MACOM Technology Solutions combines 22% revenue growth and a near-perfect Piotroski score with a wide economic moat in semiconductors, but its current price has already reached the analyst target, leaving negative asymmetry and limiting the risk-reward for new positions.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Growth And Moat→Stable
- Customer Geographic Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Negative Price Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
MACOM Technology Solutions Hold (MTSI) Stock Analysis
Breakout setup
Technology · Semiconductors
Wait for pullback to $275.13. BUY gates pass at $284.94, but concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%) and concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $275.13 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.
MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog semiconductor products — amplifiers, ICs, diodes, switches, and photonic components — for Industrial and Defense, Data Center, and Telecom markets, serving over 6,000 end customers. The company uses a fab-lite model with... Read more
Wait for pullback to $275.13. BUY gates pass at $284.94, but concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%) and concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $275.13 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 9/9 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.35, news boost analyst cluster(3), earnings proximity 41d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-09-25Recent Developments — MACOM Technology Solutions Hold
Latest news
- NEWS MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Tokenized Stock (Robinhood) - CryptoRank — CryptoRank neutral
- NEWS MACOM Technology (NASDAQ: MTSI) Stands Out As Wall Street's Top Pick While Chewy (NYSE: CHWY) And C.H. Robinson (NASDAQ: — foreignpolicyjournal.com positive
- NEWS A Look at MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc (MTSI) After 7 - GuruFocus — GuruFocus neutral
- NEWS MACOM CFO John Kober Executes Sale of 7,389 Shares in August 2026 Under Rule 10b5-1 Plan - Kalkine Media — Kalkine Media neutral
- NEWS MACOM (NASDAQ: MTSI) CFO sells 7,389 shares at $320–$331 - Stock Titan — Stock Titan negative
Generated 2026-09-25T14:07:21Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers57%10-K Item 1A: 'sales to our top 10 direct and distribution customers accounted for an aggregate of 56.7% of our revenue'
- LOWCustomerone reseller (12.4% of revenue)12%10-K Item 1: 'One of our resellers accounted for 12.4% and 11.3% of our revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively'
- LOWCustomersecond reseller (11.2% of revenue)11%10-K Item 1: 'A second reseller accounted for 11.2% of our revenue in fiscal year 2025'
- HIGHGeographicinternational customers56%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to customers located outside the U.S. accounted for 56.3% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended October 3, 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicChina28%10-K Item 1A: 'fiscal year 2025 sales to customers in China and the Asia Pacific region accounted for 28.4% and 11.5% of total fiscal year 2025 sales, respectively'
- LOWGeographicAsia Pacific region12%10-K Item 1A: 'fiscal year 2025 sales to customers in China and the Asia Pacific region accounted for 28.4% and 11.5% of total fiscal year 2025 sales, respectively'
- HIGHSuppliersingle foundry per process10-K Item 1: 'wafers procured from merchant foundries for a particular process technology are generally sourced through a single foundry on which we rely for all of our wafers in that process'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Rating Breakdown
2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Wait for pullback to $275.13. BUY gates pass at $284.94, but concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%) and concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $275.13 (Ma50 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 60, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. | News modifier +2 (HOLD_IF_HOLDING → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $355.80 (+24.9%), stop $246.69 (−15.5%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Score 6.3/10, moderate confidence.
Take-profit target: $355.80 (+24.9% upside). Target $355.80 (+24.9%), stop $246.69 (−15.5%), A.R:R 1.7:1. Stop-loss: $246.69.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
MACOM Technology Solutions Hold trades at a P/E of 87.7 (forward 33.6). TrendMatrix value score: 3.7/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).
24 analysts cover MTSI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $395.
What does MACOM Technology Solutions Hold do?MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog semiconductor products — amplifiers, ICs, diodes, switches,...
MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog semiconductor products — amplifiers, ICs, diodes, switches, and photonic components — for Industrial and Defense, Data Center, and Telecom markets, serving over 6,000 end customers. The company uses a fab-lite model with internal GaAs, GaN, and InP fabrication in North America and France plus external foundry partners; international customers represented 56.3% of fiscal year 2025 revenue.