Nike has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of 40%, while trading 21% below analyst consensus targets, but concentrated supply chain exposure in Vietnam and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.46 present material risks heading into near-term earnings.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Supply Chain Vietnam Concentration↑Improving
- Analyst Upside Potential↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%).
Nike designs, develops, and markets athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment under the Nike, Jordan, and Converse brands, selling through Nike-owned retail and digital channels (Nike Direct) and wholesale accounts worldwide. Nearly all footwear and apparel is manufactured by... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 6d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
About Nike, Inc.
About Nike, Inc.
NIKE sells athletic footwear, apparel and equipment under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands through NIKE Direct (owned retail stores and digital platforms) and wholesale accounts in nearly every country. Non-U.S. sales accounted for approximately 57% of NIKE Brand and Converse revenue in fiscal 2025, with the remaining 43% from the United States, where the company operates 376 retail stores and eight significant distribution centers, versus 658 stores across more than 40 countries internationally.
NIKE earns revenue by selling to wholesale accounts -- independent distributors, licensees and sales representatives -- and through NIKE Direct, comprising company-owned retail stores and digital commerce platforms in over 40 countries. Nearly all footwear and apparel is produced by independent contract manufacturers outside the United States, which in turn source principal materials such as rubber, leather, textiles and polyurethane films from 184 strategic Tier 2 suppliers; NIKE's own Air Manufacturing Innovation subsidiary supplies Air-Sole cushioning components from facilities in Oregon, Vietnam and Missouri. The company uses a futures ordering program that lets wholesale customers place orders five to six months ahead of delivery, helping plan production, though these advance orders can be canceled and are not always indicative of eventual revenue. NIKE competes against adidas, Under Armour and Puma, among other athletic and leisure footwear and apparel companies.
Show full overview
NIKE's footwear supply chain is more concentrated than its wholesale-plus-direct sales model suggests: factories in Vietnam alone produced approximately 51% of total NIKE Brand footwear in fiscal 2025, and just four contract manufacturers together accounted for roughly 59% of footwear production, with the single largest factory responsible for about 11%. Apparel shows a similar pattern, with the top five contract manufacturers producing approximately 51% of NIKE Brand apparel. NIKE states it believes it could develop alternative sources of supply over time if trade protection measures or other disruptions cut off a country or manufacturer, but acknowledges any substitute capacity might be less cost-effective, creating an ongoing margin risk rather than a one-time shock.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
From Nike, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted September 6, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-26Recent Developments — Nike, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Nike Stock (NKE) Hits 52-Week Low as CFO Departs and Turnaround Drags On - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Stock Falls on Q4 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - TradingView — TradingView negative
Generated 2026-09-26T04:01:58Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicnon-U.S. sales57%10-K Item 1: 'For fiscal 2025, non-U.S. NIKE Brand and Converse sales accounted for approximately 57% of total revenues, compared to 58% and 57% for fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2023, respectively.'
- LOWCustomerthree largest United States customers25%10-K Item 1: 'During fiscal 2025, our three largest United States customers accounted for approximately 25% of sales in the United States.'
- HIGHSupplierVietnam footwear manufacturing51%10-K Item 1: 'For fiscal 2025, factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China manufactured approximately 51%, 28% and 17% of total NIKE Brand footwear, respectively.'
- HIGHSuppliertop four footwear contract manufacturers59%10-K Item 1: 'For fiscal 2025, four footwear contract manufacturers each accounted for greater than 10% of footwear production and in the aggregate accounted for approximately 59% of NIKE Brand footwear production.'
- LOWSupplierlargest single footwear factory11%10-K Item 1: 'The largest single finished goods footwear factory accounted for approximately 11% of total fiscal 2025 NIKE Brand footwear production.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -1.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 3.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.75 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $34.16. Score 5.0/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $43.54 (+21.8% upside). Prior stop was $34.16. Stop-loss: $34.16.
Concentration risk — Geographic: non-U.S. sales (57.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%); Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Nike, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.1 (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 7.1/10. Verdict: Sell.
46 analysts cover NKE with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $47.
What does Nike, Inc. do?Nike designs, develops, and markets athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment under the Nike, Jordan, and Converse...
Nike designs, develops, and markets athletic footwear, apparel, and equipment under the Nike, Jordan, and Converse brands, selling through Nike-owned retail and digital channels (Nike Direct) and wholesale accounts worldwide. Nearly all footwear and apparel is manufactured by independent contract manufacturers, with Vietnam producing about 51% of Nike Brand footwear and non-U.S. sales accounting for approximately 57% of fiscal 2025 revenue.