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On Holding AG (ONON) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellModerate Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).

On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic... Read more

$35.47+41.9% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#5 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
Stop $32.99Target $50.34(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 4.0:1
Analyst target$55.93+57.7%26 analysts
$50.34our TP
$35.47price
$55.93mean
$24
$85

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
Analyst upside: 42%
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)45.3
P/E (Fwd)17.4
Mkt Cap$11.7B
EV/EBITDA26.6
Profit Mgn6.8%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth22.6%
Beta2.23
DividendNone
Rating analysts35

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C0.67bullish
IV68%elevated
Max Pain$23-35.2% vs spot

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.6
Support Resistance
3.9
Bollinger
4.5

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
3.4
Ma Position
4.0
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Surprise Avg
0.0
Earnings History
3.3
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
5.0
Earnings concerns: 2B/2MEarnings in 12 days
GatesMomentum 3.7<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)EARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 4.0 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
66 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $31.76Resistance $37.89

Price Targets

$33
$50
A.Upside+41.9%
A.R:R4.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Momentum score 3.7/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-12 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ONON stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 3.7/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $35.47 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 66. Prior stop was $32.99. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the ONON stock price target?

Take-profit target: $50.34 (+41.9% upside). Prior stop was $32.99. Stop-loss: $32.99.

What are the risks of investing in ONON?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is ONON overvalued or undervalued?

On Holding AG trades at a P/E of 45.3 (forward 17.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.3/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ONON?

35 analysts cover ONON with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $56.

What does On Holding AG do?On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand...

On Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, develops and distributes performance sports products under the On brand in Switzerland, the rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, the rest of the Americas, and the Asia-Pacific. The company offers athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories for performance running, performance outdoor, performance all day, performance training, performance tennis, and young movers. It sells its products to athletes and active customers through wholesale and direct-to-consumer channels; run specialty, general sporting goods, outdoor, luxury, street fashion, and lifestyle retailers; owned retail stores; and e-commerce platforms. On Holding AG was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland.

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