Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) Stock Analysis
Temp Headwind edge
Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $103.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Negative momentum.
Deckers Outdoor designs and markets footwear under UGG, HOKA, Teva, and AHNU brands through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels globally. No single customer exceeded 10% of fiscal 2025 net sales; top-10 customers represented 23.7% of sales. The company relies heavily on... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $103.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/7 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 21d clear, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHSuppliertwo tanneries in China10-K Item 1A: 'Sheepskin used in our UGG brand products is sourced primarily from designated suppliers in Australia and processed by two tanneries in China'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $103.08, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $115.93 (+12.5%), stop $96.83 (−6.5%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $115.93 (+12.4% upside). Target $115.93 (+12.5%), stop $96.83 (−6.5%), A.R:R 2.0:1. Stop-loss: $96.83.
Concentration risk — Supplier: two tanneries in China; Negative momentum; Below 200-MA (2d, -0.5%).
Deckers Outdoor Corporation trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 13.8). TrendMatrix value score: 7.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
33 analysts cover DECK with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $129.
What does Deckers Outdoor Corporation do?Deckers Outdoor designs and markets footwear under UGG, HOKA, Teva, and AHNU brands through wholesale and...
Deckers Outdoor designs and markets footwear under UGG, HOKA, Teva, and AHNU brands through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels globally. No single customer exceeded 10% of fiscal 2025 net sales; top-10 customers represented 23.7% of sales. The company relies heavily on two tanneries in China for sheepskin processing critical to UGG products.