Skip to main content

Birkenstock Holding plc (BIRK) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth.

Birkenstock Holding plc engages in the manufacture and sale of footwear products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It offers footbed-based products, including sandals and closed-toe shoes; and skincare products and accessories. The company... Read more

$33.21+40.3% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#5 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield3.18%
Stop $30.89Target $46.60(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.3:1
Analyst target$51.78+55.9%20 analysts
$46.60our TP
$33.21price
$51.78mean
$77

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 85d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Birkenstock Holding plc

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 quality resilience bonus: +0.2 (Q=7.1 in RISK_OFF)
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.6
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$6.0B
EV/EBITDA11.5
Profit Mgn16.3%
ROE12.5%
Rev Growth7.7%
Beta1.15
DividendNone
Rating analysts27

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.57bullish
IV53%elevated
Max Pain$25-24.7% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.4

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.9
Rsi
3.5
Obv
10.0
Volume accumulation (rising OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -4.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 3.3 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 85d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
34 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.12Resistance $41.33

Price Targets

$31
$47
A.Upside+40.3%
A.R:R3.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-13 (85d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BIRK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.3/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $33.21 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 34, MACD bearish. Prior stop was $30.89. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BIRK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.60 (+40.3% upside). Prior stop was $30.89. Stop-loss: $30.89.

What are the risks of investing in BIRK?

Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is BIRK overvalued or undervalued?

Birkenstock Holding plc trades at a P/E of 14.6 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about BIRK?

27 analysts cover BIRK with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $52.

What does Birkenstock Holding plc do?Birkenstock Holding plc engages in the manufacture and sale of footwear products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle...

Birkenstock Holding plc engages in the manufacture and sale of footwear products in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It offers footbed-based products, including sandals and closed-toe shoes; and skincare products and accessories. The company sells its products through e-commerce sites and a network of owned retail stores, as well as business-to-business channels. The company was formerly known as Birkenstock Group Limited. Birkenstock Holding plc was founded in 1774 and is based in London, the United Kingdom. Birkenstock Holding plc operates as a subsidiary of BK LC Lux MidCo S.à r.l.

Related stocks: DECK (Deckers Outdoor Corporation) · WWW (Wolverine World Wide, Inc.) · ONON (On Holding AG) · SHOO (Steven Madden, Ltd.) · CROX (Crocs, Inc.)