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MACOM Technology Solutions Hold (MTSI) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Technology · Semiconductors

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $352.80 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8.

MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for Industrial & Defense, Data Center, and Telecom markets from facilities across North America, Europe, and Asia. Products — amplifiers, optical DSPs, ICs, and RF components — are sold to... Read more

$352.80+11.7% A.UpsideScore 5.4/10#24 of 45 Semiconductors
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield0.28%
Stop $327.27Target $393.22(resistance)A.R:R -0.3:1
Analyst target$389.43+10.4%14 analysts
$393.22our TP
$352.80price
$389.43mean
$450

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $352.80 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 80d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Recent Developments — MACOM Technology Solutions Hold

Generated 2026-05-20T20:21:21Z.

Thesis

Rewards
Strong growth profile
Positive momentum
Wide economic moat
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8
Expensive valuation

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)158.5
P/E (Fwd)54.9
Mkt Cap$28.7B
EV/EBITDA120.9
Profit Mgn16.5%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth22.5%
Beta1.60
DividendNone
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomertop reseller (12.4% of revenue)12%
    10-K Item 1: 'One of our resellers accounted for 12.4% and 11.3% of our revenue in fiscal years 2025 and 2024, respectively'
  • MEDIUMCustomersecond reseller (11.2% of revenue)11%
    10-K Item 1: 'A second reseller accounted for 11.2% of our revenue in fiscal year 2025 but did not exceed 10% in fiscal years 2024 and 2023.'
  • MEDIUMGeographicChina28%
    10-K Item 1A: 'fiscal year 2025 sales to customers in China and the Asia Pacific region accounted for 28.4% and 11.5% of total fiscal year 2025 sales, respectively'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Priced at a premium — multiples above sector norms. Needs delivery on growth + margins to justify.static

Pe
0.0
Ps
0.0
Forward Pe
2.1
Analyst Target
4.0
Peg Ratio
5.9
Forward P/E: 54.9xPEG: 1.28Expensive valuation

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
1.3
Growth Rank
5.3
Quality Rank
6.0
GatesA.R:R -0.2=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 80d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
78 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $260.85Resistance $401.25

Price Targets

$327
$393
A.Upside+11.5%
A.R:R-0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-3.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-06 (80d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTSI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $352.80 — A.R:R is negative (-0.2) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8. Chart setup: No recognized chart pattern (not a breakout, bounce, continuation, recovery, falling knife, or range) — technicals mixed. Prior stop was $327.27. Score 5.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MTSI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $393.22 (+11.7% upside). Prior stop was $327.27. Stop-loss: $327.27.

What are the risks of investing in MTSI?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Technology): -0.8; Expensive valuation.

Is MTSI overvalued or undervalued?

MACOM Technology Solutions Hold trades at a P/E of 158.5 (forward 54.9). TrendMatrix value score: 2.4/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MTSI?

23 analysts cover MTSI with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $389.

What does MACOM Technology Solutions Hold do?MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for Industrial & Defense,...

MACOM Technology Solutions designs and manufactures analog and mixed-signal semiconductors for Industrial & Defense, Data Center, and Telecom markets from facilities across North America, Europe, and Asia. Products — amplifiers, optical DSPs, ICs, and RF components — are sold to 6,000+ end customers, with two resellers each exceeding 10% of fiscal 2025 revenue.

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