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Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Stock Analysis

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.81: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 7.08; Below-average business quality.

Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the... Read more

$13.81+2.0% A.UpsideScore 4.9/10#14 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield4.70%(5y avg 13.97%)Payout43.16%sustainable
Stop $12.84Target $14.09(resistance)A.R:R -2.5:1
Analyst target$12.48-9.6%11 analysts
$14.09our TP
$13.81price
$12.48mean
$9
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.81: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 7.08; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 91d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Recent Developments — Ecopetrol S.A.

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-21.4% upside)
Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.6
P/E (Fwd)8.6
Mkt Cap$28.4B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn7.5%
ROE
Rev Growth-8.7%
Beta-0.04
Dividend4.70%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C7.08bearish
IV62%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
2.8
Moat
3.2
Net Margin
3.8
Piotroski F
4.4
No competitive moatQuality concerns

Revenue shrinking — -8.7% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.3
Earnings Growth
6.7
Declining revenue: -9%

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Dividend Safety
4.8
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
News Activity
8.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MYield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
GatesA.R:R -2.5=NEGATIVEMomentum 6.8>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 91d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.61Resistance $14.38

Price Targets

$13
$14
A.Upside+2.0%
A.R:R-2.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-21.4% upside)
! Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-18 (91d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $13.81: Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.9/10. Specifically: Elevated put/call ratio: 7.08; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $12.84. Score 4.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.09 (+2.0% upside). Prior stop was $12.84. Stop-loss: $12.84.

What are the risks of investing in EC?

Target reached (-21.4% upside); Quality below floor (2.8 < 4.0).

Is EC overvalued or undervalued?

Ecopetrol S.A. trades at a P/E of 10.6 (forward 8.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.1/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EC?

12 analysts cover EC with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Ecopetrol S.A. do?Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production;...

Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas. The Transport and Logistics segment is involved in the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels. The Refining and Petrochemicals segment refines and processes crude oil at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries; and distributes natural gas and LPG. The energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions segment supplies transmission and information technology and telecommunications services, as well as designs, develops, constructs, operates, and maintains road and energy infrastructure projects. The company operates in Colombia, the United States, China, Brazil, India, Singapore and other Asian countries, Peru, Chile, Other South America countries, Central America and the Caribbean, and Europe. The company was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and changed its name to Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003. Ecopetrol S.A. was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.

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