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Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas E&P

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.75: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality.

Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company with participating interests in oil and natural gas properties across the Williston Basin (30% of Q4 2025 production), Permian Basin (42%), Appalachian Basin (21%), and Uinta Basin (7%). It participates in wells operated by 100+... Read more

$24.75+26.9% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#23 of 37 Oil & Gas E&P
QualityF-score5 / 9FCF yield-0.51%
IncomeYield7.27%Payout461.54%at-risk
Stop $23.02Target $31.41(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$36.10+45.9%10 analysts
$31.41our TP
$24.75price
$36.10mean
$45

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.75: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Val9.6Qual2.8Grw5.3Mom5.4Sent7.4Ins5.0Peer2.7Tech6.4Risk5.15.6OVERALL

Recent Developments — Northern Oil and Gas, Inc.

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.21% of cap)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)—
P/E (Fwd)6.3
Mkt Cap$2.6B
EV/EBITDA3.5
Profit Mgn-32.4%
ROE-29.8%
Rev Growth-7.1%
Beta0.77
Dividend7.27%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.40bullish
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMhedge_coveragecommodity hedge target 65%+ of next 18 months65%
    10-K Item 1: 'We have a rolling target of hedging 65% or more of our anticipated next 18-month production.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.7
Growth Rank
1.1
Value Rank
9.2

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Operating Margin
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Current Ratio
2.1
Roa
2.9
Rule Of 40
3.0
Moat
4.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Gross Margin
10.0
Cash-burning: FCF -1% of revenueNo competitive moatRule of 40: -8 (fail)Quality concerns
GatesMomentum 5.4<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Momentum 5.4>=4.5A.R:R 3.4 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
32 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↑ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $22.96Resistance $28.75

Price Targets

$23
$31
A.Upside+26.9%
A.R:R3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.21% of cap)

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NOG stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $24.75: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10 and A.R:R 3.4:1 is above the 1.5:1 BUY gate. Specifically: High short interest: 19%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $23.02. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NOG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $31.41 (+26.9% upside). Prior stop was $23.02. Stop-loss: $23.02.

What are the risks of investing in NOG?

Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): High leverage (D/E 5.5), Material insider selling (8 sells, 0.21% of cap).

Is NOG overvalued or undervalued?

Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NOG?

14 analysts cover NOG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $36.

What does Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. do?Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company with participating interests in oil and natural gas properties...

Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company with participating interests in oil and natural gas properties across the Williston Basin (30% of Q4 2025 production), Permian Basin (42%), Appalachian Basin (21%), and Uinta Basin (7%). It participates in wells operated by 100+ partners with no single operator exceeding 11% of oil and gas sales; revenue derives from its proportionate share of production sold by operators at market prices. NOG targets hedging 65%+ of anticipated next 18-month production.

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