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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Wait for pullback to $78.07. At $84.60 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $78.07 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: DTE Energy Trading (33.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company with integrated natural gas production (Marcellus/Utica), interstate pipeline and storage, and regulated utility serving ~756,000 customers in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. Revenues are split across... Read more

$84.60+7.5% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#5 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-0.35%
IncomeYield2.58%(5y avg 3.10%)Payout28.92%sustainable
Entry $78.07(Default 5pct Sticky)Stop $74.11Target $86.42(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 0.3:1Setup A.R:R 1.7:1
Analyst target$101.67+20.2%3 analysts
$86.42our TP
$84.60price
$101.67mean
$110

Wait for pullback to $78.07. At $84.60 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $78.07 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: DTE Energy Trading (33.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

Val7.4Qual6.7Grw5.4Mom6.5Sent6.6Ins5.0Peer6.1Tech5.7Risk6.26.2OVERALL

Recent Developments — National Fuel Gas Company

Latest news

Generated 2026-05-20T21:06:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+1.00)
Risks
Concentration risk — Supplier: DTE Energy Trading (33.0%)
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)11.2
P/E (Fwd)10.6
Mkt Cap$7.9B
EV/EBITDA6.7
Profit Mgn27.4%
ROE20.8%
Rev Growth17.6%
Beta0.42
Dividend2.58%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder✓

Options Flow

P/C2.40bearish
IV31%normal

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomersingle Integrated Upstream customer11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from one customer of the Company’s Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment...represented approximately $258 million, or 11.3%, of the Company’s consolidated revenue'
  • HIGHSupplierDTE Energy Trading33%
    10-K Item 1: 'Purchases from DTE Energy Trading, Inc. (33%), Emera Energy Services, Inc. (11%), Chevron Natural Gas (10%)...accounted for nearly 67% of the Utility segment’s 2025 gas purchases.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierEmera Energy Services11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Purchases from DTE Energy Trading, Inc. (33%), Emera Energy Services, Inc. (11%), Chevron Natural Gas (10%)...accounted for nearly 67% of the Utility segment’s 2025 gas purchases.'
  • MEDIUMSupplierChevron Natural Gas10%
    10-K Item 1: 'Purchases from DTE Energy Trading, Inc. (33%), Emera Energy Services, Inc. (11%), Chevron Natural Gas (10%)...accounted for nearly 67% of the Utility segment’s 2025 gas purchases.'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotMomentum 6.5>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
38 · Neutral
↑ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $79.22Resistance $90.13

Price Targets

$74
$78
$86
A.Upside+2.2%
A.R:R0.3:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (2.1% upside)
! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! Reward/Risk 0.3:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $78.07. At $84.60 the A.R:R is 0.3:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $78.07 (Default 5pct Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Concentration risk — Supplier: DTE Energy Trading (33.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $86.42 (+2.2%), stop $74.11 (−14.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $86.42 (+7.5% upside). Target $86.42 (+2.2%), stop $74.11 (−14.2%), Setup A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $74.11.

What are the risks of investing in NFG?

Concentration risk — Supplier: DTE Energy Trading (33.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is NFG overvalued or undervalued?

National Fuel Gas Company trades at a P/E of 11.2 (forward 10.6). TrendMatrix value score: 7.4/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NFG?

9 analysts cover NFG with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $102.

What does National Fuel Gas Company do?National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company with integrated natural gas production (Marcellus/Utica),...

National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified energy company with integrated natural gas production (Marcellus/Utica), interstate pipeline and storage, and regulated utility serving ~756,000 customers in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. Revenues are split across three segments: Integrated Upstream and Gathering ($324.7M net income), Pipeline and Storage ($121M), and Utility ($83.2M) in fiscal 2025. The Pipeline and Storage segment generated approximately 35% of revenues from affiliated segments.

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