Value
8.2/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.9 |
| P/S | 8.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.3 |
| PEG | 6.7 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 10.1x
- ▸PEG: 1.09
- ▸Attractively valued
NFG · Why this verdict
Why National Fuel Gas (NFG) is rated HOLD
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictHOLD
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
National Fuel Gas holds a wide economic moat, generates 27% operating margins, and scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale, placing it among the best-in-class quality operators in the integrated energy peer group. Quality breakdown | Operating margins remain above 22% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterFree cash flow is negative relative to net income at -4%, indicating that reported earnings overstate actual cash generation, which limits reinvestment and distribution capacity. | ||
National Fuel Gas beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with solid positive surprises, and analysts see 32% upside to the current consensus price target, reflecting a favorable earnings outlook. Catalyst breakdown | The company beats or meets consensus EPS in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters and analyst price target remains above $90. | →Stable |
| CounterThe most recent quarter produced a miss of -4.46%, suggesting that earnings predictability has weakened and the beat streak may not continue. | ||
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the moving average slope declining at -1.1% per 30 days, confirming a deteriorating price trend that historically precedes further near-term weakness. Momentum breakdown | Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 6 months, signaling trend reversal. | →Stable |
| CounterMACD has turned bullish and the stock sits near technical support with 12% upside to analyst targets, which may attract buyers before the death cross fully resolves. | ||
With a forward P/E of 9.7x and PEG of 1.04, National Fuel Gas offers a reasonable entry price for a wide-moat integrated utility, with an asymmetry ratio of 2.46 suggesting that upside potential outweighs near-term downside. Valuation breakdown | The stock price rises above $86 analyst target within 12 months as the technical downtrend resolves and earnings trajectory holds. | →Stable |
| CounterA PEG above 1.0 for a utility company with declining free cash flow conversion may signal the valuation is not as compelling as headline P/E suggests. | ||
National Fuel Gas holds a wide economic moat, generates 27% operating margins, and scores 8 out of 9 on the Piotroski scale, placing it among the best-in-class quality operators in the integrated energy peer group.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Operating margins remain above 22% and Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above over the next 12 months.
CounterFree cash flow is negative relative to net income at -4%, indicating that reported earnings overstate actual cash generation, which limits reinvestment and distribution capacity.
National Fuel Gas beat earnings estimates in 3 of the last 4 quarters with solid positive surprises, and analysts see 32% upside to the current consensus price target, reflecting a favorable earnings outlook.
→StableCatalyst breakdown
- Expectation
- The company beats or meets consensus EPS in at least 2 of the next 3 quarters and analyst price target remains above $90.
CounterThe most recent quarter produced a miss of -4.46%, suggesting that earnings predictability has weakened and the beat streak may not continue.
The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average with the moving average slope declining at -1.1% per 30 days, confirming a deteriorating price trend that historically precedes further near-term weakness.
→StableMomentum breakdown
- Expectation
- Price recovers above the 200-day moving average and the moving average slope turns positive within 6 months, signaling trend reversal.
CounterMACD has turned bullish and the stock sits near technical support with 12% upside to analyst targets, which may attract buyers before the death cross fully resolves.
With a forward P/E of 9.7x and PEG of 1.04, National Fuel Gas offers a reasonable entry price for a wide-moat integrated utility, with an asymmetry ratio of 2.46 suggesting that upside potential outweighs near-term downside.
→StableValuation breakdown
- Expectation
- The stock price rises above $86 analyst target within 12 months as the technical downtrend resolves and earnings trajectory holds.
CounterA PEG above 1.0 for a utility company with declining free cash flow conversion may signal the valuation is not as compelling as headline P/E suggests.
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
National Fuel Gas is a wide-moat integrated energy utility with best-in-class 27% margins, a Piotroski F-Score of 8, and 13% upside to analyst targets, though a confirmed death cross pattern and negative free-cash-flow quality are near-term headwinds that must resolve before the bullish case can be acted on.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.9 |
| ROA | 5.0 |
| Gross margin | 8.8 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 2.5 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 8.2 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Strong margins: 27%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: -4% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
Growth
5.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 6.9 |
| EPS growth | 3.9 |
Momentum
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.3 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 4.0 |
| Volume | 3.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
5.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 8.4 |
| erm sentiment | 3.8 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 28%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
6.2/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 3.4 |
| quality rank | 8.2 |
| growth rank | 8.2 |
- ▸Best-in-class margins
- ▸Industry growth leader
Technical
2.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 0.0 |
| support resistance | 0.1 |
| 52w position | 6.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.9 |
| days to cover | 4.2 |
| volatility | 8.2 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 3.7 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 7.2 |
- ▸Concentration risks: 2 MED (10-K Item 1A)
Catalyst
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 3.5 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.9 |
| dividend safety | 5.2 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Dividend: 280.0%
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Maintain position. Not compelling to add more.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_HOLDPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:1.5>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:25d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.1>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
1.48
Upside
+8.7%
Downside
5.9%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRecovery — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 67
EdgeCatalyst-Driven — Earnings in 25d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
None of the engine's positive-conviction paths (C-quality, D-momentum) triggered — the F-path HOLD reflects balanced signals. Strongest-cleared gate: MOMENTUM:6.1>=5.5. Top dim: Value at 8.2; weakest: Technical at 2.2. No conviction either direction.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.2, Risk (lower is worse) at 7.2, and Quality at 6.7; the weakest are Technical at 2.2, Insider at 5.0, and Catalyst at 5.1. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 1.48 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Wide Moat Margins Quality
Trip ifOperating margin compresses below 18% for 2 consecutive quarters or Piotroski F-Score falls below 6.
- P2Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below -10% in 2 or more of the next 4 quarters.
- P3Death Cross Technical Block
Trip ifPrice drops below $73.63 stop-loss level or the 200-day moving average slope remains negative beyond 9 months.
- P4Attractive Valuation Entry
Trip ifAnalyst consensus price target falls below $80 or forward P/E rises above 14x without earnings growth above 10%.