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NICENICE LtdHold5.7·$102.26-2.84%
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

NICE Ltd is a cloud-based software company trading at a forward P/E of 6.9x with 52% analyst upside and a 32% margin of safety, but confirmed downward price momentum with the 200-day moving average declining at 6.7%/month and a death cross create a challenging near-term technical environment despite the compelling valuation.

Thesis pillars

  • Deep Value Software DiscountDeteriorating
  • High Quality Business MetricsDeteriorating
  • Earnings Beat ConsistencyDeteriorating
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

NICE Ltd (NICE) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldValueModerate Confidence

Technology · Software - Application

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $102.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Weak growth.

NICE Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides AI-powered cloud platforms for customer engagement, and financial crime and compliance in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates in two segments, Customer Engagement; and Financial... Read more

$102.26+7.1% A.UpsideScore 5.7/10#78 of 124 Software - Application
QualityF-score7 / 9FCF yield10.00%
Stop $95.10Target $109.49(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.5:1
Analyst target$125.85+23.1%13 analysts
$109.49our TP
$102.26price
$125.85mean
$170

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $102.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/9 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 89d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Nov 12, 202689d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.1%
Weak growth
Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)8.3
Mkt Cap$6.2B
EV/EBITDA189.4
Profit Mgn13.9%
ROE11.3%
Rev Growth7.6%
Beta0.04
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F7/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C1.13bearish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
4.4

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
1.7
Support Resistance
2.2
Bollinger
3.3
Gap
5.0
GatesMomentum 4.4<4.5A.R:R 0.5 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 89d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Speculative
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $86.01Resistance $106.78

Price Targets

$95
$109
A.Upside+7.1%
A.R:R0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 4.4 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! asymmetry at 0.5 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-12 (89d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NICE stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $102.26, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Weak growth. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 58. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $109.49 (+7.1%), stop $95.10 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Score 5.7/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NICE stock price target?

Take-profit target: $109.49 (+7.1% upside). Target $109.49 (+7.1%), stop $95.10 (−7.5%), A.R:R 0.5:1. Stop-loss: $95.10.

What are the risks of investing in NICE?

Thin upside margin: 7.1%; Weak growth; Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NICE overvalued or undervalued?

NICE Ltd trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 8.3). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about NICE?

15 analysts cover NICE with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $126.

What does NICE Ltd do?NICE Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides AI-powered cloud platforms for customer engagement, and financial...

NICE Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides AI-powered cloud platforms for customer engagement, and financial crime and compliance in the United States, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates in two segments, Customer Engagement; and Financial Crime and Compliance. The Customer Engagement segment provides CXone Mpower platform for organizations to automate service, augment the workforce with AI-powered solutions, and unify enterprise knowledge, data and AI models resolutions, and customer experiences. The Financial Crime and Compliance segment offers embedded-AI solutions that identify risks and help prevent money laundering and fraud, as well as help ensure financial markets compliance in real-time. It also provides NICE Evidencentral, a digital evidence management and investigation platform for criminal justice system. In addition, the company offers NiCE Actimize provides cloud platforms embedded with AI capabilities for real-time and cross-channel fraud prevention, know-your-customer, anti-money laundering, and capital markets compliance; X-Sight, an open AI-cloud platform for Financial Crime and Compliance, enabling financial services organizations; Xceed which provides AI, data intelligence, machine learning, and insights for AML and fraud prevention for small and mid-sized organizations; cloud platforms provide financial services organizations with the agility required to adapt changing regulatory and threat landscapes; data intelligence solutions enable organizations to turn raw data into actionable intelligence to prevent and detect financial crimes; AI and analytics; intelligent investigations solutions; and self-service solutions. The company also develops NiCE Labs, a AI innovation initiatives for customer experience and related solutions. The company was formerly known as NICE-Systems Ltd. and changed its name to NICE Ltd. in June 2016. NICE Ltd. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Ra'anana, Israel.

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