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Crocs, Inc. (CROX) Stock Analysis

SellHigh Confidence

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories

Sell if holding. At $97.00, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam) (45.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (Crocs Brand production) (45.0%).

Crocs, Inc. designs and sells casual footwear under two segments—the Crocs Brand (439 company-operated stores globally) and the HEYDUDE Brand (75 stores, primarily U.S.)—distributed via wholesale (47.9% of 2025 revenue) and direct-to-consumer channels (52.1%). Digital sales... Read more

$97.00+1.1% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#6 of 7 Footwear & Accessories
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield9.27%
Stop $91.96Target $98.02(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.1:1
Analyst target$112.67+16.2%12 analysts
$98.02our TP
$97.00price
$112.67mean
$86
$135

Sell if holding. At $97.00, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam) (45.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (Crocs Brand production) (45.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 79d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Crocs, Inc.

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam) (45.0%)
Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (Crocs Brand production) (45.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)6.7
Mkt Cap$4.8B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn-2.6%
ROE-6.1%
Rev Growth-1.7%
Beta1.54
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.06bearish
IV51%elevated
Max Pain$38-61.3% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHSupplierlargest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam)45%
    10-K Item 1: 'Our largest third-party manufacturer for the Crocs Brand, with the majority of operations in Vietnam, produced approximately 45%, 50%, and 47% of our production during the years ended December 31, 2025, 2024, and 2023, respectively'
  • MEDIUMSuppliersecond largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam/China)28%
    10-K Item 1: 'our second largest third-party manufacturer for the Crocs Brand, primarily operating in both Vietnam and China, produced approximately 28%, 25%, and 26% of our production'
  • HIGHGeographicVietnam (Crocs Brand production)45%
    10-K Item 1: 'approximately 45%, 51%, and 56%, respectively, of our Crocs Brand production was in Vietnam'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -1.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.1
Declining revenue: -2%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.0
Growth Rank
0.0
Value Rank
5.7

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.9
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
7.6
Uptrend pullback (RSI 39) - buy opportunityVolume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R 0.1 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 79d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $94.80Resistance $113.16

Price Targets

$92
$98
A.Upside+1.1%
A.R:R0.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.1% upside)
! Momentum score 3.3/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 0.1:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (79d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CROX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $97.00, A.R:R 0.1:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Supplier: largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam) (45.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (Crocs Brand production) (45.0%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $91.96. Score 4.9/10, high confidence.

What is the CROX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $98.02 (+1.1% upside). Prior stop was $91.96. Stop-loss: $91.96.

What are the risks of investing in CROX?

Concentration risk — Supplier: largest Crocs Brand manufacturer (Vietnam) (45.0%); Concentration risk — Geographic: Vietnam (Crocs Brand production) (45.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CROX overvalued or undervalued?

Crocs, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 6.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about CROX?

23 analysts cover CROX with a consensus score of 3.7/5. Average price target: $113.

What does Crocs, Inc. do?Crocs, Inc. designs and sells casual footwear under two segments—the Crocs Brand (439 company-operated stores globally)...

Crocs, Inc. designs and sells casual footwear under two segments—the Crocs Brand (439 company-operated stores globally) and the HEYDUDE Brand (75 stores, primarily U.S.)—distributed via wholesale (47.9% of 2025 revenue) and direct-to-consumer channels (52.1%). Digital sales represented 37.8% of 2025 consolidated revenues. Croslite material technology and global brand recognition differentiate product offerings.

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