Nike has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of 40%, while trading 21% below analyst consensus targets, but concentrated supply chain exposure in Vietnam and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.46 present material risks heading into near-term earnings.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Supply Chain Vietnam Concentration→Stable
- Analyst Upside Potential→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Sell if holding. At $44.00, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear factories (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%).
Nike designs, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands through NIKE Direct retail stores and digital platforms and global wholesale accounts. The company is the largest seller of athletic footwear and... Read more
Sell if holding. At $44.00, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear factories (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/10 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(5), earnings proximity 88d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — Nike, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Nike Stock (NKE) Hits 52-Week Low as CFO Departs and Turnaround Drags On - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Stock Falls on Q4 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - TradingView — TradingView negative
Generated 2026-07-06T06:00:35Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States43%10-K Item 1: 'NIKE Brand and Converse sales in the United States accounted for approximately 43% of total revenues'
- HIGHSupplierVietnam footwear factories51%10-K Item 1: 'factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China manufactured approximately 51%, 28% and 17% of total NIKE Brand footwear, respectively'
- MEDIUMSupplierIndonesia footwear factories28%10-K Item 1: 'factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China manufactured approximately 51%, 28% and 17% of total NIKE Brand footwear, respectively'
- LOWSupplierChina footwear factories17%10-K Item 1: 'factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China manufactured approximately 51%, 28% and 17% of total NIKE Brand footwear, respectively'
- HIGHSuppliertop-4 footwear contract manufacturers59%10-K Item 1: 'four footwear contract manufacturers each accounted for greater than 10% of footwear production and in the aggregate accounted for approximately 59% of NIKE Brand footwear production'
- MEDIUMSupplierVietnam apparel factories31%10-K Item 1: 'factories in Vietnam, China and Cambodia manufactured approximately 31%, 15% and 15% ... of total NIKE Brand apparel, respectively'
- LOWSupplierChina apparel factories15%10-K Item 1: 'factories in Vietnam, China and Cambodia manufactured approximately 31%, 15% and 15% ... of total NIKE Brand apparel, respectively'
- LOWSupplierCambodia apparel factories15%10-K Item 1: 'factories in Vietnam, China and Cambodia manufactured approximately 31%, 15% and 15% ... of total NIKE Brand apparel, respectively'
- HIGHSuppliertop-5 apparel contract manufacturers51%10-K Item 1: 'the top five contract manufacturers in the aggregate accounted for approximately 51% of NIKE Brand apparel production'
- HIGHcounterpartySojitz Corporation of America10-K Item 1: 'Sojitz Corporation of America...the sole owner of our redeemable preferred stock, has performed import-export financing services for us'
- MEDIUMCustomerthree largest United States customers25%10-K Item 1: 'our three largest United States customers accounted for approximately 25% of sales in the United States'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $44.00, A.R:R 0.9:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear factories (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $41.15. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $47.71 (+8.2% upside). Prior stop was $41.15. Stop-loss: $41.15.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear factories (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Thin upside margin: 8.2%.
Nike, Inc. trades at a P/E of 21.0 (forward 18.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
45 analysts cover NKE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $52.
What does Nike, Inc. do?Nike designs, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the NIKE, Jordan, and...
Nike designs, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands through NIKE Direct retail stores and digital platforms and global wholesale accounts. The company is the largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel in the world, with approximately 43% of fiscal 2025 revenues from the United States and 57% internationally; approximately 77,800 employees supported operations at May 31, 2025.