MACOM Technology Solutions combines 22% revenue growth and a near-perfect Piotroski score with a wide economic moat in semiconductors, but its current price has already reached the analyst target, leaving negative asymmetry and limiting the risk-reward for new positions.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Growth And Moat→Stable
- Customer Geographic Concentration Risk→Stable
- Negative Price Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
MACOM Technology Solutions Hold (MTSI) Stock Analysis
Technology · Semiconductors
Sell if holding. At $325.86, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%).
MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog semiconductor products — amplifiers, ICs, diodes, switches, and photonic components — for Industrial and Defense, Data Center, and Telecom markets, serving over 6,000 end customers. The company uses a fab-lite model with... Read more
Sell if holding. At $325.86, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 34d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-07-06Recent Developments — MACOM Technology Solutions Hold
Latest news
- NEWS MTSI Earnings Preview: MACOM Reports May 7 with $1.07 EPS Estimate - Meyka — Meyka neutral
- NEWS FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. Purchases Shares of 529,326 MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. $MTSI - MarketBea — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) Shares Surge 4.4% -- What GF Score of 83 Tells Investors - GuruFocus — GuruFocus positive
- NEWS INVESCO V.I. Small Cap Equity Fund's MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc(MTSI) Holding History - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Projected to Post Earnings on Thursday - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
Generated 2026-07-06T06:50:34Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers57%10-K Item 1A: 'sales to our top 10 direct and distribution customers accounted for an aggregate of 56.7% of our revenue'
- LOWCustomerone reseller (12.4% of revenue)12%10-K Item 1: 'One of our resellers accounted for 12.4% and 11.3% of our revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively'
- LOWCustomersecond reseller (11.2% of revenue)11%10-K Item 1: 'A second reseller accounted for 11.2% of our revenue in fiscal year 2025'
- HIGHGeographicinternational customers56%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to customers located outside the U.S. accounted for 56.3% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended October 3, 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicChina28%10-K Item 1A: 'fiscal year 2025 sales to customers in China and the Asia Pacific region accounted for 28.4% and 11.5% of total fiscal year 2025 sales, respectively'
- LOWGeographicAsia Pacific region12%10-K Item 1A: 'fiscal year 2025 sales to customers in China and the Asia Pacific region accounted for 28.4% and 11.5% of total fiscal year 2025 sales, respectively'
- HIGHSuppliersingle foundry per process10-K Item 1: 'wafers procured from merchant foundries for a particular process technology are generally sourced through a single foundry on which we rely for all of our wafers in that process'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $325.86, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $303.47. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $350.61 (+8.8% upside). Prior stop was $303.47. Stop-loss: $303.47.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%); Thin upside margin: 8.8%.
MACOM Technology Solutions Hold trades at a P/E of 137.1 (forward 47.1). TrendMatrix value score: 3.0/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover MTSI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $403.
What does MACOM Technology Solutions Hold do?MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog semiconductor products — amplifiers, ICs, diodes, switches,...
MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog semiconductor products — amplifiers, ICs, diodes, switches, and photonic components — for Industrial and Defense, Data Center, and Telecom markets, serving over 6,000 end customers. The company uses a fab-lite model with internal GaAs, GaN, and InP fabrication in North America and France plus external foundry partners; international customers represented 56.3% of fiscal year 2025 revenue.