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NFGNational Fuel Gas CompanyBuy Wait6.2·$76.78-0.08%
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National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Stock Analysis

Buy WaitVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Wait for pullback to $76.53. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $76.78. Engine's entry $76.53 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified natural gas company with Integrated Upstream and Gathering (Seneca Resources, 4,980,410 MMcf proved reserves at September 30, 2025), Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments centered in western New York and Pennsylvania. The Utility... Read more

$76.78+12.9% A.UpsideScore 6.2/10#4 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield-0.38%
IncomeYield2.89%(5y avg 3.08%)Payout28.92%sustainable
Entry $76.53(Support Atr Sticky)Stop $73.63Target $86.27(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 2.5:1Setup A.R:R 3.4:1
Analyst target$101.50+32.2%2 analysts
$86.27our TP
$76.78price
$101.50mean
$110

Wait for pullback to $76.53. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $76.78. Engine's entry $76.53 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 43d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: moderate.

10-K grounded · weekly refresh

About National Fuel Gas Company

About National Fuel Gas Company

Seneca Resources Company held proved developed and undeveloped natural gas reserves of 4,980,410 MMcf plus 180 thousand barrels of oil at September 30, 2025, anchoring National Fuel Gas Company's Appalachian Basin operations spanning Marcellus and Utica shale development in Pennsylvania. In fiscal 2025, the three segments contributed combined net income of $528.9 million: Integrated Upstream and Gathering $324.7 million, Pipeline and Storage $121.0 million, and Utility $83.2 million, with the Utility serving approximately 756,000 customers in western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania.

The Pipeline and Storage segment, operated by Supply Corporation and Empire Pipeline, transports natural gas through integrated systems in Pennsylvania and New York under FERC-regulated straight-fixed-variable tariffs that recover fixed costs in reservation charges regardless of volume. The Utility segment operates under rates approved by the New York Public Service Commission (NYPSC) and the Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission (PaPUC); small residential and commercial customers are largely protected from commodity price swings by rate mechanisms, while large commercial and industrial customers source gas independently from unregulated marketers. Seneca hedges a substantial portion of future natural gas sales to manage commodity price volatility. The Utility purchased 77.4 billion cubic feet of gas in fiscal 2025, with DTE Energy Trading, Inc. accounting for 33% of Utility gas purchases; together the top five suppliers—DTE Energy Trading (33%), Emera Energy Services (11%), Chevron Natural Gas (10%), Shell Energy North America (7%), and NRG Business Marketing (6%)—represented nearly 67% of those purchases.

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New York State's Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), passed in July 2019, creates escalating risk for the Utility segment: in May 2023, New York prohibited fossil fuel equipment in new buildings effective December 31, 2025, and a New York State court directed the NYDEC in October 2025 to promulgate greenhouse-gas-reduction regulations by February 6, 2026. The December 2024 Climate Change Superfund Act further requires fossil fuel producers and related entities to pay into a state climate fund based on past greenhouse gas emissions, though NYDEC has until June 2027 to develop implementing regulations and multiple federal court challenges to the Act are pending.

See also: Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

From National Fuel Gas Company's most recent 10-K filing, extracted June 11, 2026.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-17
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Jul 29, 202643d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Positive news sentiment (+0.67)
Attractive valuation
Risks
Negative momentum
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)10.4
P/E (Fwd)9.7
Mkt Cap$7.3B
EV/EBITDA6.3
Profit Mgn27.4%
ROE20.8%
Rev Growth17.6%
Beta0.39
Dividend2.89%
Rating analysts8

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.59bullish
IV40%normal
Max Pain$100+30.2% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomerone customer11%
    10-K Item 1: 'Revenue from one customer of the Company's Integrated Upstream and Gathering segment ... represented approximately $258 million, or 11.3%, of the Company's consolidated revenue'
  • MEDIUMSupplierDTE Energy Trading
    10-K Item 1: 'Purchases from DTE Energy Trading, Inc. (33%) ... accounted for nearly 67% of the Utility segment's 2025 gas purchases'
  • MEDIUMregulatoryNYPSC and PaPUC
    10-K Item 1: 'The operations of Distribution Corporation are subject to the jurisdiction of the NYPSC, the PaPUC and, with respect to certain transactions, the FERC'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
1.1
Rsi
3.5
Macd
10.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d — confirmed downtrend
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 2.5 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 43d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
39 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $75.67Resistance $85.20

Price Targets

$74
$77
$86
A.Upside+12.4%
A.R:R2.5:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)3.4:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionMedium conviction
Suggested %1%
Max %2.1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! NEWS_MOD=+2: HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (43d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NFG stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $76.53. Weak momentum; also below 200-day MA (death cross) — blocks BUY_NOW at $76.78. Engine's entry $76.53 (Support Atr Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $86.27 (+12.4%), stop $73.63 (−4.3%), Setup A.R:R 3.4:1. Score 6.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the NFG stock price target?

Take-profit target: $86.27 (+12.9% upside). Target $86.27 (+12.4%), stop $73.63 (−4.3%), Setup A.R:R 3.4:1. Stop-loss: $73.63.

What are the risks of investing in NFG?

Negative momentum; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.2%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is NFG overvalued or undervalued?

National Fuel Gas Company trades at a P/E of 10.4 (forward 9.7). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about NFG?

8 analysts cover NFG with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $102.

What does National Fuel Gas Company do?National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified natural gas company with Integrated Upstream and Gathering (Seneca...

National Fuel Gas Company is a diversified natural gas company with Integrated Upstream and Gathering (Seneca Resources, 4,980,410 MMcf proved reserves at September 30, 2025), Pipeline and Storage, and Utility segments centered in western New York and Pennsylvania. The Utility segment serves approximately 756,000 customers; combined segment net income was $528.9 million in fiscal 2025.

Related stocks: DEC (Diversified Energy Company) · TGS (Transportadora de Gas del Sur S) · SU (Suncor Energy Inc.) · YPF (YPF Sociedad Anonima) · CVE (Cenovus Energy Inc)
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