YPF is an Argentine integrated oil and gas company generating 43% revenue growth year-over-year and trading at a forward P/E of 9.3x, but it has missed earnings in 3 of 4 recent quarters with an average negative surprise of 147%, carries below-average business quality at 3.0, and shows free cash flow burning at negative 6% of revenue.
Thesis pillars
- Fcf Negative Quality Below Floor↑Improving
- Revenue Growth Vs Earnings Miss Pattern↑Improving
- Argentina Country Risk Earnings Distortion↑Improving
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026· older than 90 days
YPF Sociedad Anonima (YPF) Stock Analysis
Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $44.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2).
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $44.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.4/10, high confidence.
Passes 7/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 99d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: moderate.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — YPF Sociedad Anonima
Latest news
- NEWS YPF Sociedad Anónima (NYSE:YPF) Issues Quarterly Earnings Results, Beats Expectations By $1.08 EPS - MarketBeat — MarketBeat Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS Form 4 YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA: Walter Ariel Actis (Supply Chain VP) For: 1 October By Investing.com - Investing.com South — Investing.com South Africa Oct 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Form 4 YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA: Walter Ariel Actis (Supply Chain VP) For: 1 October - Investing.com Australia — Investing.com Australia Oct 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Form 4 YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA: Carlos Alejandro Berto (Reserves Auditor) For: 1 October - Investing.com Nigeria — Investing.com Nigeria Oct 24, 2026 neutral
- NEWS Form 4 YPF SOCIEDAD ANONIMA: Carlos Alejandro Berto (Reserves Auditor) For: 1 October By Investing.com - Investing.com S — Investing.com South Africa Oct 24, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:34:32Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $44.81 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Negative momentum; Consecutive earnings misses (2). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $41.72. Score 6.4/10, high confidence.
Analyst target: $54.08 (+20.7% upside). Prior stop was $41.72. Stop-loss: $41.72.
Consecutive earnings misses (2); Negative momentum.
YPF Sociedad Anonima trades at a P/E of 8.3 (forward 7.4). TrendMatrix value score: 9.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
13 analysts rate YPF, with a consensus score of 4.2/5. 13 analysts publish price targets averaging $62.
What does YPF Sociedad Anonima do?YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America...
YPF Sociedad Anónima, an energy company, engages in the oil and gas upstream and downstream activities in South America and Argentina. The company operates through the Upstream, Midstream and Downstream, LNG and Integrated Gas, and New Energies segments. It is involved in the exploration and exploitation of hydrocarbon fields and production of crude oil and natural gas; the refining, transportation and commercialization of refined products; the production, transportation, and commercialization of petrochemical products; the transportation and commercialization of crude oil; and the commercialization of specialties for the agribusiness industry, and of grains and their by-products. The company also offers fertilizers and crop protection products; flours, oils, and grains; asphalts; naphtha; and petroleum coke. In addition, it engages in the natural gas transportation and commercialization to third parties and to the Midstream and Downstream segments; the separation of natural gas liquids and their fractionation, and storage and transportation to produce ethane, propane, butane, and gasoline, as well as its commercialization; the development of liquefied natural gas liquefaction capacity; and power generation activities. The company was incorporated in 1977 and is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.