 7%, and 20% short interest reflects high professional skepticism.
Thesis pillars
- Extreme Valuation Discount→Stable
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Below Quality Floor Metrics→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Stock Analysis
Falling Knife setup · Inst Constrain edge
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.95: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 6.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum.
Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company holding minority working interests in oil and gas wells across the Williston, Permian, Appalachian, and Uinta Basins, with 11,702 gross producing wells alongside more than 100 operator partners. Production grew 6% to 140,064 Boe... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.95: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 6.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 33d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
About Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
Northern Oil and Gas averaged 140,064 Boe per day in Q4 2025, up 6% from the prior-year quarter, across 11,702 gross producing wells spanning 301,797 net acres in four U.S. basins. Proved reserves totaled 384,068 MBoe at December 31, 2025, of which 48% was oil and 74% was proved developed. The Permian Basin generated 42% of Q4 production, Williston 30%, Appalachian 21%, and Uinta 7%.
Northern Oil and Gas earns revenue by holding non-operated minority working interests — averaging 10.2% per gross well — alongside more than 100 experienced operators, which handle all drilling, completion, and production activities as well as marketing and selling oil and gas output at prevailing spot prices. No single operator accounted for more than 11% of Q4 2025 oil and natural gas sales. Oil production is priced at a discount to NYMEX reflecting transportation costs from wellhead to refinery, while natural gas is priced at or near first-of-month index prices or daily spot, subject to differential basis risk. The company targets hedging 65% or more of its anticipated next 18-month production. Capex is flexible: the company can elect on a well-by-well basis whether to participate, avoiding minimum drilling obligations that burden many operators.
Show full overview
The Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), which transports crude oil from the Williston Basin to market, remained subject to ongoing litigation at year-end 2025; the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers completed its final environmental impact statement in December 2025 and must determine whether to grant DAPL an easement to cross the Missouri River or order a shutdown. A curtailment or closure would directly affect the Williston Basin, which contributed 30% of Q4 2025 production. The company also recorded a $702.7 million non-cash full cost ceiling impairment in 2025 driven by trailing-average commodity prices — a recurring risk under full-cost accounting when prices decline.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Is It Too Late to Buy Northern Oil & Gas Inc (NOG) After 3.4% Ra - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS Northern Oil and Gas to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store? - Zacks Investment Research — Zacks Investment Research neutral
- NEWS Northern Oil and Gas to Report Q1 Earnings: What's in Store? - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance neutral
- NEWS Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) Q1 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Northern Oil and Gas Inc. (NOG) Stock Falls on Q1 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
Generated 2026-07-06T06:50:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicPermian Basin42%10-K Item 1: '42% of our production was from the Permian Basin'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $17.95: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.3/10 and A.R:R 6.9:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality; Negative price momentum. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 31, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $16.87. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $28.61 (+59.4% upside). Prior stop was $16.87. Stop-loss: $16.87.
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 4.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts cover NOG with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $33.
What does Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. do?Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company holding minority working interests in oil and gas wells across the...
Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company holding minority working interests in oil and gas wells across the Williston, Permian, Appalachian, and Uinta Basins, with 11,702 gross producing wells alongside more than 100 operator partners. Production grew 6% to 140,064 Boe per day in Q4 2025.