Northern Oil and Gas offers an exceptional valuation at a forward P/E of 4.8x and PEG of 0.03, with four consecutive earnings beats, but its quality score of 2.8 falls well below the minimum threshold, revenue is declining 7%, and 20% short interest reflects high professional skepticism.
Thesis pillars
- Extreme Valuation Discount↑Improving
- Four Quarter Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Below Quality Floor Metrics→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 26, 2026· older than 90 days
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.27: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.43; Below-average business quality.
Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company holding minority working interests in oil and gas wells across the Williston, Permian, Appalachian, and Uinta Basins, with 11,702 gross producing wells alongside more than 100 operator partners. Production grew 6% to 140,064 Boe... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.27: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.43; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 0d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
About Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
About Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
Northern Oil and Gas averaged 140,064 Boe per day in Q4 2025, up 6% from the prior-year quarter, across 11,702 gross producing wells spanning 301,797 net acres in four U.S. basins. Proved reserves totaled 384,068 MBoe at December 31, 2025, of which 48% was oil and 74% was proved developed. The Permian Basin generated 42% of Q4 production, Williston 30%, Appalachian 21%, and Uinta 7%.
Northern Oil and Gas earns revenue by holding non-operated minority working interests — averaging 10.2% per gross well — alongside more than 100 experienced operators, which handle all drilling, completion, and production activities as well as marketing and selling oil and gas output at prevailing spot prices. No single operator accounted for more than 11% of Q4 2025 oil and natural gas sales. Oil production is priced at a discount to NYMEX reflecting transportation costs from wellhead to refinery, while natural gas is priced at or near first-of-month index prices or daily spot, subject to differential basis risk. The company targets hedging 65% or more of its anticipated next 18-month production. Capex is flexible: the company can elect on a well-by-well basis whether to participate, avoiding minimum drilling obligations that burden many operators.
Show full overview
The Dakota Access Pipeline (DAPL), which transports crude oil from the Williston Basin to market, remained subject to ongoing litigation at year-end 2025; the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers completed its final environmental impact statement in December 2025 and must determine whether to grant DAPL an easement to cross the Missouri River or order a shutdown. A curtailment or closure would directly affect the Williston Basin, which contributed 30% of Q4 2025 production. The company also recorded a $702.7 million non-cash full cost ceiling impairment in 2025 driven by trailing-average commodity prices — a recurring risk under full-cost accounting when prices decline.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
From Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated Nov 5, 2026Recent Developments — Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS ICU Holdings Ltd Increases Voting Stake in Nostrum Oil & Gas PLC — fiscal.ai Nov 5, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend — fiscal.ai Nov 3, 2026 positive
- NEWS Northern Oil and Gas Drops 5.3% Amid Sector-Wide Selling - AlphaStreet — AlphaStreet Nov 2, 2026 negative
- NEWS Raymond James raises Northern Oil and Gas price target on strip - Investing.com — Investing.com Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Raymond James raises Northern Oil and Gas price target on strip - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria Oct 28, 2026 positive
Latest item Nov 5, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-05T11:39:30Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicPermian Basin42%10-K Item 1: '42% of our production was from the Permian Basin'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Volatile — 5.3% daily ATR makes tight stops impractical. Position-size conservatively.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $22.27: Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.0/10 and A.R:R 1.8:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 23%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.43; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $21.55. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $26.58 (+19.4% upside). Prior stop was $21.55. Stop-loss: $21.55.
Risk below floor (2.9 < 3.0).
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 4.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
14 analysts rate NOG, with a consensus score of 3.7/5. 9 analysts publish price targets averaging $31.
What does Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. do?Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company holding minority working interests in oil and gas wells across the...
Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company holding minority working interests in oil and gas wells across the Williston, Permian, Appalachian, and Uinta Basins, with 11,702 gross producing wells alongside more than 100 operator partners. Production grew 6% to 140,064 Boe per day in Q4 2025.