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Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Stock Analysis

Temp Headwind edge

HoldModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $103.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Negative momentum.

Deckers Outdoor designs and markets footwear under UGG, HOKA, Teva, and AHNU brands through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels globally. No single customer exceeded 10% of fiscal 2025 net sales; top-10 customers represented 23.7% of sales. The company relies heavily on... Read more

$103.08+12.4% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#3 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
Stop $96.83Target $115.93(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 2.0:1
Analyst target$128.81+25.0%21 analysts
$115.93our TP
$103.08price
$128.81mean
$90
$184

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $103.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
High-quality business
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA (2d, -0.5%)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)13.8
Mkt Cap$14.4B
EV/EBITDA9.3
Profit Mgn19.3%
ROE39.7%
Rev Growth7.1%
Beta1.21
DividendNone
Rating analysts33

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.18bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$65-36.9% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSuppliertwo tanneries in China
    10-K Item 1A: 'Sheepskin used in our UGG brand products is sourced primarily from designated suppliers in Australia and processed by two tanneries in China'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.0
Rsi
3.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA (recent, shallow — too early to call)
GatesMomentum 1.3<4.5A.R:R 2.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 21d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $97.54Resistance $113.87

Price Targets

$97
$116
A.Upside+12.5%
A.R:R2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 1.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-21 (21d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DECK stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $103.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $115.93 (+12.5%), stop $96.83 (−6.5%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DECK stock price target?

Take-profit target: $115.93 (+12.4% upside). Target $115.93 (+12.5%), stop $96.83 (−6.5%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $96.83.

What are the risks of investing in DECK?

Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA (2d, -0.5%).

Is DECK overvalued or undervalued?

Deckers Outdoor Corporation trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about DECK?

33 analysts cover DECK with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $129.

What does Deckers Outdoor Corporation do?Deckers Outdoor designs and markets footwear under UGG, HOKA, Teva, and AHNU brands through wholesale and...

Deckers Outdoor designs and markets footwear under UGG, HOKA, Teva, and AHNU brands through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels globally. No single customer exceeded 10% of fiscal 2025 net sales; top-10 customers represented 23.7% of sales. The company relies heavily on two tanneries in China for sheepskin processing critical to UGG products.

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