Deckers is a high-quality franchise with a wide economic moat, 41% return on equity, and four consecutive earnings beats averaging nearly 22% above consensus—but the stock has reached the analyst price target, leaving only about 1.5% headroom, and growth has softened, making this a hold for existing owners rather than a compelling entry for new buyers.
Thesis pillars
- Sustained Earnings Execution→Stable
- High Quality Wide Moat Franchise→Stable
- Geographic Supply Chain Concentration↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Wait for pullback to $80.78. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $82.82. Engine's entry $80.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam and Indonesia manufacturing; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5.
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories under three brands: HOKA (performance running), UGG (premium casual), and Teva (outdoor). The company sells through wholesale retailers and a Direct-to-Consumer channel comprising 203... Read more
Wait for pullback to $80.78. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $82.82. Engine's entry $80.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam and Indonesia manufacturing; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 4.1 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (4.1) - hard block; Earnings in 7 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/10 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear, sector concentration cap sector=consumer cyclical 0/10 self excluded). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA) and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-15Recent Developments — Deckers Outdoor Corporation
Latest news
- NEWS Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - TradingKey — TradingKey neutral
- NEWS DECK|Deckers Outdoor Corp|Price:98.359|Chg%:-5.181 - TradingKey — TradingKey negative
- NEWS DECK|Deckers Outdoor Corp|Price:98.359|Chg%:-5.181 - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com negative
- NEWS Deckers Outdoor Corp (DECK) Technical Analysis: Support, Resistance, Indicators & Moving Averages - tradingkey.com — tradingkey.com neutral
- NEWS Deckers Outdoor (DECK) Breaks $1b In Sales On An Undervalued Narrative - simplywall.st — simplywall.st positive
Generated 2026-10-15T11:37:20Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHGeographicVietnam and Indonesia manufacturing10-K Item 1A: 'the majority of which are located in Southeast Asia, predominantly in Vietnam and Indonesia, which exposes us to geographic concentration risk'
- MEDIUMSuppliertwo tanneries in China (sheepskin)10-K Item 1A: 'processed largely by two tanneries in China capable of meeting our quality, volume, and animal welfare standards'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers
Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $80.78. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $82.82. Engine's entry $80.78 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam and Indonesia manufacturing; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. V9 Gate blocked: Momentum 4.1 < 4.5 minimum; 50MA < 200MA with weak momentum (4.1) - hard block; Earnings in 7 days (≤7d hard window). Wait for improvement. Target $108.37 (+30.9%), stop $76.70 (−8.0%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Score 6.0/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $108.37 (+30.8% upside). Target $108.37 (+30.9%), stop $76.70 (−8.0%), A.R:R 4.5:1. Stop-loss: $76.70.
Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam and Indonesia manufacturing; Sector modifier (Consumer Cyclical): -1.5; Earnings in 7 days (event risk).
Deckers Outdoor Corporation trades at a P/E of 11.7 (forward 9.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
33 analysts cover DECK with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $120.
What does Deckers Outdoor Corporation do?Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories under three brands: HOKA...
Deckers Outdoor Corporation designs and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories under three brands: HOKA (performance running), UGG (premium casual), and Teva (outdoor). The company sells through wholesale retailers and a Direct-to-Consumer channel comprising 203 Company-owned stores in 54 countries, employing approximately 6,000 people. All production is outsourced to independent manufacturers, predominantly in Vietnam and Indonesia, with less than 5% from China or any other single country.