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Diversified Energy Company (DEC) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 2/5Moderate Confidence

Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~66% (cyclical peak); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5.

Diversified Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the production, transportation and marketing of natural gas, oil, and liquids primarily in the Appalachian and Central regions of the United States. It also operates in the Bossier and Haynesville shale... Read more

$16.78+18.5% A.UpsideScore 7.2/10#1 of 17 Oil & Gas Integrated
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield7.01%(5y avg 13.24%)Payout14.55%sustainable
Stop $15.68Target $19.89(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$22.86+36.2%7 analysts
$19.89our TP
$16.78price
$22.86mean
$28

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~66% (cyclical peak); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 8/8 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 71d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — Diversified Energy Company

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Energy): +1.2
Strong overall score: 7.2/10
Attractive valuation
Risks
Earnings expected to decline ~66% (cyclical peak)
Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5
Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -60.6%), High leverage (D/E 3.9)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)2.1
P/E (Fwd)6.1
Mkt Cap$1.2B
EV/EBITDA5.0
Profit Mgn27.4%
ROE87.2%
Rev Growth66.0%
Beta0.35
Dividend7.01%
Rating analysts14

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9MoatWideCompounder

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.4
Bollinger
0.9
52w Position
7.8

No near-term catalyst priced in. Thesis progression will come from fundamentals grinding, not event reaction.static

Earnings History
0.0
Surprise Avg
0.0
Erm
5.0
Earnings Timing
5.0
Dividend Safety
5.2
Dividend: 701.0%
GatesMomentum 7.3>=5.5A.R:R 1.9 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 71d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
55 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $15.13Resistance $16.84

Price Targets

$16
$20
A.Upside+18.5%
A.R:R1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Cyclical trap - fwd PE 6x vs trail 2x (2.9x)

Earnings

M
M
M
M
0/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-29 (71d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DEC stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $16.78, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Earnings expected to decline ~66% (cyclical peak); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 55, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $19.89 (+18.5%), stop $15.68 (−7.0%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DEC stock price target?

Take-profit target: $19.89 (+18.5% upside). Target $19.89 (+18.5%), stop $15.68 (−7.0%), A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $15.68.

What are the risks of investing in DEC?

Earnings expected to decline ~66% (cyclical peak); Leverage penalty (D/E 3.9): -1.5; Value-trap signals (2/5): Margin compression (op margin -60.6%), High leverage (D/E 3.9).

Is DEC overvalued or undervalued?

Diversified Energy Company trades at a P/E of 2.1 (forward 6.1). TrendMatrix value score: 9.0/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about DEC?

14 analysts cover DEC with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $23.

What does Diversified Energy Company do?Diversified Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the production, transportation and marketing of...

Diversified Energy Company, an independent energy company, engages in the production, transportation and marketing of natural gas, oil, and liquids primarily in the Appalachian and Central regions of the United States. It also operates in the Bossier and Haynesville shale formations and the Cotton Valley sandstones in East Texas and West Louisiana, the Barnett Shale in North Texas and the Mid-Continent producing areas across Central Texas, along with the Anadarko Basin across North Texas and Oklahoma and Permian Basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Diversified Energy Company was founded in 2001 and is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama.

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