Nike has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of 40%, while trading 21% below analyst consensus targets, but concentrated supply chain exposure in Vietnam and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.46 present material risks heading into near-term earnings.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Supply Chain Vietnam Concentration↑Improving
- Analyst Upside Potential↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis
Range Bound setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $38.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: top four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%).
NIKE, Inc. designs, develops, and markets athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands, selling through NIKE Direct retail and digital channels and wholesale accounts in nearly all countries. The company is the world's... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $38.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: top four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Nike, Inc.
About Nike, Inc.
NIKE sells athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands through NIKE Direct retail and digital channels plus wholesale accounts worldwide, operating 376 U.S. retail stores and 658 stores outside the U.S. as of fiscal 2025. U.S. sales accounted for approximately 43% of total revenue in fiscal 2025, versus 57% from international markets, and the company's three largest U.S. customers represented about 25% of U.S. sales that year.
NIKE outsources nearly all footwear and apparel production to independent contract manufacturers rather than owning factories, working with 15 footwear and 67 apparel contract manufacturers operating 97 footwear factories in 11 countries and 303 apparel factories in 34 countries as of fiscal 2025. That manufacturing base is geographically concentrated: Vietnam alone produced 51% of NIKE Brand footwear and 31% of NIKE Brand apparel in fiscal 2025, with China and Indonesia (footwear) and China and Cambodia (apparel) rounding out the top three countries. Supplier concentration compounds the geographic concentration — four footwear contract manufacturers each exceeded 10% of footwear production and together accounted for roughly 59% of the total, while the top five apparel contract manufacturers accounted for about 51% of apparel production. NIKE also depends on 184 strategic Tier 2 materials suppliers for principal inputs such as rubber, foam cushioning, and technical textiles, most of which are sourced by contract manufacturers within their own countries of production.
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NIKE's single biggest disclosed structural risk sits not in its brand portfolio but in its supply chain's geographic footprint: Vietnam alone accounts for roughly half of NIKE Brand footwear production, and just four contract manufacturers together produce about 59% of that footwear, concentrations far above the 10% threshold NIKE itself flags for individual manufacturers. The 10-K acknowledges that new or increased U.S. tariffs and trade protectionism have already raised the cost of NIKE's products and that further measures could materially affect sales and profitability, while conceding that developing alternative sourcing, if a country-level disruption occurred, would likely be less cost-effective and could have an ongoing adverse impact on margins rather than a purely short-term one.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
From Nike, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 23, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-04Recent Developments — Nike, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Nike Stock (NKE) Hits 52-Week Low as CFO Departs and Turnaround Drags On - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Stock Falls on Q4 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - TradingView — TradingView negative
Generated 2026-09-04T13:32:51Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States43%10-K Item 1: 'NIKE Brand and Converse sales in the United States accounted for approximately 43% of total revenues'
- HIGHSupplierVietnam footwear manufacturing51%10-K Item 1: 'factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China manufactured approximately 51%, 28% and 17% of total NIKE Brand footwear, respectively.'
- HIGHSuppliertop four footwear contract manufacturers59%10-K Item 1: 'four footwear contract manufacturers each accounted for greater than 10% of footwear production and in the aggregate accounted for approximately 59% of NIKE Brand footwear production'
- HIGHSuppliertop five apparel contract manufacturers51%10-K Item 1: 'the top five contract manufacturers in the aggregate accounted for approximately 51% of NIKE Brand apparel production'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 4.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $38.20 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: top four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%). Chart setup: RSI 42 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $36.64. Score 5.1/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.42 (+19.7% upside). Prior stop was $36.64. Stop-loss: $36.64.
Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: top four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Nike, Inc. trades at a P/E of 18.2 (forward 16.9). TrendMatrix value score: 6.8/10. Verdict: Sell.
46 analysts cover NKE with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $50.
What does Nike, Inc. do?NIKE, Inc. designs, develops, and markets athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the NIKE,...
NIKE, Inc. designs, develops, and markets athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands, selling through NIKE Direct retail and digital channels and wholesale accounts in nearly all countries. The company is the world's largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel, with U.S. sales accounting for approximately 43% of fiscal 2025 revenue; nearly all footwear and apparel is manufactured by independent contractors outside the United States, with Vietnam alone producing about 51% of NIKE Brand footwear.