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YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Earnings in 7 days (2026-05-07). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.78: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality.

YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the... Read more

$44.78+4.8% A.UpsideScore 6.3/10#4 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
Stop $42.02Target $46.93(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.4:1
Analyst target$53.94+20.5%13 analysts
$46.93our TP
$44.78price
$53.94mean
$40
$70

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.78: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (10 sells, 0.10% of cap), Negative free cash flow

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)7.2
Mkt Cap$18.9B
EV/EBITDA2.4
Profit Mgn-4.7%
ROE-7.4%
Rev Growth36.6%
Beta0.03
DividendNone
Rating analysts12

Quality Signals

Piotroski F5/9

Options Flow

P/C0.93neutral
IV57%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Cyclical trough — margins compressed or negative. Profitability typically recovers with the cycle, but floor fires on current data.static

Roe
0.0
Net Margin
0.0
Fcf Quality
0.0
Gross Margin
1.6
Roa
2.8
Current Ratio
3.5
Operating Margin
4.0
Moat
5.0
Piotroski F
5.6
Cash-burning: FCF -14% of revenueNo competitive moatQuality concerns

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Earnings concerns: 1B/3MEarnings in 7 days
GatesA.R:R 0.4 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 7d<=7dMomentum 6.4>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
60 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $39.35Resistance $46.61

Price Targets

$42
$47
A.Upside+4.8%
A.R:R0.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0)
! Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (10 sells, 0.10% of cap), Negative free cash flow
! Reward/Risk 0.4:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-07 (7d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is YPF stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $44.78: Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0) triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 6.3/10. Specifically: Below-average business quality. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Prior stop was $42.02. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the YPF stock price target?

Take-profit target: $46.93 (+4.8% upside). Prior stop was $42.02. Stop-loss: $42.02.

What are the risks of investing in YPF?

Quality below floor (2.5 < 4.0); Value-trap signals (2/5): Material insider selling (10 sells, 0.10% of cap), Negative free cash flow.

Is YPF overvalued or undervalued?

YPF Sociedad Anonima trades at a P/E of N/A (forward 7.2). TrendMatrix value score: 8.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about YPF?

12 analysts cover YPF with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $54.

What does YPF Sociedad Anonima do?YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America...

YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon fields and production of crude oil and natural gas; the refining, transportation and commercialization of refined products; the production, transportation, and commercialization of petrochemical products; the transportation and commercialization of crude oil; and the commercialization of specialties for the agribusiness industry, and of grains and their by-products. The company also offers fertilizers and crop protection products; flours, oils, and grains; asphalts; naphtha; and petroleum coke. In addition, it engages in the natural gas transportation and commercialization to third parties and to the Midstream and Downstream segments; the separation of natural gas liquids and their fractionation, and storage and transportation to produce ethane, propane, butane, and gasoline, as well as its commercialization; the development of liquefied natural gas liquefaction capacity; and power generation activities. The company was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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