National Fuel Gas is a wide-moat integrated energy utility with best-in-class 27% margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8, and 13% upside to analyst targets, though a confirmed death cross pattern and negative free-cash-flow quality are near-term headwinds that must resolve before the bullish case can be acted on.
Thesis pillars
- Wide Moat Margins Quality→Stable
- Earnings Beat Streak→Stable
- Death Cross Technical Block→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup · Catalyst-Driven edge
Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $79.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified natural gas company with Integrated Upstream and Gathering (Seneca Resources, 4,980,410 MMcf proved reserves at September 30, 2025), Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments centered in western New York and Pennsylvania. The Utility... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $79.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 8/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 25d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: moderate.
About National Fuel Gas Company
About National Fuel Gas Company
Seneca Resources Company held proved developed and undeveloped natural gas reserves of 4,980,410 MMcf plus 180 thousand barrels of oil at September 30, 2025, anchoring National Fuel Gas Company's Appalachian Basin operations spanning Marcellus and Utica shale development in Pennsylvania. In fiscal 2025, the three segments contributed combined net income of $528.9 million: Integrated Upstream and Gathering $324.7 million, Pipeline and Storage $121.0 million, and Utility $83.2 million, with the Utility serving approximately 756,000 customers in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania.
The Pipeline and Storage segment, operated by Supply Corporation and Empire Pipeline, transports natural gas through integrated systems in Pennsylvania and New York under FERC-regulated straight-fixed-variable tariffs that recover fixed costs in reservation charges regardless of volume. The Utility segment operates under rates approved by the New York Public Service Commission (NYPSC) and the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PaPUC); small residential and commercial customers are largely protected from commodity price swings by rate mechanisms, while large commercial and industrial customers source gas independently from unregulated marketers. Seneca hedges a substantial portion of future natural gas sales to manage commodity price volatility. The Utility purchased 77.4 billion cubic feet of gas in fiscal 2025, with DTE Energy Trading, Inc. accounting for 33% of Utility gas purchases; together the top five suppliers—DTE Energy Trading (33%), Emera Energy Services (11%), Chevron Natural Gas (10%), Shell Energy North America (7%), and NRG Business Marketing (6%)—represented nearly 67% of those purchases.
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New York State's Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), passed in July 2019, creates escalating risk for the Utility segment: in May 2023, New York prohibited fossil fuel equipment in new buildings effective December 31, 2025, and a New York State court directed the NYDEC in October 2025 to promulgate greenhouse-gas-reduction regulations by February 6, 2026. The December 2024 Climate Change Superfund Act further requires fossil fuel producers and related entities to pay into a state climate fund based on past greenhouse gas emissions, though NYDEC has until June 2027 to develop implementing regulations and multiple federal court challenges to the Act are pending.
See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
From National Fuel Gas Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — National Fuel Gas Company
Latest news
- NEWS National Fuel Gas Co (NYSE:NFG) Misses Q2 Estimates and Lowers Full-Year Guidance on Weaker Gas Price Outlook - ChartMil — ChartMill negative
- NEWS NATIONAL FUEL GAS ($NFG) Releases Q2 2026 Earnings - Quiver Quantitative — Quiver Quantitative neutral
- NEWS National Fuel Gas Updates Investor Presentation, Highlights Key Risks - TipRanks — TipRanks neutral
- NEWS National Fuel Gas (NFG) Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance negative
- NEWS National Fuel Gas (NYSE:NFG) Updates FY 2026 Earnings Guidance - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T06:50:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- LOWCustomerone customer11%10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from one customer of the Company's Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment ... represented approximately $258 million, or 11.3%, of the Company's consolidated revenue'
- MEDIUMSupplierDTE Energy Trading10-K Item 1: 'Purchases from DTE Energy Trading, Inc. (33%) ... accounted for nearly 67% of the Utility segment's 2025 gas purchases'
- MEDIUMregulatoryNYPSC and PaPUC10-K Item 1: 'The operations of Distribution Corporation are subject to the jurisdiction of the NYPSC, the PaPUC and, with respect to certain transactions, the FERC'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Analyst Consensus
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $79.34, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $86.27 (+8.7%), stop $76.62 (−3.5%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $86.27 (+8.7% upside). Target $86.27 (+8.7%), stop $76.62 (−3.5%), A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $76.62.
Thin upside margin: 8.7%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d (confirmed downtrend).
National Fuel Gas Company trades at a P/E of 10.7 (forward 10.1). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Hold.
8 analysts cover NFG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $102.
What does National Fuel Gas Company do?National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified natural gas company with Integrated Upstream and Gathering (Seneca...
National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified natural gas company with Integrated Upstream and Gathering (Seneca Resources, 4,980,410 MMcf proved reserves at September 30, 2025), Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments centered in western New York and Pennsylvania. The Utility segment serves approximately 756,000 customers; combined segment net income was $528.9 million in fiscal 2025.