The integrated oil and gas company screens cheaply on a forward earnings basis but is hobbled by a quality profile that falls below the minimum acceptable threshold, a revenue base in contraction, and an earnings track record where three of the last four quarters missed by wide margins — making the setup unattractive despite the apparent value.
Thesis pillars
- Dividend Yield Sustainability Risk→Stable
- Below Threshold Business Quality↑Improving
- Chronic Earnings Miss Pattern→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.37 — A.R:R is negative (-3.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9).
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the... Read more
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.37 — A.R:R is negative (-3.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 49d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — Ecopetrol S.A.
Latest news
- NEWS Reported Earlier, Ecopetrol's Board Unanimously Appoints Joaquín Gutiérrez Caballero As New CEO, Effective September 28 — benzinga Sep 25, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Ecopetrol Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript — benzinga Sep 17, 2026 neutral
- NEWS These 7 Energy Stocks Are Rallying as Crude Tops $90 on US Strikes in Iran — benzinga Sep 1, 2026 positive
- NEWS Ecopetrol Closes $1.2B Deal For 51% Of Brava Energia, Adding 459M Boe Of Proved Reserves And 78.8 Kboed Production — benzinga Aug 18, 2026 positive
- NEWS UBS Maintains Neutral on Ecopetrol, Raises Price Target to $16 — benzinga Aug 14, 2026 neutral
Generated 2026-09-25T20:52:02Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $16.37 — A.R:R is negative (-3.9) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $15.80. Score 5.8/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $18.01 (-26.1% upside). Prior stop was $15.80. Stop-loss: $15.80.
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.9); Consecutive earnings misses (2).
Ecopetrol S.A. trades at a P/E of 11.1 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 6.7/10. Verdict: Sell.
11 analysts cover EC with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $14.
What does Ecopetrol S.A. do?Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production;...
Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Energy transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas. The Transport and Logistics segment is involved in the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels. The Refining and Petrochemicals segment refines and processes crude oil at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries; and distributes natural gas and LPG. The energy Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions segment supplies transmission and information technology and telecommunications services, as well as designs, develops, constructs, operates, and maintains road and energy infrastructure projects. The company operates in Colombia, the United States, China, Brazil, India, Singapore and other Asian countries, Peru, Chile, Other South America countries, Central America and the Caribbean, and Europe. The company was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and changed its name to Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003. Ecopetrol S.A. was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.