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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Wait for pullback to $81.52. At $86.51 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $81.52 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

National Fuel Gas is a diversified natural gas company with three segments: Integrated Upstream and Gathering (Seneca E&P, ~4.98 TCF proved reserves in Marcellus/Utica), Pipeline and Storage, and Utility (~756,000 customers in western New York and Pennsylvania). Revenue comes... Read more

$86.51+7.6% A.UpsideScore 6.4/10#3 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
Entry $81.52(Rr Min Solve Sticky)Stop $77.38Target $87.55(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.2:1Setup A.R:R 1.5:1
Analyst target$103.00+19.1%3 analysts
$87.55our TP
$86.51price
$103.00mean
$110

Wait for pullback to $81.52. At $86.51 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $81.52 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/6 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Earnings estimates trending UP
Attractive valuation
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)10.9
Mkt Cap$8.4B
EV/EBITDA7.2
Profit Mgn27.5%
ROE20.7%
Rev Growth18.6%
Beta0.53
Dividend2.43%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C5.63bearish
IV49%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomercustomers of Seneca (concentrated risk)
    10-K Item 1A: 'Certain customers of Seneca can represent a concentrated risk from time to time.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Volume
2.9
Ma Position
4.0
Rsi
8.3
Oversold in uptrend (RSI 26)Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5A.R:R 0.2 < 1.5@spotInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
26 · Oversold
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $85.01Resistance $96.71

Price Targets

$77
$82
$88
A.Upside+1.2%
A.R:R0.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (1.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+1: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Momentum score 3.2/10 — below 4.5 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-04-29 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $81.52. At $86.51 the A.R:R is 0.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $81.52 (Rr Min Solve Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +1 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $87.55 (+1.2%), stop $77.38 (−11.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Score 6.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $87.55 (+7.6% upside). Target $87.55 (+1.2%), stop $77.38 (−11.8%), Setup A.R:R 1.5:1. Stop-loss: $77.38.

What are the risks of investing in NFG?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Negative momentum.

Is NFG overvalued or undervalued?

National Fuel Gas Company trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 10.9). TrendMatrix value score: 8.0/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NFG?

8 analysts cover NFG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $103.

What does National Fuel Gas Company do?National Fuel Gas is a diversified natural gas company with three segments: Integrated Upstream and Gathering (Seneca...

National Fuel Gas is a diversified natural gas company with three segments: Integrated Upstream and Gathering (Seneca E&P, ~4.98 TCF proved reserves in Marcellus/Utica), Pipeline and Storage, and Utility (~756,000 customers in western New York and Pennsylvania). Revenue comes from natural gas production, interstate transportation, storage, and distribution.

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