Nike has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of 40%, while trading 21% below analyst consensus targets, but concentrated supply chain exposure in Vietnam and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.46 present material risks heading into near-term earnings.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Supply Chain Vietnam Concentration→Stable
- Analyst Upside Potential↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $41.57 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (51.0%).
Nike designs, develops and markets athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories worldwide under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands, selling through NIKE Direct (owned stores and digital) and wholesale distributors, licensees and sales representatives. The United... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $41.57 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (51.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 66d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-26Recent Developments — Nike, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Nike Stock (NKE) Hits 52-Week Low as CFO Departs and Turnaround Drags On - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Stock Falls on Q4 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - TradingView — TradingView negative
Generated 2026-07-26T08:02:04Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMGeographicUnited States43%10-K Item 1: 'For fiscal 2025, NIKE Brand and Converse sales in the United States accounted for approximately 43% of total revenues'
- MEDIUMCustomerthree largest United States customers25%10-K Item 1: 'During fiscal 2025, our three largest United States customers accounted for approximately 25% of sales in the United States.'
- LOWCustomerthree largest customers outside the United States16%10-K Item 1: 'NIKE's three largest customers outside of the United States accounted for approximately 16% of total non-U.S. sales'
- LOWSupplierlargest footwear factory11%10-K Item 1: 'The largest single finished goods footwear factory accounted for approximately 11% of total fiscal 2025 NIKE Brand footwear production.'
- HIGHSuppliertop four footwear contract manufacturers59%10-K Item 1: 'four footwear contract manufacturers each accounted for greater than 10% of footwear production and in the aggregate accounted for approximately 59% of NIKE Brand footwear production'
- HIGHGeographicVietnam51%10-K Item 1: 'factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China manufactured approximately 51%, 28% and 17% of total NIKE Brand footwear, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $41.57 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: top four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (51.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $39.00. Score 5.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $47.03 (+12.8% upside). Prior stop was $39.00. Stop-loss: $39.00.
Concentration risk — Supplier: top four footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (51.0%); Earnings estimates trending DOWN.
Nike, Inc. trades at a P/E of 19.9 (forward 18.1). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Sell.
45 analysts cover NKE with a consensus score of 3.6/5. Average price target: $51.
What does Nike, Inc. do?Nike designs, develops and markets athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories worldwide under the NIKE,...
Nike designs, develops and markets athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories worldwide under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands, selling through NIKE Direct (owned stores and digital) and wholesale distributors, licensees and sales representatives. The United States generated approximately 43% of total revenues in fiscal 2025, with the remaining 57% from international markets, and nearly all footwear and apparel is manufactured by independent contractors outside the United States, with no single customer accounting for 10% or more of consolidated revenues.