Nike has delivered four consecutive quarterly earnings beats with an average surprise of 40%, while trading 21% below analyst consensus targets, but concentrated supply chain exposure in Vietnam and an elevated put-to-call ratio of 3.46 present material risks heading into near-term earnings.
Thesis pillars
- Consistent Earnings Beat Streak↑Improving
- Supply Chain Vietnam Concentration↓Deteriorating
- Analyst Upside Potential↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Nike, Inc. (NKE) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Sell if holding. At $35.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%).
Nike designs, develops and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands, through wholesale and its own direct channels worldwide. Products are made by contract manufacturers. No customer accounted for 10% or more of... Read more
Sell if holding. At $35.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.
Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 63d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.
About Nike, Inc.
About Nike, Inc.
NIKE sells athletic footwear, apparel and equipment under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands through NIKE Direct (owned retail stores and digital platforms) and wholesale accounts in nearly every country. Non-U.S. sales accounted for approximately 57% of NIKE Brand and Converse revenue in fiscal 2025, with the remaining 43% from the United States, where the company operates 376 retail stores and eight significant distribution centers, versus 658 stores across more than 40 countries internationally.
NIKE earns revenue by selling to wholesale accounts -- independent distributors, licensees and sales representatives -- and through NIKE Direct, comprising company-owned retail stores and digital commerce platforms in over 40 countries. Nearly all footwear and apparel is produced by independent contract manufacturers outside the United States, which in turn source principal materials such as rubber, leather, textiles and polyurethane films from 184 strategic Tier 2 suppliers; NIKE's own Air Manufacturing Innovation subsidiary supplies Air-Sole cushioning components from facilities in Oregon, Vietnam and Missouri. The company uses a futures ordering program that lets wholesale customers place orders five to six months ahead of delivery, helping plan production, though these advance orders can be canceled and are not always indicative of eventual revenue. NIKE competes against adidas, Under Armour and Puma, among other athletic and leisure footwear and apparel companies.
Show full overview
NIKE's footwear supply chain is more concentrated than its wholesale-plus-direct sales model suggests: factories in Vietnam alone produced approximately 51% of total NIKE Brand footwear in fiscal 2025, and just four contract manufacturers together accounted for roughly 59% of footwear production, with the single largest factory responsible for about 11%. Apparel shows a similar pattern, with the top five contract manufacturers producing approximately 51% of NIKE Brand apparel. NIKE states it believes it could develop alternative sources of supply over time if trade protection measures or other disruptions cut off a country or manufacturer, but acknowledges any substitute capacity might be less cost-effective, creating an ongoing margin risk rather than a one-time shock.
See also: Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
From Nike, Inc.'s most recent 10-K filing, extracted October 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Nike, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Falls More Steeply Than Broader Market: What Investors Need to Know - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS Nike Stock (NKE) Hits 52-Week Low as CFO Departs and Turnaround Drags On - TipRanks — TipRanks negative
- NEWS Why Is NKE Stock Falling Premarket Today? - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
- NEWS Nike (NKE) Stock Falls on Q4 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative negative
- NEWS NKE Stock In Focus: JPMorgan Doubts Nike’s Turnaround Potential, But Retail Disagrees - Stocktwits — Stocktwits negative
Generated 2026-10-15T11:52:21Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicVietnam footwear manufacturing51%10-K Item 1: 'For fiscal 2025, factories in Vietnam, Indonesia and China manufactured approximately 51%, 28% and 17% of total NIKE Brand footwear, respectively.'
- HIGHSupplierfootwear contract manufacturers59%10-K Item 1: 'footwear contract manufacturers each accounted for greater than 10% of footwear production and in the aggregate accounted for approximately 59% of NIKE Brand footwear production.'
- HIGHSuppliertop five apparel contract manufacturers51%10-K Item 1: 'the top five contract manufacturers in the aggregate accounted for approximately 51% of NIKE Brand apparel production.'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
4 floor-breakers
Revenue shrinking — -4.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $35.30, A.R:R is negative (-0.1) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 44. Prior stop was $33.00. Score 4.6/10, high confidence.
Take-profit target: $36.29 (-1.3% upside). Prior stop was $33.00. Stop-loss: $33.00.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam footwear manufacturing (51.0%); Concentration risk — Supplier: footwear contract manufacturers (59.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Nike, Inc. trades at a P/E of 17.0 (forward 21.0). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
46 analysts cover NKE with a consensus score of 3.5/5. Average price target: $38.
What does Nike, Inc. do?Nike designs, develops and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories under the NIKE, Jordan and...
Nike designs, develops and sells athletic footwear, apparel, equipment and accessories under the NIKE, Jordan and Converse brands, through wholesale and its own direct channels worldwide. Products are made by contract manufacturers. No customer accounted for 10% or more of fiscal 2025 net revenues.