MACOM Technology Solutions Hold (MTSI) Stock Analysis
Technology · Semiconductors
Sell if holding. At $277.26, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: non-US customers (56.3%).
MACOM Technology Solutions designs, develops, and manufactures differentiated semiconductors for Industrial & Defense (I&D), Data Center, and Telecom markets, serving over 6,000 end customers globally from its Lowell, MA headquarters. The company holds U.S. DoD Trusted Foundry... Read more
Sell if holding. At $277.26, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: non-US customers (56.3%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 7d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop-10 customers57%10-K Item 1A: 'sales to our top 10 direct and distribution customers accounted for an aggregate of 56.7% of our revenue'
- HIGHGeographicnon-US customers56%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to customers located outside the U.S. accounted for 56.3% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended October 3, 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicChina customers28%10-K Item 1A: 'fiscal year 2025 sales to customers in China and the Asia Pacific region accounted for 28.4% and 11.5% of total fiscal year 2025 sales, respectively'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer
Rating Breakdown
3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. At $277.26, A.R:R is negative (-0.6) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: non-US customers (56.3%). Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $258.14. Score 5.2/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $288.12 (+3.8% upside). Prior stop was $258.14. Stop-loss: $258.14.
Concentration risk — Customer: top-10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: non-US customers (56.3%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
MACOM Technology Solutions Hold trades at a P/E of 122.0 (forward 48.0). TrendMatrix value score: 3.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
22 analysts cover MTSI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $280.
What does MACOM Technology Solutions Hold do?MACOM Technology Solutions designs, develops, and manufactures differentiated semiconductors for Industrial & Defense...
MACOM Technology Solutions designs, develops, and manufactures differentiated semiconductors for Industrial & Defense (I&D), Data Center, and Telecom markets, serving over 6,000 end customers globally from its Lowell, MA headquarters. The company holds U.S. DoD Trusted Foundry accreditation and operates internal GaAs, GaN, and InP fabrication facilities. Top-10 customers represented 56.7% of fiscal 2025 revenue.