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Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $44.14: Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear production (51.0%).

Nike is the largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel in the world, designing and marketing products under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands sold through NIKE Direct and wholesale channels globally. In fiscal 2025, US sales accounted for ~43% of revenues, with the top... Read more

$44.14+27.2% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#7 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield2.09%
IncomeYield3.87%(5y avg 1.54%)Payout106.58%at-risk
Stop $41.99Target $56.19(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 4.2:1
Analyst target$61.08+38.4%33 analysts
$56.19our TP
$44.14price
$61.08mean
$23
$120

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $44.14: Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear production (51.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity 36d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Nike, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:56:22Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Analyst upside: 27%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear production (51.0%)
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)27.9
P/E (Fwd)23.2
Mkt Cap$62.8B
EV/EBITDA17.1
Profit Mgn4.8%
ROE16.0%
Rev Growth0.1%
Beta1.12
Dividend3.87%
Rating analysts45

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.92neutral
IV52%elevated
Max Pain$24-45.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliertop-4 footwear contract manufacturers59%
    10-K Item 1: 'four footwear contract manufacturers each accounted for greater than 10% of footwear production and in the aggregate accounted for approximately 59% of NIKE Brand footwear production.'
  • HIGHGeographicVietnam footwear production51%
    10-K Item 1: 'factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China manufactured approximately 51%, 28% and 17% of total NIKE Brand footwear, respectively.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-05Item 2.05MEDIUM
    NIKE management approved organizational change plan to reduce costs and invest for growth; expected pre-tax charges of approximately $300M for the nine months ended February 28, 2026, primarily employee severance, substantially all in Q3 FY2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.5

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.2
Support Resistance
3.5
Bollinger
3.6

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.4
Value Rank
3.8
Quality Rank
4.3
GatesMomentum 5.1<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)Death cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 5.1>=4.5A.R:R 4.2 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY 36d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Moderate
RSI
49 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $41.35Resistance $45.75

Price Targets

$42
$56
A.Upside+27.3%
A.R:R4.2:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Analyst Consensus

Analysts45
Consensus3.7/5
Avg Target$61

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (36d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NKE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Multiple concerning factors at $44.14: Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear production (51.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 49. Prior stop was $41.99. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the NKE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $56.19 (+27.2% upside). Prior stop was $41.99. Stop-loss: $41.99.

What are the risks of investing in NKE?

Concentration risk — Supplier: top-4 footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear production (51.0%); V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).

Is NKE overvalued or undervalued?

Nike, Inc. trades at a P/E of 27.9 (forward 23.2). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NKE?

45 analysts cover NKE with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $61.

What does Nike, Inc. do?Nike is the largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel in the world, designing and marketing products under the...

Nike is the largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel in the world, designing and marketing products under the NIKE, Jordan, and Converse brands sold through NIKE Direct and wholesale channels globally. In fiscal 2025, US sales accounted for ~43% of revenues, with the top 3 US customers representing ~25% of US sales. Nearly all footwear and apparel is manufactured by independent contractors, with Vietnam (51%), Indonesia (28%), and China (17%) producing NIKE Brand footwear.

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