Value
8.8/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 9.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.6 |
| PEG | 9.4 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 8.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.60
- ▸Attractively valued
NICE · Why this verdict
Why NICE (NICE) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.0/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
NICE Ltd is a cloud-based software company trading at a forward P/E of 6.9x with 52% analyst upside and a 32% margin of safety, but confirmed downward price momentum with the 200-day moving average declining at 6.7%/month and a death cross create a challenging near-term technical environment despite the compelling valuation.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
NICE trades at a forward P/E of 6.9x with a PEG of 0.52 and 18% net margins, placing it at a significant discount to software sector peers and its own historical multiple, with analysts collectively targeting a price 52% above current levels. Valuation breakdown | The discount to analyst consensus targets narrows toward 25% within 12 months as the death cross resolves and the company continues to generate earnings above consensus. | Tripped↑Improving |
| CounterDeep valuation discounts in software companies in confirmed downtrends often persist for longer than investors expect; the 6.9x forward P/E may reflect genuine concerns about growth deceleration that are not yet reflected in forward estimates. | ||
NICE generates 18% net margins, 6.6x free cash flow quality, and ranks in the top quartile of its software application peer group on profitability metrics, indicating the business fundamentals remain strong despite the price weakness. Quality breakdown | Net margins remain above 15% and free cash flow quality score stays above 5.0 over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterWeak revenue growth of near-flat year-over-year combined with a severe momentum downtrend suggests the premium profitability metrics may be at risk if growth continues to decelerate. | ||
NICE beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent beat at 4.8% and prior beats showing solid consistency, suggesting operational execution remains intact despite the price weakness. Earnings | NICE beats consensus EPS in the next 2 quarterly reports without a miss exceeding 5%. | →Stable |
| CounterOne quarter produced a -14.7% miss which significantly distorts the beat narrative; the average earnings surprise across all 4 quarters is negative at -2.2%, suggesting beats are narrow and misses are severe. | ||
The stock has formed a death cross with the 200-day moving average declining at -6.7%/month — one of the steepest confirmed downtrends in the current universe — and the stock sits at its 52-week low, meaning price discovery is still actively working lower. Warnings | The 200-day moving average slope turns less negative and begins declining at a rate slower than -3%/month within 6 months, indicating momentum is stabilizing. | ↓Deteriorating |
| CounterA stock at its 52-week low with a 32% margin of safety to analyst targets and 3 out of 4 earnings beats may represent a deep value entry for investors with a 2+ year time horizon. | ||
NICE trades at a forward P/E of 6.9x with a PEG of 0.52 and 18% net margins, placing it at a significant discount to software sector peers and its own historical multiple, with analysts collectively targeting a price 52% above current levels.
Tripped↑ImprovingValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The discount to analyst consensus targets narrows toward 25% within 12 months as the death cross resolves and the company continues to generate earnings above consensus.
CounterDeep valuation discounts in software companies in confirmed downtrends often persist for longer than investors expect; the 6.9x forward P/E may reflect genuine concerns about growth deceleration that are not yet reflected in forward estimates.
NICE generates 18% net margins, 6.6x free cash flow quality, and ranks in the top quartile of its software application peer group on profitability metrics, indicating the business fundamentals remain strong despite the price weakness.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Net margins remain above 15% and free cash flow quality score stays above 5.0 over the next 12 months.
CounterWeak revenue growth of near-flat year-over-year combined with a severe momentum downtrend suggests the premium profitability metrics may be at risk if growth continues to decelerate.
NICE beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters, with the most recent beat at 4.8% and prior beats showing solid consistency, suggesting operational execution remains intact despite the price weakness.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- NICE beats consensus EPS in the next 2 quarterly reports without a miss exceeding 5%.
CounterOne quarter produced a -14.7% miss which significantly distorts the beat narrative; the average earnings surprise across all 4 quarters is negative at -2.2%, suggesting beats are narrow and misses are severe.
The stock has formed a death cross with the 200-day moving average declining at -6.7%/month — one of the steepest confirmed downtrends in the current universe — and the stock sits at its 52-week low, meaning price discovery is still actively working lower.
↓DeterioratingWarnings
- Expectation
- The 200-day moving average slope turns less negative and begins declining at a rate slower than -3%/month within 6 months, indicating momentum is stabilizing.
CounterA stock at its 52-week low with a 32% margin of safety to analyst targets and 3 out of 4 earnings beats may represent a deep value entry for investors with a 2+ year time horizon.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 4.9 |
| ROA | 5.2 |
| Gross margin | 9.2 |
| Op margin | 6.6 |
| Net margin | 8.8 |
| Current ratio | 4.7 |
| FCF quality | 6.6 |
| Moat | 7.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Strong margins: 18%
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
2.5/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.0 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 8.1 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 3.0 |
| Volume | 8.5 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 2.5 |
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.2 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: -0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 40%
Insider
7.3/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 10.0 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
6.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.2 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
- ▸Attractive P/E vs peers
- ▸Conservative debt levels
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 6.0 |
| support resistance | 5.2 |
| 52w position | 0.8 |
| gap | 7.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 7.6 |
| days to cover | 6.9 |
| volatility | 1.8 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.9 |
| news risk | 6.0 |
Catalyst
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.3 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.0>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:23d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- MOMENTUM:5.0<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=5.0>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.98
Upside
+21.5%
Downside
10.8%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 56
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 23d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilitySpeculative — Drawdown -46% (>40% off 52w high)
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:5.0>=4.5. Top dim: Value at 8.8; weakest: Growth at 2.5. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.8, Insider at 7.3, and Risk (lower is worse) at 7.0; the weakest are Growth at 2.5, Technical at 4.8, and Momentum at 5.0. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.98 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Deep Value Software DiscountTripped
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $100 or forward P/E rises above 12x without revenue growth exceeding 15%.
- P2Earnings Beat Consistency
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in at least 2 of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Death Cross Severe Downtrend
Trip ifPrice drops below $82.43 stop-loss level or 200-day moving average slope declines faster than -10%/month for more than 2 consecutive months.
- P4High Quality Business Metrics
Trip ifNet margin compresses below 12% or free cash flow quality score falls below 4.0 for 2 consecutive quarters.