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Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $44.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: independent contractors outside the United States; Weak overall score: 4.6/10.

Nike designs, develops and sells athletic footwear, apparel and equipment globally under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands; it is the largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel in the world. Products are sold through NIKE Direct (retail stores and digital) and wholesale... Read more

$44.37+28.1% A.UpsideScore 4.6/10#6 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
Stop $42.08Target $56.75(analyst − 8%)A.R:R 5.6:1
Analyst target$61.68+39.0%33 analysts
$56.75our TP
$44.37price
$61.68mean
$23
$120

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $44.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: independent contractors outside the United States; Weak overall score: 4.6/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 56d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Analyst upside: 28%
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: independent contractors outside the United States
Weak overall score: 4.6/10
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)29.2
P/E (Fwd)24.0
Mkt Cap$65.7B
EV/EBITDA17.8
Profit Mgn4.8%
ROE16.0%
Rev Growth0.1%
Beta1.32
Dividend3.69%
Rating analysts43

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9

Options Flow

P/C0.87neutral
IV43%normal
Max Pain$25-43.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierindependent contractors outside the United States
    10-K Item 1A: 'A majority of our products are manufactured and sold outside of the United States'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-09Item 1.02MEDIUM
    Nike terminated its prior revolving credit facility and entered a new 364-Day Credit Agreement ($1B facility with Bank of America as agent) on March 6, 2026. Termination of the prior material credit agreement upon refinancing.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-03-05Item 2.05MEDIUM
    Management approved organizational changes on February 27, 2026 expected to result in ~$300M pre-tax charges for the 9 months ended February 28, 2026, primarily employee severance costs, substantially all recognized in Q3 fiscal 2026.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
2.5

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Rsi
3.8
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
1.4
Value Rank
3.8
Quality Rank
4.3
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.6 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 56d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $42.09Resistance $46.97

Price Targets

$42
$57
A.Upside+27.9%
A.R:R5.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-06-25 (56d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NKE stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $44.37 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Supplier: independent contractors outside the United States; Weak overall score: 4.6/10. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $42.08. Score 4.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NKE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $56.75 (+28.1% upside). Prior stop was $42.08. Stop-loss: $42.08.

What are the risks of investing in NKE?

Concentration risk — Supplier: independent contractors outside the United States; Weak overall score: 4.6/10; Weak growth.

Is NKE overvalued or undervalued?

Nike, Inc. trades at a P/E of 29.2 (forward 24.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about NKE?

43 analysts cover NKE with a consensus score of 3.8/5. Average price target: $62.

What does Nike, Inc. do?Nike designs, develops and sells athletic footwear, apparel and equipment globally under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse...

Nike designs, develops and sells athletic footwear, apparel and equipment globally under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands; it is the largest seller of athletic footwear and apparel in the world. Products are sold through NIKE Direct (retail stores and digital) and wholesale accounts. Nearly all products are manufactured by independent contractors outside the United States.

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