MACOM Technology Solutions combines 22% revenue growth and a near-perfect Piotroski score with a wide economic moat in semiconductors, but its current price has already reached the analyst target, leaving negative asymmetry and limiting the risk-reward for new positions.
Thesis pillars
- Exceptional Growth And Moat→Stable
- Customer Geographic Concentration Risk↑Improving
- Negative Price Asymmetry→Stable
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Nov 14, 2025· older than 90 days
MACOM Technology Solutions Hold (MTSI) Stock Analysis
Technology · Semiconductors
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $235.49 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%).
MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog semiconductor products — amplifiers, ICs, diodes, switches, and photonic components — for Industrial and Defense, Data Center, and Telecom markets, serving over 6,000 end customers. The company uses a fab-lite model with... Read more
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $235.49 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 6/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and earnings proximity 1d<=7d. Suitability: speculative.
Recent developments
updated Oct 28, 2026Recent Developments — MACOM Technology Solutions Hold
Latest news
- NEWS MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) Could Be 15% Undervalued After Data Center Growth Optimism - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) Could Be 15% Undervalued After Data Center Growth Optimism - Simply Wall Stre — Simply Wall Street Oct 28, 2026 positive
- NEWS MACOM Rose 6% as Raymond James Upgrade Calls 30% October Slide an Opportunity - TIKR.com — TIKR.com Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS Macom Technology (MTSI) Gains Premarket on Raymond James Upgrade, Highlights Growth Beyond Datacenters - GuruFocus — GuruFocus Oct 27, 2026 positive
- NEWS MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (NasdaqGS:MTSI) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall St — Simply Wall St Oct 27, 2026 neutral
Latest item Oct 28, 2026 · Generated 2026-11-04T11:39:50Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- HIGHCustomertop 10 customers57%10-K Item 1A: 'sales to our top 10 direct and distribution customers accounted for an aggregate of 56.7% of our revenue'
- LOWCustomerone reseller (12.4% of revenue)12%10-K Item 1: 'One of our resellers accounted for 12.4% and 11.3% of our revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively'
- LOWCustomersecond reseller (11.2% of revenue)11%10-K Item 1: 'A second reseller accounted for 11.2% of our revenue in fiscal year 2025'
- HIGHGeographicinternational customers56%10-K Item 1A: 'Sales to customers located outside the U.S. accounted for 56.3% of our revenue for the fiscal year ended October 3, 2025'
- MEDIUMGeographicChina28%10-K Item 1A: 'fiscal year 2025 sales to customers in China and the Asia Pacific region accounted for 28.4% and 11.5% of total fiscal year 2025 sales, respectively'
- LOWGeographicAsia Pacific region12%10-K Item 1A: 'fiscal year 2025 sales to customers in China and the Asia Pacific region accounted for 28.4% and 11.5% of total fiscal year 2025 sales, respectively'
- HIGHSuppliersingle foundry per process10-K Item 1: 'wafers procured from merchant foundries for a particular process technology are generally sourced through a single foundry on which we rely for all of our wafers in that process'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker·1 ceiling hit
Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Sell if holding. Momentum 2.4/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $235.49 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $219.01. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target: $346.22 (+47.0% upside). Prior stop was $219.01. Stop-loss: $219.01.
Concentration risk — Customer: top 10 customers (56.7%); Concentration risk — Geographic: international customers (56.3%); Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.
MACOM Technology Solutions Hold trades at a P/E of 75.0 (forward 27.6). TrendMatrix value score: 4.3/10. Verdict: Sell.
25 analysts rate MTSI, with a consensus score of 4.0/5. 16 analysts publish price targets averaging $385.
What does MACOM Technology Solutions Hold do?MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog semiconductor products — amplifiers, ICs, diodes, switches,...
MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog semiconductor products — amplifiers, ICs, diodes, switches, and photonic components — for Industrial and Defense, Data Center, and Telecom markets, serving over 6,000 end customers. The company uses a fab-lite model with internal GaAs, GaN, and InP fabrication in North America and France plus external foundry partners; international customers represented 56.3% of fiscal year 2025 revenue.