Nike has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of 40%, while trading 21% below analyst consensus targets, but concentrated supply chain exposure in Vietnam and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.46 present material risks heading into near-term earnings.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Supply Chain Vietnam Concentration→Stable
- Analyst Upside Potential↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%).
Nike designs, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands through NIKE Direct retail and digital channels and wholesale accounts worldwide. Non-U.S. sales generated approximately 57% of fiscal 2025 revenue, and... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Nike, Inc.
About Nike, Inc.
NIKE's footwear, apparel, and equipment business runs through the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands, with United States sales accounting for approximately 43% of total revenues in fiscal 2025 and international markets contributing the remaining 57%. The company operates 376 retail stores in the U.S. and 658 outside it, alongside NIKE Direct digital platforms and wholesale accounts spanning nearly every country, employing about 77,800 people worldwide.
NIKE earns revenue through NIKE Direct -- its owned retail stores and digital platforms -- and wholesale accounts made up of independent distributors, licensees, and sales representatives across nearly every country. Manufacturing is fully outsourced: contract manufacturers outside the United States operate 97 footwear factories across 11 countries, with Vietnam, Indonesia, and China producing roughly 51%, 28%, and 17% of NIKE Brand footwear, respectively, and four footwear manufacturers each exceeding 10% of production. Apparel runs through 303 factories in 34 countries, sourced from 184 strategic Tier 2 material suppliers. No single wholesale customer reached 10% of consolidated net revenues in fiscal 2025, though the three largest U.S. customers accounted for about 25% of U.S. sales. The company competes against adidas, Under Armour, lululemon athletica, and other diversified apparel and footwear makers, along with private-label brands sold by major retailers.
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NIKE's results hinge on discretionary consumer spending: the 10-K states that declines in consumer spending have in the past reduced demand, increased inventories, and lowered gross margins, and that financially unstable wholesale retailers raise the risk of order cancellations and bad debt. That exposure compounds with manufacturing geography -- Vietnam alone produced approximately 51% of NIKE Brand footwear in fiscal 2025, so a disruption specific to Vietnamese contract manufacturing would weigh on supply before alternate sourcing could scale, a risk the company frames as a multi-year unwind rather than a near-term swap.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
From Nike, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted August 2, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-08-15Recent Developments — Nike, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Nike Stock (NKE) Hits 52-Week Low as CFO Departs and Turnaround Drags On - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Stock Falls on Q4 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - TradingView — TradingView negative
Generated 2026-08-15T10:47:36Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. sales57%10-K Item 1: 'non-U.S. NIKE Brand and Converse sales accounted for approximately 57% of total revenues, compared to 58% and 57% for fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2023, respectively'
- HIGHSupplierfour footwear contract manufacturers59%10-K Item 1: 'four footwear contract manufacturers each accounted for greater than 10% of footwear production and in the aggregate accounted for approximately 59% of NIKE Brand footwear production'
- HIGHSuppliertop five apparel contract manufacturers51%10-K Item 1: 'the top five contract manufacturers in the aggregate accounted for approximately 51% of NIKE Brand apparel production'
- MEDIUMCustomerthree largest United States customers25%10-K Item 1: 'During fiscal 2025, our three largest United States customers accounted for approximately 25% of sales in the United States.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $40.80, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Target $46.61 (+14.2%), stop $39.24 (−4.0%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $46.61 (+14.4% upside). Target $46.61 (+14.2%), stop $39.24 (−4.0%), A.R:R 2.6:1. Stop-loss: $39.24.
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Weak overall score: 4.9/10.
Nike, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.3 (forward 18.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Hold.
46 analysts cover NKE with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $51.
What does Nike, Inc. do?Nike designs, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands...
Nike designs, markets, and sells athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands through NIKE Direct retail and digital channels and wholesale accounts worldwide. Non-U.S. sales generated approximately 57% of fiscal 2025 revenue, and footwear manufacturing is concentrated in Vietnam, which produced about 51% of NIKE Brand footwear, with four contract manufacturers accounting for roughly 59% of that production.