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Ecopetrol S.A. (EC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellModerate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.14: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment... Read more

$14.14+2.3% A.UpsideScore 5.2/10#11 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
Stop $13.15Target $14.46(resistance)A.R:R -2.0:1
Analyst target$11.84-16.3%11 analysts
$14.46our TP
$14.14price
$11.84mean
$9

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.14: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Target reached (-27.2% upside)
Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.3
P/E (Fwd)8.8
Mkt Cap$28.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn7.5%
ROE11.8%
Rev Growth-17.2%
Beta0.02
Dividend4.80%
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.05bullish
IV66%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Quality below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Operating Margin
0.0
Gross Margin
2.6
Roa
3.8
Net Margin
3.8
Roe
3.9
Moat
5.0
Current Ratio
5.6
Piotroski F
6.7
No competitive moat

Revenue shrinking — -17.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
7.8
Declining revenue: -17%
GatesA.R:R -2.0=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 12d<=14d (soft)Momentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
58 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $12.27Resistance $14.75

Price Targets

$13
$14
A.Upside+2.3%
A.R:R-2.0:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-27.2% upside)
! Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-12 (12d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is EC stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $14.14: Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 5.2/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 58, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $13.15. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the EC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $14.46 (+2.3% upside). Prior stop was $13.15. Stop-loss: $13.15.

What are the risks of investing in EC?

Target reached (-27.2% upside); Quality below floor (3.9 < 4.0).

Is EC overvalued or undervalued?

Ecopetrol S.A. trades at a P/E of 11.3 (forward 8.8). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about EC?

12 analysts cover EC with a consensus score of 2.6/5. Average price target: $12.

What does Ecopetrol S.A. do?Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production;...

Ecopetrol S.A. operates as an integrated energy company. It operates through four segments: Exploration and Production; Transport and Logistics; Refining and Petrochemicals; and Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions. The Exploration and Production segment engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas. The Transport and Logistics segment is involved in the transportation of crude oil, motor fuels, fuel oil, and other refined products, including diesel, jet, and biofuels. The Refining and Petrochemicals segment refines and processes crude oil at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena refineries; and distributes natural gas and LPG. The Electric Power Transmission and Toll Roads Concessions segment supplies electric power transmission and information technology and telecommunications services, as well as designs, develops, constructs, operates, and maintains road and energy infrastructure projects. The company operates in Colombia, rest of South America and others, Asia, the United States, Central America and the Caribbean, and Europe. The company was formerly known as Empresa Colombiana de Petróleos and changed its name to Ecopetrol S.A. in June 2003. Ecopetrol S.A. was incorporated in 1948 and is based in Bogotá, Colombia.

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