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Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Stock Analysis

Falling Knife setup · Temp Headwind edge

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Earnings in 1 day (2026-05-21). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $90.25. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $92.75. Engine's entry $90.25 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Deckers Outdoor designs and distributes footwear under UGG, HOKA, Teva, and AHNU brands, with products manufactured by independent contractors predominately in Vietnam. In FY2025, top 10 customers made up 23.7% of net sales; no single customer exceeded 10%. Revenue comes via... Read more

$92.75+27.8% A.UpsideScore 6.1/10#3 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield5.67%
Entry $90.25(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $84.04Target $114.47(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 3.5:1Setup A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$127.19+37.1%21 analysts
$114.47our TP
$92.75price
$127.19mean
$184

Wait for pullback to $90.25. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $92.75. Engine's entry $90.25 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/10 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(5), semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Val7.5Qual8.8Grw4.2Mom1.2Sent7.7Ins5.0Peer5.3Tech7.4Risk6.36.1OVERALL

Recent Developments — Deckers Outdoor Corporation

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
V7 flight-to-quality bonus: +0.5 (Q=8.8 in RISK_OFF)
Recent Analyst detected in news
Recent Analyst Cluster(5) detected in news
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China
Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)13.4
P/E (Fwd)12.8
Mkt Cap$13.4B
EV/EBITDA8.6
Profit Mgn19.3%
ROE39.7%
Rev Growth7.1%
Beta1.14
DividendNone
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C0.70bullish
IV94%elevated
Max Pain$135+45.6% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliertwo tanneries in China
    10-K Item 1: 'Sheepskin used to manufacture a significant portion of our UGG brand products and is sourced primarily from designated suppliers in Australia and processed by two tanneries in China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 1.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 1d<=7dA.R:R 3.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS BOOST ANALYST 0.35NEWS BOOST ANALYST CLUSTER(5)SEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARFalling KnifeSuitability: Moderate
RSI
32 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $92.66Resistance $109.33

Price Targets

$84
$90
$114
A.Upside+23.4%
A.R:R3.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 1 day - binary event risk
! Momentum score 1.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (1d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DECK stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $90.25. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $92.75. Engine's entry $90.25 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 32, MACD bearish. Earnings in 1 day. Wait until post-earnings. Target $114.47 (+23.4%), stop $84.04 (−10.4%), Setup A.R:R 4.0:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DECK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $114.47 (+27.8% upside). Target $114.47 (+23.4%), stop $84.04 (−10.4%), Setup A.R:R 4.0:1. Stop-loss: $84.04.

What are the risks of investing in DECK?

Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.

Is DECK overvalued or undervalued?

Deckers Outdoor Corporation trades at a P/E of 13.4 (forward 12.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.5/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about DECK?

33 analysts cover DECK with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $127.

What does Deckers Outdoor Corporation do?Deckers Outdoor designs and distributes footwear under UGG, HOKA, Teva, and AHNU brands, with products manufactured by...

Deckers Outdoor designs and distributes footwear under UGG, HOKA, Teva, and AHNU brands, with products manufactured by independent contractors predominately in Vietnam. In FY2025, top 10 customers made up 23.7% of net sales; no single customer exceeded 10%. Revenue comes via wholesale and direct-to-consumer (179 retail stores and e-commerce in 56 countries as of March 31, 2025).

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