Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NOG) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.57: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality.
Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company with working interests in 11,702 gross producing wells across the Williston, Permian, Appalachian, and Uinta Basins, producing 140,064 BOE/day in Q4 2025. Revenue comes from oil and gas sales marketed by 100+ operating partners;... Read more
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.57: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 5/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 98d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicPermian Basin42%10-K Item 1: '42% of our production was from the Permian Basin, 30% was from the Williston Basin, 21% was from the Appalachian Basin and 7% was from the Uinta Basin'
- MEDIUMhedge_coveragenext 18-month production hedge target65%10-K Item 1: 'We have a rolling target of hedging 65% or more of our anticipated next 18-month production.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $27.57: Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.6/10. Specifically: High short interest: 20%; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $25.70. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $31.03 (+12.3% upside). Prior stop was $25.70. Stop-loss: $25.70.
Quality below floor (3.2 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Revenue declining (-25.3% YoY), High leverage (D/E 5.9).
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
15 analysts cover NOG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $36.
What does Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. do?Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company with working interests in 11,702 gross producing wells across the...
Northern Oil and Gas is a non-operator E&P company with working interests in 11,702 gross producing wells across the Williston, Permian, Appalachian, and Uinta Basins, producing 140,064 BOE/day in Q4 2025. Revenue comes from oil and gas sales marketed by 100+ operating partners; no single operator represented more than 11% of Q4 2025 sales.